比特币终于恢复了它的位置

卖卖派对很晚。但是比特币终于在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的贸易战中吓坏的投资者终于夺回了它的一席之地，并热衷于

It's a bit late to the party. But bitcoin is finally reclaiming its place as a big alternative for investors who are spooked by President Donald Trump's trade war and keen to dump U.S. stocks, Treasuries and the dollar.

聚会有点晚。但是，比特币终于恢复了其作为一个很大的替代方案，对于唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战争而吓坏的投资者，并热衷于抛弃美国股票，国库和美元。

After an initial tumble to its lowest levels this year soon after Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2, the notoriously volatile bitcoin has slowly clawed back ground.

在特朗普在4月2日宣布解放日关税之后不久，今年不久的最低水平达到了最低水平后，臭名昭著的挥发性比特币逐渐逐渐向后倾斜。

It managed to outperform stock markets in 10 out of 17 sessions in that period, according to data from VanEck, which also tracks the performance of major asset classes.

根据Vaneck的数据，在此期间，在17个会议中的10个会议中，它设法超越了股票市场，该数据还跟踪了主要资产类别的绩效。

The world's top and original cryptocurrency is now a whisker away from the $10,000 mark last seen three months ago, after a 15% rise in April alone.

现在，仅在四月份上涨15％之后，世界上最高和原始的加密货币远离了三个月前的10,000美元大关。

By comparison, the S&P 500 slipped around 0.8% in April, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite eked out 0.8% gains last month, while the U.S. dollar index fell over 4%.

相比之下，标准普尔500指数在4月下跌了约0.8％，以技术为重点的纳斯达克综合材料上个月获得了0.8％的收益，而美元指数下跌了4％。

"The most recent price action may have begun to validate the view that Bitcoin is not just the 501st company in the SPX," analysts at research firm Block Scholes said.

研究公司Block Scholes的分析师说：“最近的价格行动可能已经开始验证比特币不仅是SPX中的第501家公司的观点。”

Bitcoin is up 33% from its April low in a surprising turn for the cryptocurrency, given how closely it has mimicked the performance of equity markets in periods of market turmoil- particularly the tech sector - over the past few years.

对于加密货币来说，比特币在4月份的低位方面增长了33％，因为在过去几年中，它在市场动荡时期（尤其是科技行业）中的股票市场的表现如何。

But stellar returns from the cryptocurrency, and strong outperformance against other major asset classes, has seen investors rapidly funnel more money into digital asset-focused funds.

但是，来自加密货币的恒星回报，以及针对其他主要资产类别的强劲表现，投资者迅速向以数字资产为中心的资金汇集了更多的钱。

Roughly $5.5 billion has been plowed into such products over the last three weeks, according to data from CoinShares, which also tracks institutional flows into cryptocurrency products. Of that sum, $1.8 billion went into bitcoin products alone in the week to May 3.

根据Coinshares的数据，在过去三周中，大约55亿美元被耕种到了此类产品中，该产品还追踪了机构流入加密货币产品。其中，截至5月3日的一周，仅18亿美元就进入了比特币产品。

Those flows pushed total inflows into digital asset-focused products to a record high in the first quarter, with investors pouring a net $6.4 billion into such funds.

这些流动将总流入流入以数字资产为中心的产品中达到了创纪录的最高水平，投资者向这种资金投入了64亿美元的净资金。

That compares to outflows of $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 and inflows of $4.2 billion in the third quarter of last year.

相比之下，2019年第四季度的流出额为13亿美元，去年第三季度流出了42亿美元。

Relative performance aside, investors are also becoming more pessimistic on U.S. assets due to Trump's trade war and threat to cut taxes, while worries over a potential no-deal Brexit are also escalating.

除了相对绩效外，由于特朗普的贸易战和削减税收的威胁，投资者也对美国资产变得越来越悲观，而对潜在的无交易脱欧的担忧也在不断升级。

Those worries have seen traders rapidly unwind bullish bets on the S&P 500 and dollar in recent weeks, while increasing bearish positions on the tech sector.

这些担心已经使交易者迅速在最近几周对标准普尔500指数和美元的看涨赌注，同时增加了对科技行业的看跌地位。

But bulk uprisings in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw their bullish positions hit their highest since early 2018.

但是，比特币和其他加密货币的批量起义使他们的看涨位置达到了自2018年初以来的最高水平。

Correlations between bitcoin and other asset classes have also shifted, according to Block Scholes, and bitcoin is the most inversely correlated to the steepness of the Treasury yield curve in over two years."Investors are really starting to respond to (bitcoin) as a potential diversifier," said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors.

根据Block Scholes的说法，比特币与其他资产类别之间的相关性也发生了变化，比特币与两年多的财政收益率曲线的陡峭相关。

Bitcoin has also outperformed gold's 11% rise since April 2, despite the safe-haven metal surging to record highs on worries over the trade war and global growth. Measures of bitcoin's expected volatility have dropped to 18-month lows, as per Block Scholes.

自4月2日以来，比特币的表现也胜过11％的增长，尽管安全金属飙升以记录对贸易战和全球增长的担忧的最高点。根据块学者，比特币预期波动率的量度已下降至18个月的低点。

"The damage has been done in terms of trust towards the U.S. and dollar assets ... but you can't (diversify) overnight," said Martin Leinweber, director of digital asset research & strategy at MarketVector Indexes.

MarketVector Indexes数字资产研究与战略总监Martin Leinweber说：“损害是根据对美国和美元资产的信任而造成的……但是您不能在一夜之间（多元化）。”

"What kind of neutral assets do you have? Underlying that is really a supportive shift towards bitcoin and crypto."

“您有什么样的中性资产？这确实是向比特币和加密货币的支持。”

Investors are becoming more bullish on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at a time when macro trends suggest a case for investing in "neutral" assets.

在宏观趋势提出投资“中性”资产的案例时，投资者对比特币和其他加密货币越来越看好。

If changing tariff policies continue to drive a move away from U.S. assets, bitcoin could find its next leg higher, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank said in a note to clients on Monday.

标准特许银行数字资产研究负责人杰夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）在周一向客户的一份报告中说，如果不断变化的关税政策继续远离美国资产，则比特币可能会发现其下一个腿部更高的问题。

"We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets to trigger the next sharp up swing in Bitcoin in the coming months," Kendrick said, adding he sees bitcoin hitting a new record high of around $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025.

肯德里克说：“我们预计，在接下来的几个月中，我们的资产将获得战略资产重新分配，以触发比特币的下一个急剧摇摆。”

Still, it's far too early to say bitcoin has severed its ties with macroeconomic developments.

尽管如此，现在说比特币已经切断了与宏观经济发展的联系还为时过早。

Bitcoin's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 0.45 in early April but has crept back up to 0.87, according to LSEG data, where 1 indicates they are moving in lockstep.

根据LSEG数据，比特币与标准普尔500指数的30天相关性在4月初短暂下降至0.45，但根据LSEG数据，逐回到0.87，其中1表示它们正在锁定。

And it still remains some ways away from its January record high.

而且仍然有一些距离其一月份的纪录高的方式。

"I think we'll inevitably see periods going forward

“我认为我们不可避免地会看到未来的时期