基本面驅動了比特幣的2025年動力？

2025年的全球經濟正在走鋼絲。美國故意重新設計貿易規則已創造了新的不確定性層

How much of Bitcoin’s 2025 momentum is being driven by fundamentals, and how much by macro systems that no longer offer reliable direction? A closer look at the changing liquidity tides, new tariffs, and outlook on Bitcoin price.

基本面驅動了比特幣的2025年動力，而宏觀系統不再提供可靠方向？仔細觀察不斷變化的流動性潮流，新的關稅和比特幣價格的前景。

The global economy in 2025 is increasingly fragile as a new layer of uncertainty is being added with the U.S. making sweeping changes to trade rules. These changes may spark a recession sooner than anticipated, which has central banks, corporations, and policymakers on high alert.

2025年的全球經濟越來越脆弱，因為美國正在增加不確定性的新層，對貿易規則進行了徹底的改變。這些變化可能會比預期的要早，這使中央銀行，公司和政策制定者高度戒備。

President Trump’s administration has been rolling out a series of trade policies, including 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and a broad import tax that could effectively raise the average effective U.S. tariff rate by roughly 16 percentage points.

特朗普總統的政府一直在推出一系列貿易政策，包括對中國商品的145％關稅和廣泛的進口稅，可以有效提高美國平均有效的美國關稅利率大約16個百分點。

These changes are part of a broader realignment of the post-globalization playbook, with Washington shifting its stance on trade, immigration, climate policy, and foreign aid to create a new economic sphere.

這些變化是全球化劇本更廣泛重新調整的一部分，華盛頓改變了其對貿易，移民，氣候政策和外國援助的立場，以創造一個新的經濟領域。

However, these changes are also increasing the odds of a recession. According to Goldman Sachs, the chances of a U.S. recession over the next twelve months have risen to 45%, while the projections for 2025 have been slashed.

但是，這些變化也增加了經濟衰退的機率。據高盛（Goldman Sachs）稱，在接下來的十二個月中，美國衰退的機會上升至45％，而2025年的預測被削減了。

Earlier this year, Goldman had predicted a modest slowdown in late 2024 or early 2025, with economists anticipating a brief period of negative growth. But with the rapid shifts in trade policy and their downstream impact on manufacturing costs, goods prices, and consumer spending, that calculus has changed.

今年早些時候，高盛預測2024年末或2025年初的放緩會降低，經濟學家預計會有短暫的負面增長。但是，隨著貿易政策的快速變化及其對製造成本，商品價格和消費者支出的影響，微積分發生了變化。

As a result, Goldman has now slashed its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 to just 0.5%, a stark reduction from the 1.4% it had projected previously.

結果，高盛（Goldman）現在將其在2025年對美國GDP增長的預測僅為0.5％，這是從以前預計的1.4％降低的。

Its economists also expect unemployment to tick up to 4.7% by the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase from the 3.7% prediction in the prior report.

它的經濟學家還預計，到2025年第四季度，失業率將高達4.7％，這比先前報告中的3.7％的預測增加了。

On the other hand, they see core PCE inflation holding at 3.5%, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target despite three broad-based interest rate cuts from the central bank.

另一方面，他們認為核心PCE通貨膨脹率為3.5％，儘管從中央銀行降低了三個基於大的利率，但仍高於美聯儲的2％目標。

Those cuts, which analysts have described as “insurance cuts” to cushion the economic impact of tariffs, are expected to be delivered by the fourth quarter of 2025. But with the labor market still showing strength and inflation remaining sticky, the Fed’s scope for action is limited.

分析師稱這些削減為“削減保險”，以緩解關稅的經濟影響，預計將在2025年第四季度之前進行。但是，由於勞動力市場仍顯示出強度和通貨膨脹率，因此美聯儲的行動範圍受到限制。

Its actions will also largely depend on the broader macroeconomic trends, which are becoming less clear.

它的行動還將在很大程度上取決於更廣泛的宏觀經濟趨勢，而宏觀經濟趨勢越來越清楚。

Japan's economic outlook has deteriorated due to slower external demand and increasingly cautious corporate investment, leading to lower forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026.

日本的經濟前景由於外部需求較慢和越來越謹慎的公司投資而惡化，導致2025年和2026年GDP增​​長的預測降低。

The forecasts for Japan’s GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been slashed to 1.0% and 0.7%, respectively, a significant reduction from the previous predictions of 1.5% and 1.2%.

日本在2025年和2026年對日本GDP增長的預測分別被削減至1.0％和0.7％，這顯著降低了以前的預測為1.5％和1.2％。

This change is a consequence of the slower-than-expected recovery in external demand and the more sluggish pace of capital expenditure by Japanese companies.

這一變化是由於外部需求恢復的速度較慢，而日本公司的資本支出速度卻較差。

As a major export-driven economy in the region, Japan is largely affected by any disruptions in the global economy, rendering it particularly vulnerable to the implications of a potential U.S.-led recession.

作為該地區出口驅動的主要經濟，日本在很大程度上受到全球經濟中的任何干擾的影響，使其特別容易受到潛在的美國領導的衰退的影響。

The Bank of Japan had been preparing to raise interest rates this year as it begins to exit an era of ultra-low monetary policy. However, the possibility of a recession may now force the bank to delay or abandon those plans.

日本銀行一直準備在今年提高利率，因為它開始退出超低貨幣政策的時代。但是，衰退的可能性現在可能迫使銀行延遲或放棄這些計劃。

In the eurozone, economists at Goldman Sachs have revised down their outlook for 2025. They now anticipate the common currency bloc’s GDP to expand by 0.7%, a reduction from the 1.0% growth that was predicted in January.

在歐元區，高盛的經濟學家修改了他們2025年的前景。他們現在預計，普通貨幣集團的GDP將會擴大0.7％，這降低了1月份預計的1.0％增長。

The revised outlook is attributed to weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 and the anticipation of a more sluggish recovery in the second half of the year.

修訂後的前景歸因於2025年第一季度的經濟活動較弱，並且預期下半年的恢復度更為緩慢。

The economists have also lowered their outlook for inflation in the eurozone and adjusted their terminal rate expectations for the European Central Bank accordingly.

經濟學家還降低了他們對歐元區通貨膨脹的看法，並相應地調整了對歐洲中央銀行的最終費率。

They now see the CPI, a broad measure of inflation, coming in at 2.0% by the fourth quarter of 2025, down from the previous estimate of 2.2%.

現在，他們看到CPI是一種廣泛的通貨膨脹量，到2025年第四季度的收入率為2.0％，低於先前的2.2％的估計。

Correspondingly, they have reduced their terminal rate expectations for the ECB to 2.0%, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 2.1%. This anticipates that the ECB will need to raise rates by a smaller amount to contain inflation within its 2% target.

相應地，他們將歐洲央行的終端率預期降低到2.0％，比以前的2.1％的估計值略有下降。這預計歐洲央行將需要將利率提高較小的費用才能在其2％的目標中包含通貨膨脹。

The British economy is also expected to face a bleaker outlook in 2025, with economists at Goldman Sachs slashing their GDP growth forecast.

預計英國經濟將在2025年面臨隱蔽的前景，高盛的經濟學家削減了其GDP增長預測。

The new prediction stands at 0.2%, a significant reduction from the 0.8% growth that was anticipated at the beginning of

新預測為0.2％，與預期的0.8％的增長相比顯著降低