Bitcoin Price Struggles as Bitcoin Miners Capitulate, Halving Fails to Deliver Expected Rally: Forbes

Bitcoin has been struggling over the last month as the bitcoin price teeters on the verge of "a critical tipping point."

Bitcoin has almost doubled in value since the start of 2024, yet lost momentum in recent months amid fears over the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy. Now, as the Fed is warned of a U.S. dollar crisis that could spiral into “total collapse,” bitcoin trader Arthur Hayes has admitted his previous bitcoin price prediction was wrong.

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Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said he’s closely watching jobs data—putting the bitcoin … [+] price, crypto and stock market on high alert.

“A market correction may start to get traction if payrolls are weak on Friday,” Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients, seen by Bloomberg.

Friday’s payroll report, which Fed chair Jerome Powell last month said will help inform September’s interest rate decision, is expected to show hiring and wage growth picked up in August.

The Fed is now widely expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle at its two-day monetary policy meeting that begins on September 17. Yesterday, labor market data and comments from a Federal Reserve official bolstered the case for an interest rate cut, it was reported by Reuters.

Bitcoin, crypto and stock market traders are braced for hints that the Fed will need to adjust its plans for an interest rate cut this month as well as signs the strong U.S. economic performance so far this year is stalling.

Rubner pointed to September being a historically bearish time for stocks, with the bitcoin price also often struggling through the month, though the “November election becomes a clearing event for risk assets,” Rubner wrote, potentially setting the bitcoin price up for a post-U.S. election rally regardless of whether former U.S. president Donald Trump or vice president Kamala Harris take the White House.

Meanwhile, the lackluster bitcoin price performance over the summer has forced BitMex cofounder crypto trader Arthur Hayes to reverse his short-term bitcoin price prediction.

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The bitcoin price has dipped from its all-time high of over $70,000 per bitcoin set earlier this … [+] year.

“I have changed my mind, but it doesn’t affect my positioning at all,” Hayes, who started a family office called Maelstrom after leaving the BitMex crypto derivatives pioneer, wrote in a blog post.

Hayes had predicted a new bitcoin price bull run would begin in September as the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury and China all turn on their liquidity taps.

“I expect intervention to begin in late September,” Hayes wrote. “Between now and then, bitcoin, at best, will chop around these levels and, at worst, slowly leak lower towards $50,000.”

Hayes’ new bitcoin price prediction reflects a bearish warning from analysts with Bitfinex this week who said they could see the bitcoin price fall as low as $40,000 in the short term.