比特币（BTC）价格预测：更新的投资者乐观可能会使比特币（BTC）降到新的历史最高点

比特币最近的表现使投资者的乐观情绪恢复了，过去一个月的资产攀升了13％。

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been making headlines for its impressive performance, having recovered 13% over the past month. While the flagship asset has yet to claim the $100,000 milestone, several key indicators suggest that a return to previous highs could be on the horizon.

比特币（BTC）最近因其令人印象深刻的表现而成为头条新闻，过去一个月恢复了13％。尽管旗舰资产尚未要求这一里程碑，但几个关键指标表明，以前的高点可能会出现。

As investor optimism continues to grow, one of the clearest signs is the sustained drop in exchange-held Bitcoin. When fewer coins are sitting on centralized platforms, it often reflects a shift toward long-term holding — typically a bullish signal.

随着投资者的乐观情绪的不断增长，最明显的迹象之一是交换拥有比特币的持续下降。当较少的硬币坐在集中式平台上时，通常会反映向长期持有的转变 - 通常是看涨的信号。

Currently, only about 2.47 million BTC remain on exchanges, the lowest in years, hinting at large-scale accumulation. This trend has been ongoing throughout April, with exchange reserves steadily decreasing.

目前，在交易所中只有约247万BTC，这是多年来最低的，暗示了大规模积累。整个4月，这种趋势一直在持续，交换储备稳步下降。

This coincides with sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since early April, institutional players have been steadily increasing their positions, with only a brief pause on April 30, when $56 million worth of BTC was sold. Even so, that sell-off is minor compared to the $4.49 billion in net purchases over the same period.

这与持续流入的比特币ETF相吻合。自4月初以来，机构参与者一直在稳步提高自己的职位，4月30日仅暂停了一小段时间，当时出售了价值5600万美元的BTC。即便如此，这种抛售也很小，而同一时期的净购买净额为44.9亿美元。

However, there was a slight decrease in April’s total compared to March, when institutional investors collectively added $5.1 billion in BTC to their ETFs.

但是，与3月相比，四月的总数略有下降，当时机构投资者在其ETF中统称为BTC增加了51亿美元。

Despite this shift, it appears to be a natural adjustment in buying activity, considering the massive capital that has already flowed into Bitcoin ETFs this year.

尽管发生了这种转变，但考虑到今年已经流入了比特币ETF的大量资本，这似乎是一种自然的调整。

According to Glassnode data, the total value of BTC held by these ETFs reached $34.3 billion by April 30, nearly double the $18.4 billion they held at the beginning of the year.

根据玻璃节数据，到4月30日，这些ETF持有的BTC总价值达到343亿美元，几乎是年初持有的184亿美元的两倍。

Furthermore, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key indicator of Bitcoin valuation, currently sits at 2.1.

此外，MVRV（市场价值与实现价值）比特币估值的关键指标（目前为2.1）。

Historically, Bitcoin tends to approach cycle tops when this metric approaches 3.7. The current level of 2.1 suggests that there’s still considerable room for upside in Bitcoin’s market valuation before reaching overheated territory.

从历史上看，当该指标接近3.7时，比特币倾向于接近周期的顶部。目前的2.1水平表明，在到达过热领土之前，比特币的市场估值仍然有很大的上涨空间。

Finally, whale activity is also resurfacing. Analysis of average spot order sizes shows that large investors — those typically capable of making significant price moves — are returning to the market with larger buy orders.

最后，鲸鱼活动也在重新铺面。对平均现货订单量的分析表明，大型投资者（通常能够进行重大价格移动的投资者）以更大的买入订单返回市场。

This resurgence in whale activity signals their growing confidence, which is crucial for any sustained rally. High-net-worth players tend to accumulate during bear markets and exit during bull markets.

鲸鱼活动中的这种复兴表明他们的信心日益增长，这对于任何持续的集会至关重要。高净值球员在熊市和牛市期间倾向于积累。

As they begin accumulating again after a period of inactivity during the cryptocurrency winter, it bodes well for further price gains.

当他们在加密货币冬季的不活动期间再次累积时，它们的价格进一步上涨了。

With institutional inflows climbing, exchange reserves dropping, market valuation still below overheated levels, and whales back in accumulation mode, market dynamics appear to be setting the stage for a potential breakout above $100,000 as early as May.

随着机构流入的攀爬，交易所储量下降，市场估值仍然低于过热水平，并以蓄能模式重新捕鲸，市场动态似乎在五月之前就为超过100,000美元的潜在突破奠定了基础。