日本的政府债券市场面临自2008年金融崩溃以来的最严重的流动性危机

这引发了人们对更广泛的经济传染的担忧，这种传染可能会渗透到全球加密货币市场中。

Japan’s government bond market is facing its worst liquidity crisis since the 2008 financial meltdown, prompting fears of a broader economic contagion that could ripple into global crypto markets.

日本政府债券市场正面临着自2008年金融崩溃以来的最严重的流动性危机，这引起了人们对更广泛的经济传染的担忧，可能会侵入全球加密货币市场。

As bond yields surge and long-standing financial structures unravel, analysts are sounding the alarm.

随着债券产量激增和长期存在的金融结构破裂，分析师正在发出警报。

In just 45 days, the country’s 30-year government bond yield has surged 100 basis points (bps) to a record 3.20%. Meanwhile, the 40-year bond, previously seen as a “safe” investment, has shed more than 20% in value, with over $500 billion in market losses.

在短短45天内，该国的30年政府债券收益率飙升了100个基点（BP），达到创纪录的3.20％。同时，以前被视为“安全”投资的40年期债券的价值超过20％，市场亏损超过5000亿美元。

According to analyst Financelot, liquidity in the bond market has also dropped to levels last seen during the Lehman Brothers collapse, suggesting a potential impending financial crisis.

根据分析师Financerot的说法，债券市场的流动性也已降至雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）崩溃期间最后一次看到的水平，这表明潜在的金融危机可能存在。

“Japan’s bond market liquidity has dropped to 2008 Lehman crisis levels. Are we about to experience another financial crisis?” asked the analyst on X (Twitter).

“日本的债券市场流动性已降至2008年雷曼危机水平。我们是否要遇到另一种金融危机？” X（Twitter）上的分析师问。

The crisis traces back to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) recent policy pivot. After years of aggressive bond-buying, the BOJ abruptly pulled back, flooding the market with supply and driving yields higher.

危机追溯到日本银行（BOJ）最近的政策枢纽。经过多年积极的债券购买，棚屋突然撤退，供应和驾驶收益率更高。

The central bank still holds $4.1 trillion in government bonds, 52% of the total outstanding. With this, its grip on the market has distorted pricing and investor expectations.

中央银行仍然持有4.1万亿美元的政府债券，占未偿还总额的52％。这样，它对市场的控制已经扭曲了定价和投资者的期望。

Japan’s total debt has ballooned to $7.8 trillion, pushing its debt-to-GDP ratio to a record 260%, more than double that of the US.

日本的总债务已激增至7.8万亿美元，将其债务与GDP比率提高到了创纪录的260％，是美国的两倍以上。

The fallout has been swift. Japan’s real GDP contracted 0.7% in Q1 2025, more than double the expected 0.3% drop.

辐射一直很迅速。日本的真正GDP在第1季度2025年收缩了0.7％，是预期下降0.3％的两倍以上。

Moreover, CPI inflation accelerated to 3.6% in April. Real wages, however, plunged 2.1% year-over-year (YoY), intensifying fears of stagflation.

此外，CPI通货膨胀率在4月加速至3.6％。然而，实际工资同比同比下降2.1％，这加剧了对散落的恐惧。

“Japan needs a major restructuring,” warned The Kobeissi Letter, highlighting the fragility of the nation’s economic model.

“日本需要重大的重组，” Kobeissi信件警告说，强调了国家经济模式的脆弱性。

Bitcoin Emerges as a Safe Haven Amid Yen Carry Trade Unwind

日元带来的避风港，比特币出现了

As global investors digest these warning signs, attention is turning to the crypto markets, specifically Bitcoin. The pioneer crypto is progressively presenting as a potential refuge from bond market volatility.

随着全球投资者消化这些警告标志，注意力转向加密货币市场，特别是比特币。先驱加密货币逐渐成为债券市场波动的潜在避难所。

The yen carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad, is now also coming under scrutiny.

日元携带贸易是一种策略，在这种策略中，投资者借用低收益的日元来投资于国外的高产资产，现在也受到了审查。

According to Wolf Street, surging Japanese yields and a weakening economy are squeezing these highly leveraged positions.

根据沃尔夫街（Wolf Street）的说法，日本人的收益率飙升和经济趋势正在挤压这些高度杠杆的职位。

“The huge mess is coming home to roost,” the outlet wrote, noting that the unwind of this trade could trigger a global risk-off event.

媒体写道：“巨大的混乱正在回家。

That shift is already visible. As yields rise in Japan and the UK, demand for Bitcoin has soared in both regions.

这种转变已经可见。随着日本和英国的收益率上升，对比特币的需求在两个地区都飙升。

“Is it a coincidence that the UK and Japan are seeing huge demand for bitcoin exposure?” asked analyst James Van Straten.

“英国和日本对比特币暴露的需求巨大，这是巧合吗？”分析师詹姆斯·范·斯特拉滕（James van Straten）问。

The analyst added that the 30-year UK gilt yield was nearing a 27-year high.

分析师补充说，英国30年的镀金收益率接近27年。

Meanwhile, Cauê Oliveira, Head of Research at BlockTrendsBR, observed a growing positive correlation between bond volatility and Bitcoin flows, with Bitwise’s European Head of Research, Andre Dragosche, agreeing.

同时，BlockTrendsbr研究负责人CauêOliveira观察到键波动率与比特币流之间的正相关，与Bitwise的欧洲研究负责人Andre Dragosche同意。

“A lot of big players [are] rotating from bonds to BTC,” Oliveira stated.

奥利维拉说：“许多大型球员正在从债券转向BTC。”

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $109,632 as of this writing, down 0.17% in the last 24 hours.

Beincrypto数据显示，比特币在撰写本文时的交易价格为109,632美元，在过去24小时内下跌了0.17％。

Still, Bitcoin’s role comes with its own risk. BeInCrypto recently reported an analysis of the yen carry trade, which warned that disorderly unwinds could pressure crypto assets alongside traditional markets. This is especially true if a global flight to safety prompts USD strength and capital outflows from risk assets.

尽管如此，比特币的角色仍具有自身的风险。 Beincrypto最近报道了对日元携带贸易的分析，该分析警告说，无序的休息可能会向传统市场施加压力加密资产。如果全球飞往安全的航班促使美元的实力和资本资本流出，则尤其如此。

Yet, in the long term, Japan’s debt crisis may strengthen Bitcoin’s case as a hedge against monetary instability.

然而，从长远来看，日本的债务危机可能会加强比特币的案件，以纪念金钱不稳定。

As traditional “safe” assets like long-dated sovereign bonds falter, institutions are increasingly considering digital assets viable alternatives.

随着诸如长期君主债券（如久远的君主债券）的传统“安全”资产的步履蹒跚，机构越来越考虑数字资产可行的替代方案。