Chandlerz，預科新聞

2025年5月22日，比特幣的價格飆升至110,000美元以上，打破了1月20日的109599 USDT的歷史高點。

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surged to over 110,000 USDT on May 22, breaking the historical high of 109,599 USDT reached on January 20. This scene reminds me of the episode in November 2021. At that time, Bitcoin quickly fell back after briefly crossing the high point at the beginning of the year, and a long and profound bear market cycle began.

5月22日，比特幣（BTC）的價格飆升至110,000 USDT，打破了1月20日的歷史高點109,599 USDT。這個場景使我想起了2021年11月的這一事件。當時，比特幣在一年開始短暫地越過高點之後迅速倒退了，並開始了漫長的熊市週期。

Now the market seems to have been pushed to the turning point of destiny again: will it break through again and open up a new round of rising space, or will it repeat itself like history, fall into a double top market after a "false breakthrough", and finally usher in a deep correction?

現在，市場似乎再次被推到了命運的轉折點：它會再次突破並打開新的上升空間，還是像歷史一樣重演，在“錯誤的突破”之後跌入雙層市場，最後迎接了深刻的糾正？

This is a question that Bitcoin cannot avoid whenever it approaches its historical high. In the past few rounds of bull markets, we have repeatedly seen similar structures: the climax is coming, market sentiment is excited, and discussions about "whether the cycle has reached its peak" are coming one after another.

這是一個問題，比特幣接近其歷史高處時無法避免。在過去的幾輪牛市中，我們一再看到類似的結構：高潮即將到來，市場情緒令人興奮，並且關於“該週期是否達到頂峰的討論”正在接一個地來。

In this round, although the rise and rhythm are vaguely familiar, the deeper market structure has changed significantly.

在這一輪中，儘管上升和節奏含糊不清，但更深層次的市場結構已經發生了很大變化。

Prices are repeating themselves, but the market is no longer what it was yesterday.

價格正在重演，但市場不再是昨天。

In this context, should we continue to believe that the "cyclical law" brought about by halving will still dominate the fate of Bitcoin? Or should we admit that a new rhythm has quietly unfolded in ETF funds, on-chain structures and macro narratives?

在這種情況下，我們是否應該繼續相信，減半帶來的“週期性定律”仍然會主導比特幣的命運？還是我們應該承認，在ETF基金，鏈結構和宏觀敘事中，新的節奏悄悄地展現出來？

Back to the most essential observation method, perhaps the data on the chain, the mirror image of history, and the traces of behavior can still provide us with some kind of cyclical enlightenment.

回到最重要的觀察方法，也許是鏈上的數據，歷史的鏡像以及行為痕跡仍然可以為我們提供某種週期性的啟蒙。

Is the current wave of rise the final sprint of cyclical inertia, or a new starting point after the reconstruction of the cyclical structure?

當前的上升浪潮是周期性慣性的最終衝刺還是周期性結構重建後的新起點？

Perhaps the answer is hidden in the context of the data.

也許答案隱藏在數據的上下文中。

Is the market repeating its historical path?

市場正在重複其歷史道路嗎？

Although the historical price trend of Bitcoin has been volatile, it can be roughly divided into the following typical cycles of "halving drive + bull-bear rotation":

儘管比特幣的歷史價格趨勢易波動，但可以大致分為以下典型的“減半驅動器 +牛旋轉”的周期：

Since 2011, the price of Bitcoin has been evolving according to the logic of "halving driven - supply and demand imbalance - bull market outbreak - top correction". Each cycle ends with a higher price peak, and the double top structure in 2021 is undoubtedly the most worthy of warning.

自2011年以來，比特幣的價格一直在根據“減少驅動和需求失衡 - 牛市爆發 - 最高校正”的邏輯而發展。每個週期都以更高的價格峰結束，而2021年的雙層結構無疑是最值得的警告。

Bitcoin hit its first interim high in April 2021. At that time, driven by the favorable stimulus of Coinbase's listing, the continuation of loose monetary policy, and the continuous accumulation of funds by Grayscale GBTC, market sentiment was high and the price broke through the $60,000 mark for the first time.

