BTC和XRP 2025年5月的季節性：“五月出售並消失” Maxim Hold？

在傳統的金融中，“五月出售並消失”一詞反映了5月份退出市場的策略，以避免夏季的平息。但是，這種方法在加密貨幣的世界中是否成立？特別是領先的資產

In the annals of traditional finance, the adage "Sell in May and go away" is a time-tested maxim, advising traders to exit markets by May to avoid the summer lull. But does this approach hold true in the world of cryptocurrencies, specifically for leading assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP)? Especially with the current market volatility, historical data suggests a far more complex picture.

在傳統金融的紀念日中，格言“五月出售”是一個經過時間考驗的格言，建議交易者在五月之前退出市場，以避免夏季的平息。但是，這種方法在加密貨幣的世界中是否正確，特別是針對比特幣（BTC）和Ripple（XRP）等領先資產的？尤其是在當前市場波動的情況下，歷史數據表明圖片要復雜得多。

Since Bitcoin's emergence as a mainstream financial asset, May has consistently been a month worth watching. Reliable data from StatMuse and Binance reveals that in May 2017, Bitcoin crossed the $2,000 mark for the first time, rising from approximately $1,348 to $2,286. However, not every May has delivered gains. In 2018, BTC fell nearly 20%, dropping from $9,200 to $7,494. The most dramatic correction occurred in May 2021, when the price plunged from $58,000 to just $37,332 amid China's crackdown on crypto mining.

自比特幣作為主流金融資產的出現以來，梅一直是一個月值得一看的。 STATMUSE和BINANCE的可靠數據顯示，2017年5月，比特幣首次越過了2,000美元，從大約1,348美元上升到2,286美元。但是，並非每個人都會帶來收益。 2018年，BTC下降了近20％，從9,200美元下降到7,494美元。最引人注目的更正發生在2021年5月，當時價格從58,000美元下降到僅37,332美元，而中國對加密礦山採礦的鎮壓。

Since 2017, May has brought mixed fortunes for Bitcoin. While the saying "Sell in May" might hold some truth, it's best to consider the broader context and not rely solely on seasonality for investment decisions.

自2017年以來，梅為比特幣帶來了混雜的命運。雖然“五月出售”的俗話說可能會有一些真理，但最好考慮更廣泛的背景，而不是僅僅依靠季節性來進行投資決策。

Since 2017, May has brought mixed fortunes for Bitcoin. While the saying "Sell in May and go away" might hold some truth, it's best to consider the broader context and not rely solely on seasonality for investment decisions.

自2017年以來，梅為比特幣帶來了混雜的命運。雖然“五月出售並消失”的話可能會持有一些真理，但最好考慮更廣泛的環境，而不是僅僅依靠季節性來進行投資決策。

Since the beginning of 2024, BTC has displayed impressive resilience, bouncing back from lows of $15,000 in November 2022 to highs of $67,000 in April 2024. This rally was fueled by several factors, including the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remaining below key resistance levels throughout the first quarter and a decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2024.

自2024年初以來，BTC表現出了令人印象深刻的韌性，從2022年11月15,000美元的低點彈回，到2024年4月的高價。這次集會受到了多種因素的推動，包括美元指數（DXY）在第一季度的關鍵阻力水平下降到整個季度的下降，並在整個US消費者價格下降，並在3月202日（CPI）（CPI）（CPI）（2024）。

As May drew to a close, the market observed a notable increase in the amount of Bitcoin transferred from cold wallets to exchanges, according to data from Glassnode. This is a classic signal of potential profit-taking, especially as BTC had just touched the $67,000 mark at the end of April.

根據GlassNode的數據，梅（May）結束時，市場觀察到從冷錢包轉移到交易所的比特幣數量顯著增加。這是潛在利潤的經典信號，尤其是BTC剛剛在4月底觸及了67,000美元的成績。

At the same time, the funding rate—a measure of the difference between derivatives prices and spot prices—went negative on major platforms like Binance and OKX. This shift indicates that speculative sentiment has tilted toward short-term bearish expectations.

