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2025年5月22日，比特币的价格飙升至110,000美元以上，打破了1月20日的109599 USDT的历史高点。

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surged to over 110,000 USDT on May 22, breaking the historical high of 109,599 USDT reached on January 20. This scene reminds me of the episode in November 2021. At that time, Bitcoin quickly fell back after briefly crossing the high point at the beginning of the year, and a long and profound bear market cycle began.

5月22日，比特币（BTC）的价格飙升至110,000 USDT，打破了1月20日的历史高点109,599 USDT。这个场景使我想起了2021年11月的这一事件。当时，比特币在一年开始短暂地越过高点之后迅速倒退了，并开始了漫长的熊市周期。

Now the market seems to have been pushed to the turning point of destiny again: will it break through again and open up a new round of rising space, or will it repeat itself like history, fall into a double top market after a "false breakthrough", and finally usher in a deep correction?

现在，市场似乎再次被推到了命运的转折点：它会再次突破并打开新的上升空间，还是像历史一样重演，在“错误的突破”之后跌入双层市场，最后迎接了深刻的纠正？

This is a question that Bitcoin cannot avoid whenever it approaches its historical high. In the past few rounds of bull markets, we have repeatedly seen similar structures: the climax is coming, market sentiment is excited, and discussions about "whether the cycle has reached its peak" are coming one after another.

这是一个问题，比特币接近其历史高处时无法避免。在过去的几轮牛市中，我们一再看到类似的结构：高潮即将到来，市场情绪令人兴奋，并且关于“该周期是否达到顶峰的讨论”正在接一个地来。

In this round, although the rise and rhythm are vaguely familiar, the deeper market structure has changed significantly.

在这一轮中，尽管上升和节奏含糊不清，但更深层次的市场结构已经发生了很大变化。

Prices are repeating themselves, but the market is no longer what it was yesterday.

价格正在重演，但市场不再是昨天。

In this context, should we continue to believe that the "cyclical law" brought about by halving will still dominate the fate of Bitcoin? Or should we admit that a new rhythm has quietly unfolded in ETF funds, on-chain structures and macro narratives?

在这种情况下，我们是否应该继续相信，减半带来的“周期性定律”仍然会主导比特币的命运？还是我们应该承认，在ETF基金，链结构和宏观叙事中，新的节奏悄悄地展现出来？

Back to the most essential observation method, perhaps the data on the chain, the mirror image of history, and the traces of behavior can still provide us with some kind of cyclical enlightenment.

回到最重要的观察方法，也许是链上的数据，历史的镜像以及行为痕迹仍然可以为我们提供某种周期性的启蒙。

Is the current wave of rise the final sprint of cyclical inertia, or a new starting point after the reconstruction of the cyclical structure?

当前的上升浪潮是周期性惯性的最终冲刺还是周期性结构重建后的新起点？

Perhaps the answer is hidden in the context of the data.

也许答案隐藏在数据的上下文中。

Is the market repeating its historical path?

市场正在重复其历史道路吗？

Although the historical price trend of Bitcoin has been volatile, it can be roughly divided into the following typical cycles of "halving drive + bull-bear rotation":

尽管比特币的历史价格趋势易波动，但可以大致分为以下典型的“减半驱动器 +牛旋转”的周期：

Since 2011, the price of Bitcoin has been evolving according to the logic of "halving driven - supply and demand imbalance - bull market outbreak - top correction". Each cycle ends with a higher price peak, and the double top structure in 2021 is undoubtedly the most worthy of warning.

自2011年以来，比特币的价格一直在根据“减少驱动和需求失衡 - 牛市爆发 - 最高校正”的逻辑而发展。每个周期都以更高的价格峰结束，而2021年的双层结构无疑是最值得的警告。

Bitcoin hit its first interim high in April 2021. At that time, driven by the favorable stimulus of Coinbase's listing, the continuation of loose monetary policy, and the continuous accumulation of funds by Grayscale GBTC, market sentiment was high and the price broke through the $60,000 mark for the first time.

比特币在2021年4月达到了第一个临时高点。当时，由于Coinbase上市的有利刺激，宽松的货币政策的延续以及Grayscale GBTC持续积累了资金，市场情绪很高，首次获得了60,000美元的价格。

But this high point did not last long. After entering May, with the Federal Reserve releasing forward-looking signals of balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes, coupled with the policy risks of China's large-scale withdrawal of domestic mines, the Bitcoin market quickly fell into a correction, falling to around $30,000 in less than three months, completing a deep adjustment in the middle.

但是这个高点并没有持续很长时间。进入梅之后，随着美联储释放了降低资产负债表和利率上升的前瞻性信号，再加上中国大规模撤出国内矿山的政策风险，比特币市场迅速降至更正，在不到三个月的时间内跌至30,000美元，并在中间进行了深度调整。

A few months later, the market gradually digested the negative sentiment and bottomed out in late summer. Driven by positive narratives and capital inflows, such as El Salvador's official inclusion of Bitcoin as legal tender, some investors' view of it as a potential hedging tool amid growing global inflation concerns, and the market's strong optimistic expectations for the approval of the first Bitcoin futures ETF in the United States, the market regained its momentum and briefly surged to an all-time high of about $69,000 on November 10, then quickly fell back, forming an obvious "double top structure" spanning several months together with the high point in April.

几个月后，市场逐渐消化了负面情绪，并在夏末触底。在积极的叙事和资本流入的驱动下，例如萨尔维德（El Salvador）正式将比特币作为法定货币招标，一些投资者认为它是一种潜在的对冲工具，这是全球通货膨胀率的日益增加，而市场对市场对批准的强烈乐观期望以及在美国的首个比特币期货期货的批准，然后在美国，该公司的势头迅速恢复了，并在10，000年度中迅速升起了$ 69的成绩。显而易见的“双层结构”跨越了几个月，四月的高点。

Ultimately, this triple resonance of new highs in price, active cashing on the chain, and shrinking demand constitutes a typical "false breakthrough" pattern. Bitcoin quickly fell back after a brief peak, starting a downward cycle. This structure is technically presented as "local new highs + volume divergence + instant reversal", which is a typical double-top signal and also provides an important precedent for the current market approaching historical highs.

最终，新高价，链上的积极兑现以及需求缩小的三重共振构成了典型的“错误突破”模式。短暂的高峰后，比特币很快就退缩了，开始了下降周期。该结构在技术上被称为“本地新的高 +体积差异 +即时逆转”，这是一个典型的双顶信号，也为当前接近历史高点的市场提供了重要的先例。

Will history converge?

历史会融合吗？

The slope and shape of the current trend are quite similar to those on the eve of November 2021. What is more noteworthy is that multiple indicators on the chain are releasing signals of structural convergence.

当前趋势的斜率和形状与2021年11月前夕的斜率和形状非常相似。更值得注意的是，链上的多个指标正在释放结构收敛的信号。

The latest data shows that the MVRV of long-term holders has climbed to 3.3, approaching the "greed red zone" defined by Glassnode (above 3.5); the MVRV of short-term holders has also risen sharply from the low of 0.82 to 1.13, which means that most short-term funds in the market have re-entered the floating profit range. From the perspective of behavioral finance, this structural change is a necessary condition for the formation of top pressure: when the

最新数据表明，长期持有人的MVRV已攀升至3.3，接近玻璃节定义的“贪婪红色区域”（3.5）；短期持有人的MVRV也从0.82的低点急剧上升到1.13，这意味着市场上大多数短期基金都重新进入了浮动利润范围。从行为融资的角度来看，这种结构变化是形成最高压力的必要条件：当