基本面驱动了比特币的2025年动力？

2025年的全球经济正在走钢丝。美国故意重新设计贸易规则已创造了新的不确定性层

How much of Bitcoin’s 2025 momentum is being driven by fundamentals, and how much by macro systems that no longer offer reliable direction? A closer look at the changing liquidity tides, new tariffs, and outlook on Bitcoin price.

基本面驱动了比特币的2025年动力，而宏观系统不再提供可靠方向？仔细观察不断变化的流动性潮流，新的关税和比特币价格的前景。

The global economy in 2025 is increasingly fragile as a new layer of uncertainty is being added with the U.S. making sweeping changes to trade rules. These changes may spark a recession sooner than anticipated, which has central banks, corporations, and policymakers on high alert.

2025年的全球经济越来越脆弱，因为美国正在增加不确定性的新层，对贸易规则进行了彻底的改变。这些变化可能会比预期的要早，这使中央银行，公司和政策制定者高度戒备。

President Trump’s administration has been rolling out a series of trade policies, including 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and a broad import tax that could effectively raise the average effective U.S. tariff rate by roughly 16 percentage points.

特朗普总统的政府一直在推出一系列贸易政策，包括对中国商品的145％关税和广泛的进口税，可以有效提高美国平均有效的美国关税利率大约16个百分点。

These changes are part of a broader realignment of the post-globalization playbook, with Washington shifting its stance on trade, immigration, climate policy, and foreign aid to create a new economic sphere.

这些变化是全球化剧本更广泛重新调整的一部分，华盛顿改变了其对贸易，移民，气候政策和外国援助的立场，以创造一个新的经济领域。

However, these changes are also increasing the odds of a recession. According to Goldman Sachs, the chances of a U.S. recession over the next twelve months have risen to 45%, while the projections for 2025 have been slashed.

但是，这些变化也增加了经济衰退的几率。据高盛（Goldman Sachs）称，在接下来的十二个月中，美国衰退的机会上升至45％，而2025年的预测被削减了。

Earlier this year, Goldman had predicted a modest slowdown in late 2024 or early 2025, with economists anticipating a brief period of negative growth. But with the rapid shifts in trade policy and their downstream impact on manufacturing costs, goods prices, and consumer spending, that calculus has changed.

今年早些时候，高盛预测2024年末或2025年初的放缓会降低，经济学家预计会有短暂的负面增长。但是，随着贸易政策的快速变化及其对制造成本，商品价格和消费者支出的影响，微积分发生了变化。

As a result, Goldman has now slashed its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 to just 0.5%, a stark reduction from the 1.4% it had projected previously.

结果，高盛（Goldman）现在将其在2025年对美国GDP增长的预测仅为0.5％，这是从以前预计的1.4％降低的。

Its economists also expect unemployment to tick up to 4.7% by the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase from the 3.7% prediction in the prior report.

它的经济学家还预计，到2025年第四季度，失业率将高达4.7％，这比先前报告中的3.7％的预测增加了。

On the other hand, they see core PCE inflation holding at 3.5%, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target despite three broad-based interest rate cuts from the central bank.

另一方面，他们认为核心PCE通货膨胀率为3.5％，尽管从中央银行降低了三个基于大的利率，但仍高于美联储的2％目标。

Those cuts, which analysts have described as “insurance cuts” to cushion the economic impact of tariffs, are expected to be delivered by the fourth quarter of 2025. But with the labor market still showing strength and inflation remaining sticky, the Fed’s scope for action is limited.

分析师称这些削减为“削减保险”，以缓解关税的经济影响，预计将在2025年第四季度之前进行。但是，由于劳动力市场仍显示出强度和通货膨胀率，因此美联储的行动范围受到限制。

Its actions will also largely depend on the broader macroeconomic trends, which are becoming less clear.

它的行动还将在很大程度上取决于更广泛的宏观经济趋势，而宏观经济趋势越来越清楚。

Japan's economic outlook has deteriorated due to slower external demand and increasingly cautious corporate investment, leading to lower forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.

日本的经济前景由于外部需求较慢和越来越谨慎的公司投资而恶化，导致2025年和2026年GDP增​​长的预测降低。

The forecasts for Japan’s GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been slashed to 1.0% and 0.7%, respectively, a significant reduction from the previous predictions of 1.5% and 1.2%.

日本在2025年和2026年对日本GDP增长的预测分别被削减至1.0％和0.7％，这显着降低了以前的预测为1.5％和1.2％。

This change is a consequence of the slower-than-expected recovery in external demand and the more sluggish pace of capital expenditure by Japanese companies.

这一变化是由于外部需求恢复的速度较慢，而日本公司的资本支出速度却较差。

As a major export-driven economy in the region, Japan is largely affected by any disruptions in the global economy, rendering it particularly vulnerable to the implications of a potential U.S.-led recession.

作为该地区出口驱动的主要经济，日本在很大程度上受到全球经济中的任何干扰的影响，使其特别容易受到潜在的美国领导的衰退的影响。

The Bank of Japan had been preparing to raise interest rates this year as it begins to exit an era of ultra-low monetary policy. However, the possibility of a recession may now force the bank to delay or abandon those plans.

日本银行一直准备在今年提高利率，因为它开始退出超低货币政策的时代。但是，衰退的可能性现在可能迫使银行延迟或放弃这些计划。

In the eurozone, economists at Goldman Sachs have revised down their outlook for 2025. They now anticipate the common currency bloc’s GDP to expand by 0.7%, a reduction from the 1.0% growth that was predicted in January.

在欧元区，高盛的经济学家修改了他们2025年的前景。他们现在预计，普通货币集团的GDP将会扩大0.7％，这降低了1月份预计的1.0％增长。

The revised outlook is attributed to weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 and the anticipation of a more sluggish recovery in the second half of the year.

修订后的前景归因于2025年第一季度的经济活动较弱，并且预期下半年的恢复度更为缓慢。

The economists have also lowered their outlook for inflation in the eurozone and adjusted their terminal rate expectations for the European Central Bank accordingly.

经济学家还降低了他们对欧元区通货膨胀的看法，并相应地调整了对欧洲中央银行的最终费率。

They now see the CPI, a broad measure of inflation, coming in at 2.0% by the fourth quarter of 2025, down from the previous estimate of 2.2%.

现在，他们看到CPI是一种广泛的通货膨胀量，到2025年第四季度的收入率为2.0％，低于先前的2.2％的估计。

Correspondingly, they have reduced their terminal rate expectations for the ECB to 2.0%, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 2.1%. This anticipates that the ECB will need to raise rates by a smaller amount to contain inflation within its 2% target.

相应地，他们将欧洲央行的终端率预期降低到2.0％，比以前的2.1％的估计值略有下降。这预计欧洲央行将需要将利率提高较小的费用才能在其2％的目标中包含通货膨胀。

The British economy is also expected to face a bleaker outlook in 2025, with economists at Goldman Sachs slashing their GDP growth forecast.

预计英国经济将在2025年面临隐蔽的前景，高盛的经济学家削减了其GDP增长预测。

The new prediction stands at 0.2%, a significant reduction from the 0.8% growth that was anticipated at the beginning of

新预测为0.2％，与预期的0.8％的增长相比显着降低