BTC和XRP 2025年5月的季节性：“五月出售并消失” Maxim Hold？

在传统的金融中，“五月出售并消失”一词反映了5月份退出市场的策略，以避免夏季的平息。但是，这种方法在加密货币的世界中是否成立？特别是领先的资产

In the annals of traditional finance, the adage "Sell in May and go away" is a time-tested maxim, advising traders to exit markets by May to avoid the summer lull. But does this approach hold true in the world of cryptocurrencies, specifically for leading assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP)? Especially with the current market volatility, historical data suggests a far more complex picture.

在传统金融的纪念日中，格言“五月出售”是一个经过时间考验的格言，建议交易者在五月之前退出市场，以避免夏季的平息。但是，这种方法在加密货币的世界中是否正确，特别是针对比特币（BTC）和Ripple（XRP）等领先资产的？尤其是在当前市场波动的情况下，历史数据表明图片要复杂得多。

Since Bitcoin's emergence as a mainstream financial asset, May has consistently been a month worth watching. Reliable data from StatMuse and Binance reveals that in May 2017, Bitcoin crossed the $2,000 mark for the first time, rising from approximately $1,348 to $2,286. However, not every May has delivered gains. In 2018, BTC fell nearly 20%, dropping from $9,200 to $7,494. The most dramatic correction occurred in May 2021, when the price plunged from $58,000 to just $37,332 amid China's crackdown on crypto mining.

自比特币作为主流金融资产的出现以来，梅一直是一个月值得一看的。 STATMUSE和BINANCE的可靠数据显示，2017年5月，比特币首次越过了2,000美元，从大约1,348美元上升到2,286美元。但是，并非每个人都会带来收益。 2018年，BTC下降了近20％，从9,200美元下降到7,494美元。最引人注目的更正发生在2021年5月，当时价格从58,000美元下降到仅37,332美元，而中国对加密矿山采矿的镇压。

Since 2017, May has brought mixed fortunes for Bitcoin. While the saying "Sell in May" might hold some truth, it's best to consider the broader context and not rely solely on seasonality for investment decisions.

自2017年以来，梅为比特币带来了混杂的命运。虽然“五月出售”的俗话说可能会有一些真理，但最好考虑更广泛的背景，而不是仅仅依靠季节性来进行投资决策。

Since 2017, May has brought mixed fortunes for Bitcoin. While the saying "Sell in May and go away" might hold some truth, it's best to consider the broader context and not rely solely on seasonality for investment decisions.

自2017年以来，梅为比特币带来了混杂的命运。虽然“五月出售并消失”的话可能会持有一些真理，但最好考虑更广泛的环境，而不是仅仅依靠季节性来进行投资决策。

Since the beginning of 2024, BTC has displayed impressive resilience, bouncing back from lows of $15,000 in November 2022 to highs of $67,000 in April 2024. This rally was fueled by several factors, including the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remaining below key resistance levels throughout the first quarter and a decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2024.

自2024年初以来，BTC表现出了令人印象深刻的韧性，从2022年11月15,000美元的低点弹回，到2024年4月的高价。这次集会受到了多种因素的推动，包括美元指数（DXY）在第一季度的关键阻力水平下降到整个季度的下降，并在整个US消费者价格下降，并在3月202日（CPI）（CPI）（CPI）（2024）。

As May drew to a close, the market observed a notable increase in the amount of Bitcoin transferred from cold wallets to exchanges, according to data from Glassnode. This is a classic signal of potential profit-taking, especially as BTC had just touched the $67,000 mark at the end of April.

根据GlassNode的数据，梅（May）结束时，市场观察到从冷钱包转移到交易所的比特币数量显着增加。这是潜在利润的经典信号，尤其是BTC刚刚在4月底触及了67,000美元的成绩。

At the same time, the funding rate—a measure of the difference between derivatives prices and spot prices—went negative on major platforms like Binance and OKX. This shift indicates that speculative sentiment has tilted toward short-term bearish expectations.

同时，资金率（衡量衍生品价格和现货价格之间的差异）的衡量标准对binance和OKX等主要平台的负面影响。这种转变表明投机性情绪已倾向于短期看跌期望。

Despite this, institutional capital remains steady. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's iShares and Fidelity Advantage, have not experienced significant outflows. This supports the view that most selling pressure is coming from retail investors and short-term traders, while long-term holders continue to view BTC as a store of value amid persistent inflation.

尽管如此，机构资本仍保持稳定。斑点比特币ETF，包括贝莱德的iShares和保真度优势，没有经历大量的外流。这支持了这样一种观点，即大多数销售压力来自散户投资者和短期交易者，而长期持有人则继续将BTC视为持续通货膨胀的价值存储。

Moreover, seasonality is another important factor. Data cited by Matrixport shows that Bitcoin historically underperforms in May, with average returns skewing negative across several years. This seasonal trend reinforces a more defensive market posture, especially as global financial markets remain under pressure from inflation and prolonged monetary tightening.

而且，季节性是另一个重要因素。 Matrixport引用的数据表明，比特币历史上表现不佳，在几年中，平均收益偏差为负。这种季节性趋势加强了防御性市场的姿势，尤其是当全球金融市场受到通货膨胀和延长货币收紧的压力时。

Some analysts warn that the "Sell in May" effect could resurface strongly this year unless a clear macroeconomic catalyst emerges in the short term.

一些分析人士警告说，除非短期内出现了明显的宏观经济催化剂，否则今年的“销售”效果可能会很大。

May 2025: Between Risks and Optimism

2025年5月：风险和乐观之间

As May 2025 begins, Bitcoin is trading around $94,598, just shy of its all-time high set in early April. This strong rally is accompanied by robust liquidity and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Similarly, XRP has reached $2.17, marking an impressive recovery from sub-$1 levels just six months ago.

随着2025年5月的开始，比特币的交易价格约为94,598美元，比4月初的历史最高水平差。这种强大的集会伴随着强大的流动性，并继续流入斑点比特币ETF。同样，XRP达到了2.17美元，这标志着六个月前从低于1美元的水平恢复了令人印象深刻的恢复。

However, despite these bullish technical signals, macroeconomic headwinds persist. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its benchmark interest rate above 5% and has reiterated that no policy pivot is expected in 2025. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to its highest level since October 2023, dampening demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and XRP.

但是，尽管这些看好这些技术信号，但宏观经济的逆风仍然存在。美国联邦储备的基准利率超过5％，并重申，预计将在2025年没有政策枢纽。与此同时，美元指数（DXY）自2023年10月以来已攀升至最高水平，这会削弱对比特币和XRP等非收益资产的需求。

On a positive note, data from on-chain analytics platforms such as CryptoQuant indicates that BTC outflows from exchanges continue to rise. The number of wallets holding BTC for over 12 months has reached an all-time high, signaling long-term investor conviction that the bull trend remains intact, despite monetary tightening and global economic uncertainty.

从积极的角度来看，诸如加密货币之类的链分析平台的数据表明，交易所的BTC流出不断上升。持有BTC的钱包数量超过12个月已经达到了历史最高的，这表明了长期投资者的信念，即尽管货币收紧和全球经济不确定性，牛市趋势仍然完好无损。

Prevailing Market Sentiment

盛行的市场情绪

Based on current technical analysis and macroeconomic conditions, analysts have outlined two clear scenarios for the crypto market in Q2 2025.

基于当前的技术分析和宏观经济状况，分析师概述了第二季度2025年第2季度加密市场的两个明确方案。

In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could extend its upward momentum and reach the psychological $100,000 milestone if the upcoming May CPI data shows U.S

在看涨的情况下，如果即将到来的CPI数据显示我们