同時，資金率（衡量衍生品價格和現貨價格之間的差異）的衡量標準對binance和OKX等主要平台的負面影響。這種轉變表明投機性情緒已傾向於短期看跌期望。

Despite this, institutional capital remains steady. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's iShares and Fidelity Advantage, have not experienced significant outflows. This supports the view that most selling pressure is coming from retail investors and short-term traders, while long-term holders continue to view BTC as a store of value amid persistent inflation.

儘管如此，機構資本仍保持穩定。斑點比特幣ETF，包括貝萊德的iShares和保真度優勢，沒有經歷大量的外流。這支持了這樣一種觀點，即大多數銷售壓力來自散戶投資者和短期交易者，而長期持有人則繼續將BTC視為持續通貨膨脹的價值存儲。

Moreover, seasonality is another important factor. Data cited by Matrixport shows that Bitcoin historically underperforms in May, with average returns skewing negative across several years. This seasonal trend reinforces a more defensive market posture, especially as global financial markets remain under pressure from inflation and prolonged monetary tightening.

而且，季節性是另一個重要因素。 Matrixport引用的數據表明，比特幣歷史上表現不佳，在幾年中，平均收益偏差為負。這種季節性趨勢加強了防禦性市場的姿勢，尤其是當全球金融市場受到通貨膨脹和延長貨幣收緊的壓力時。

Some analysts warn that the "Sell in May" effect could resurface strongly this year unless a clear macroeconomic catalyst emerges in the short term.

一些分析人士警告說，除非短期內出現了明顯的宏觀經濟催化劑，否則今年的“銷售”效果可能會很大。

May 2025: Between Risks and Optimism

2025年5月：風險和樂觀之間

As May 2025 begins, Bitcoin is trading around $94,598, just shy of its all-time high set in early April. This strong rally is accompanied by robust liquidity and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Similarly, XRP has reached $2.17, marking an impressive recovery from sub-$1 levels just six months ago.

隨著2025年5月的開始，比特幣的交易價格約為94,598美元，比4月初的歷史最高水平差。這種強大的集會伴隨著強大的流動性，並繼續流入斑點比特幣ETF。同樣，XRP達到了2.17美元，這標誌著六個月前從低於1美元的水平恢復了令人印象深刻的恢復。

However, despite these bullish technical signals, macroeconomic headwinds persist. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its benchmark interest rate above 5% and has reiterated that no policy pivot is expected in 2025. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to its highest level since October 2023, dampening demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and XRP.

但是，儘管這些看好這些技術信號，但宏觀經濟的逆風仍然存在。美國聯邦儲備的基準利率超過5％，並重申，預計將在2025年沒有政策樞紐。與此同時，美元指數（DXY）自2023年10月以來已攀升至最高水平，這會削弱對比特幣和XRP等非收益資產的需求。

On a positive note, data from on-chain analytics platforms such as CryptoQuant indicates that BTC outflows from exchanges continue to rise. The number of wallets holding BTC for over 12 months has reached an all-time high, signaling long-term investor conviction that the bull trend remains intact, despite monetary tightening and global economic uncertainty.

從積極的角度來看，諸如加密貨幣之類的鏈分析平台的數據表明，交易所的BTC流出不斷上升。持有BTC的錢包數量超過12個月已經達到了歷史最高的，這表明了長期投資者的信念，即儘管貨幣收緊和全球經濟不確定性，牛市趨勢仍然完好無損。

Prevailing Market Sentiment

盛行的市場情緒

Based on current technical analysis and macroeconomic conditions, analysts have outlined two clear scenarios for the crypto market in Q2 2025.

基於當前的技術分析和宏觀經濟狀況，分析師概述了第二季度2025年第2季度加密市場的兩個明確方案。

In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could extend its upward momentum and reach the psychological $100,000 milestone if the upcoming May CPI data shows U.S

在看漲的情況下，如果即將到來的CPI數據顯示我們