比特币暴露的密钥面临量子风险：供应格局的变化

了解 31.2% 的公开密钥暴露的比特币供应如何面临量子和人工智能威胁，从而推动全行业的“掩体模式”规划。

Quantum Computing Looms: Is Bitcoin's Supply at Risk?

量子计算迫在眉睫：比特币的供应面临风险吗？

The long-term security of Bitcoin is under a microscope, with a significant portion of its supply – a staggering 6.26 million BTC, or 31.2% – residing in addresses with exposed public keys. This revelation, underscored by recent analyses, has ignited urgent discussions about potential threats from quantum computing and artificial intelligence.

比特币的长期安全性受到密切关注，其供应量的很大一部分（惊人的 626 万比特币，即 31.2%）都驻留在公钥暴露的地址中。最近的分析强调了这一启示，引发了有关量子计算和人工智能潜在威胁的紧急讨论。

The Exposed Public Key Predicament

暴露的公钥困境

Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft's latest estimates highlight that a substantial amount of Bitcoin's supply is vulnerable. Approximately 4.33 million BTC are exposed due to address reuse, while another 1.94 million BTC are susceptible through transaction or script types. Notably, this includes around 1.71 million BTC in legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs, a category even containing about 1.1 million BTC linked to Bitcoin's enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. This exposed share has climbed from 24.8% in early 2021, returning to levels not seen since 2016.

Glassnode 联合创始人 Rafael Schultze-Kraft 的最新估计强调，大量比特币供应很脆弱。大约有 433 万比特币因地址重用而暴露，另有 194 万比特币因交易或脚本类型而受到影响。值得注意的是，这包括传统支付公钥（P2PK）输出中的约 171 万比特币，这一类别甚至包含与比特币神秘创造者中本聪相关的约 110 万比特币。这一暴露比例从 2021 年初的 24.8% 攀升，回到 2016 年以来的最高水平。

'Bunker Mode': A Call to Action

“地堡模式”：行动号召

Echoing these concerns, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake has issued a stark warning, urging the blockchain industry to prepare for a potential cryptographic breakthrough. Drake advocates for a measured transition to 'bunker mode,' where assets are migrated to new addresses with hidden public keys. He cautions that the threat could materialize sooner than expected, suggesting that existing cryptographic schemes like ECDSA, which Bitcoin relies on, might be compromised by quantum computers in a matter of months, not years. This risk is further amplified by the possibility that AI advancements could accelerate such cryptographic weaknesses, a concern also raised by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

与这些担忧相呼应的是，以太坊基金会研究员 Justin Drake 发出了严厉警告，敦促区块链行业为潜在的加密突破做好准备。德雷克主张谨慎过渡到“掩体模式”，即资产被迁移到带有隐藏公钥的新地址。他警告说，这种威胁可能会比预期更早出现，这表明比特币所依赖的 ECDSA 等现有加密方案可能会在几个月而不是几年内受到量子计算机的破坏。人工智能的进步可能会加速这种加密货币的弱点，这进一步放大了这种风险，以太坊联合创始人维塔利克·布特林(Vitalik Buterin)也提出了这一担忧。

Beyond Quantum: AI's Cryptographic Quandary

超越量子：人工智能的加密困境

While the specter of quantum computing looms large, the role of artificial intelligence in potentially weakening cryptography cannot be ignored. Buterin's observations suggest that AI could present vulnerabilities even before quantum computers reach full maturity. However, he also advises against hasty actions, recommending a calm, planned approach rather than immediate, panic-driven fund migrations.

虽然量子计算的幽灵越来越大，但人工智能在潜在削弱密码学方面的作用也不容忽视。 Buterin 的观察表明，即使在量子计算机完全成熟之前，人工智能也可能会出现漏洞。不过，他也建议不要仓促行动，建议采取冷静、有计划的方法，而不是立即、恐慌驱动的资金迁移。

Government Movements and Exchange Exposure

政府动向和外汇风险

Coinciding with these security discussions, recent movements of substantial amounts of seized Bitcoin by government-linked wallets have added another layer of complexity. While these transfers, linked to the 2016 Bitfinex hack, do not directly signal quantum concerns, they emphasize the need to differentiate between asset movements and potential sales. Furthermore, Schultze-Kraft's analysis indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges remains exposed, with varying degrees of risk across platforms like Binance and Bitfinex.

与这些安全讨论同时发生的是，最近政府相关钱包扣押的大量比特币的动向又增加了一层复杂性。虽然这些与 2016 年 Bitfinex 黑客事件有关的转移并不直接表明量子担忧，但它们强调需要区分资产流动和潜在销售。此外，Schultze-Kraft 的分析表明，中心化交易所持有的很大一部分比特币仍然面临风险，在 Binance 和 Bitfinex 等平台上存在不同程度的风险。

Navigating the Future: Adaptation Over Collapse

引领未来：适应崩溃

Despite the warnings, reports from entities like Europol suggest that a complete collapse of cryptocurrencies due to quantum computing is unlikely. Instead, the focus is shifting towards proactive adaptation. The primary solution for exposed wallets is pre-emptive migration. However, the technical hurdles are considerable, with estimates suggesting significant downtime would be required to transition Bitcoin's transaction history to a quantum-resistant format. The integration of new, larger post-quantum signature standards also presents challenges regarding block space and transaction fees.

尽管有这些警告，欧洲刑警组织等实体的报告表明，量子计算不太可能导致加密货币彻底崩溃。相反，重点正在转向主动适应。针对暴露钱包的主要解决方案是抢先迁移。然而，技术障碍相当大，估计表明需要大量停机时间才能将比特币的交易历史转换为抗量子格式。新的、更大的后量子签名标准的集成也带来了区块空间和交易费用方面的挑战。

A Measured Approach to a Evolving Threat

应对不断变化的威胁的审慎方法

The narrative surrounding Bitcoin's security is evolving, balancing the immediate concerns of exposed public keys and the long-term existential threat of quantum computing, with the emerging influence of AI. While the industry grapples with these challenges, the consensus leans towards planned adaptation and migration. So, while the quantum clock might be ticking, it seems the Bitcoin community is gearing up for a measured, rather than a mad dash, response. Keep those keys hidden and stay savvy!

围绕比特币安全性的叙述正在不断发展，平衡了暴露的公钥的直接担忧和量子计算的长期存在威胁以及人工智能的新兴影响。尽管该行业正在努力应对这些挑战，但共识倾向于有计划的适应和迁移。因此，虽然量子时钟可能正在滴答作响，但比特币社区似乎正在准备做出谨慎的、而不是疯狂的回应。将这些钥匙隐藏起来并保持精明！