比特幣在2021年4月達到了第一個臨時高點。當時，由於Coinbase上市的有利刺激，寬鬆的貨幣政策的延續以及Grayscale GBTC持續積累了資金，市場情緒很高，首次獲得了60,000美元的價格。

But this high point did not last long. After entering May, with the Federal Reserve releasing forward-looking signals of balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes, coupled with the policy risks of China's large-scale withdrawal of domestic mines, the Bitcoin market quickly fell into a correction, falling to around $30,000 in less than three months, completing a deep adjustment in the middle.

但是這個高點並沒有持續很長時間。進入梅之後，隨著美聯儲釋放了降低資產負債表和利率上升的前瞻性信號，再加上中國大規模撤出國內礦山的政策風險，比特幣市場迅速降至更正，在不到三個月的時間內跌至30,000美元，並在中間進行了深度調整。

A few months later, the market gradually digested the negative sentiment and bottomed out in late summer. Driven by positive narratives and capital inflows, such as El Salvador's official inclusion of Bitcoin as legal tender, some investors' view of it as a potential hedging tool amid growing global inflation concerns, and the market's strong optimistic expectations for the approval of the first Bitcoin futures ETF in the United States, the market regained its momentum and briefly surged to an all-time high of about $69,000 on November 10, then quickly fell back, forming an obvious "double top structure" spanning several months together with the high point in April.

幾個月後，市場逐漸消化了負面情緒，並在夏末觸底。在積極的敘事和資本流入的驅動下，例如薩爾維德（El Salvador）正式將比特幣作為法定貨幣招標，一些投資者認為它是一種潛在的對沖工具，這是全球通貨膨脹率的日益增加，而市場對市場對批准的強烈樂觀期望以及在美國的首個比特幣期貨期貨的批准，然後在美國，該公司的勢頭迅速恢復了，並在10，000年度中迅速升起了$ 69的成績。顯而易見的“雙層結構”跨越了幾個月，四月的高點。

Ultimately, this triple resonance of new highs in price, active cashing on the chain, and shrinking demand constitutes a typical "false breakthrough" pattern. Bitcoin quickly fell back after a brief peak, starting a downward cycle. This structure is technically presented as "local new highs + volume divergence + instant reversal", which is a typical double-top signal and also provides an important precedent for the current market approaching historical highs.

最終，新高價，鏈上的積極兌現以及需求縮小的三重共振構成了典型的“錯誤突破”模式。短暫的高峰後，比特幣很快就退縮了，開始了下降週期。該結構在技術上被稱為“本地新的高 +體積差異 +即時逆轉”，這是一個典型的雙頂信號，也為當前接近歷史高點的市場提供了重要的先例。

Will history converge?

歷史會融合嗎？

The slope and shape of the current trend are quite similar to those on the eve of November 2021. What is more noteworthy is that multiple indicators on the chain are releasing signals of structural convergence.

當前趨勢的斜率和形狀與2021年11月前夕的斜率和形狀非常相似。更值得注意的是，鏈上的多個指標正在釋放結構收斂的信號。

The latest data shows that the MVRV of long-term holders has climbed to 3.3, approaching the "greed red zone" defined by Glassnode (above 3.5); the MVRV of short-term holders has also risen sharply from the low of 0.82 to 1.13, which means that most short-term funds in the market have re-entered the floating profit range. From the perspective of behavioral finance, this structural change is a necessary condition for the formation of top pressure: when the

最新數據表明，長期持有人的MVRV已攀升至3.3，接近玻璃節定義的“貪婪紅色區域”（3.5）；短期持有人的MVRV也從0.82的低點急劇上升到1.13，這意味著市場上大多數短期基金都重新進入了浮動利潤範圍。從行為融資的角度來看，這種結構變化是形成最高壓力的必要條件：當