BTC and XRP May 2025 Seasonality: Will the “Sell in May and Go Away” Maxim Hold?

In traditional finance, the phrase “Sell in May and go away” reflects a strategy of exiting markets in May to avoid the summer lull. But does this approach hold true in the world of cryptocurrencies? Especially for leading assets

In the annals of traditional finance, the adage "Sell in May and go away" is a time-tested maxim, advising traders to exit markets by May to avoid the summer lull. But does this approach hold true in the world of cryptocurrencies, specifically for leading assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP)? Especially with the current market volatility, historical data suggests a far more complex picture.

Since Bitcoin's emergence as a mainstream financial asset, May has consistently been a month worth watching. Reliable data from StatMuse and Binance reveals that in May 2017, Bitcoin crossed the $2,000 mark for the first time, rising from approximately $1,348 to $2,286. However, not every May has delivered gains. In 2018, BTC fell nearly 20%, dropping from $9,200 to $7,494. The most dramatic correction occurred in May 2021, when the price plunged from $58,000 to just $37,332 amid China's crackdown on crypto mining.

Since 2017, May has brought mixed fortunes for Bitcoin. While the saying "Sell in May" might hold some truth, it's best to consider the broader context and not rely solely on seasonality for investment decisions.

Since 2017, May has brought mixed fortunes for Bitcoin. While the saying "Sell in May and go away" might hold some truth, it's best to consider the broader context and not rely solely on seasonality for investment decisions.

Since the beginning of 2024, BTC has displayed impressive resilience, bouncing back from lows of $15,000 in November 2022 to highs of $67,000 in April 2024. This rally was fueled by several factors, including the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remaining below key resistance levels throughout the first quarter and a decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2024.

As May drew to a close, the market observed a notable increase in the amount of Bitcoin transferred from cold wallets to exchanges, according to data from Glassnode. This is a classic signal of potential profit-taking, especially as BTC had just touched the $67,000 mark at the end of April.

At the same time, the funding rate—a measure of the difference between derivatives prices and spot prices—went negative on major platforms like Binance and OKX. This shift indicates that speculative sentiment has tilted toward short-term bearish expectations.

Despite this, institutional capital remains steady. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's iShares and Fidelity Advantage, have not experienced significant outflows. This supports the view that most selling pressure is coming from retail investors and short-term traders, while long-term holders continue to view BTC as a store of value amid persistent inflation.

Moreover, seasonality is another important factor. Data cited by Matrixport shows that Bitcoin historically underperforms in May, with average returns skewing negative across several years. This seasonal trend reinforces a more defensive market posture, especially as global financial markets remain under pressure from inflation and prolonged monetary tightening.

Some analysts warn that the "Sell in May" effect could resurface strongly this year unless a clear macroeconomic catalyst emerges in the short term.

May 2025: Between Risks and Optimism

As May 2025 begins, Bitcoin is trading around $94,598, just shy of its all-time high set in early April. This strong rally is accompanied by robust liquidity and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Similarly, XRP has reached $2.17, marking an impressive recovery from sub-$1 levels just six months ago.

However, despite these bullish technical signals, macroeconomic headwinds persist. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its benchmark interest rate above 5% and has reiterated that no policy pivot is expected in 2025. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to its highest level since October 2023, dampening demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and XRP.

On a positive note, data from on-chain analytics platforms such as CryptoQuant indicates that BTC outflows from exchanges continue to rise. The number of wallets holding BTC for over 12 months has reached an all-time high, signaling long-term investor conviction that the bull trend remains intact, despite monetary tightening and global economic uncertainty.

Prevailing Market Sentiment

Based on current technical analysis and macroeconomic conditions, analysts have outlined two clear scenarios for the crypto market in Q2 2025.

In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could extend its upward momentum and reach the psychological $100,000 milestone if the upcoming May CPI data shows U.S