福布斯：比特币价格陷入困境，比特币矿工投降，减半未能实现预期反弹

过去一个月，比特币一直在苦苦挣扎，因为比特币价格在“关键转折点”的边缘摇摇欲坠。

Bitcoin has almost doubled in value since the start of 2024, yet lost momentum in recent months amid fears over the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy. Now, as the Fed is warned of a U.S. dollar crisis that could spiral into “total collapse,” bitcoin trader Arthur Hayes has admitted his previous bitcoin price prediction was wrong.

自 2024 年初以来，比特币的价值几乎翻了一番，但近几个月来，由于对美联储货币政策计划的担忧，比特币失去了动力。现在，随着美联储收到美元危机可能演变成“全面崩溃”的警告，比特币交易员阿瑟·海耶斯承认他之前的比特币价格预测是错误的。

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Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said he’s closely watching jobs data—putting the bitcoin … [+] price, crypto and stock market on high alert.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他正在密切关注就业数据——对比特币价格、加密货币和股市保持高度警惕。

“A market correction may start to get traction if payrolls are weak on Friday,” Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients, seen by Bloomberg.

彭博社看到，高盛全球市场董事总经理兼战术专家斯科特·鲁布纳(Scott Rubner)在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果周五就业数据疲弱，市场调整可能会开始受到关注。”

Friday’s payroll report, which Fed chair Jerome Powell last month said will help inform September’s interest rate decision, is expected to show hiring and wage growth picked up in August.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上个月表示，周五的非农就业报告将有助于为 9 月份的利率决定提供信息，预计该报告将显示 8 月份的就业和工资增长有所回升。

The Fed is now widely expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle at its two-day monetary policy meeting that begins on September 17. Yesterday, labor market data and comments from a Federal Reserve official bolstered the case for an interest rate cut, it was reported by Reuters.

目前普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 17 日开始的为期两天的货币政策会议上开始降息周期。昨天，劳动力市场数据和美联储官员的评论支持了降息的理由。据路透社报道。

Bitcoin, crypto and stock market traders are braced for hints that the Fed will need to adjust its plans for an interest rate cut this month as well as signs the strong U.S. economic performance so far this year is stalling.

比特币、加密货币和股票市场交易者正准备迎接美联储将需要调整本月降息计划的暗示，以及今年迄今为止强劲的美国经济表现正在陷入停滞的迹象。

Rubner pointed to September being a historically bearish time for stocks, with the bitcoin price also often struggling through the month, though the “November election becomes a clearing event for risk assets,” Rubner wrote, potentially setting the bitcoin price up for a post-U.S. election rally regardless of whether former U.S. president Donald Trump or vice president Kamala Harris take the White House.

鲁布纳指出，9 月对股市来说是历史性的看跌时期，比特币价格在整个月也经常陷入困境，尽管“11 月的选举成为风险资产的清算事件”，鲁布纳写道，这可能会导致比特币价格在未来一段时间内上涨。无论美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普还是副总统卡马拉·哈里斯入主白宫，美国大选都会集结。

Meanwhile, the lackluster bitcoin price performance over the summer has forced BitMex cofounder crypto trader Arthur Hayes to reverse his short-term bitcoin price prediction.

与此同时，今年夏天比特币价格表现不佳，迫使 BitMex 联合创始人加密货币交易员 Arthur Hayes 改变了他的短期比特币价格预测。

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The bitcoin price has dipped from its all-time high of over $70,000 per bitcoin set earlier this … [+] year.

比特币价格已从今年早些时候创下的每比特币 70,000 美元以上的历史高位回落……[+]。

“I have changed my mind, but it doesn’t affect my positioning at all,” Hayes, who started a family office called Maelstrom after leaving the BitMex crypto derivatives pioneer, wrote in a blog post.

“我改变了主意，但这根本不影响我的定位，”海耶斯在博客文章中写道。海耶斯在离开 BitMex 加密衍生品先驱后创办了一家名为 Maelstrom 的家族办公室。

Hayes had predicted a new bitcoin price bull run would begin in September as the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury and China all turn on their liquidity taps.

海耶斯曾预测，随着美联储、美国财政部和中国都开启流动性水龙头，新的比特币价格牛市将于 9 月开始。

“I expect intervention to begin in late September,” Hayes wrote. “Between now and then, bitcoin, at best, will chop around these levels and, at worst, slowly leak lower towards $50,000.”

“我预计干预将于九月下旬开始，”海耶斯写道。 “从现在到那时，比特币充其量会在这些水平附近波动，最坏的情况是慢慢跌向 50,000 美元。”

Hayes’ new bitcoin price prediction reflects a bearish warning from analysts with Bitfinex this week who said they could see the bitcoin price fall as low as $40,000 in the short term.

Hayes 的新比特币价格预测反映了 Bitfinex 分析师本周的悲观警告，他们表示，短期内比特币价格可能跌至 40,000 美元。