比特幣終於恢復了它的位置

賣賣派對很晚。但是比特幣終於在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的貿易戰中嚇壞的投資者終於奪回了它的一席之地，並熱衷於

It's a bit late to the party. But bitcoin is finally reclaiming its place as a big alternative for investors who are spooked by President Donald Trump's trade war and keen to dump U.S. stocks, Treasuries and the dollar.

聚會有點晚。但是，比特幣終於恢復了其作為一個很大的替代方案，對於唐納德·特朗普總統的貿易戰爭而嚇壞的投資者，並熱衷於拋棄美國股票，國庫和美元。

After an initial tumble to its lowest levels this year soon after Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2, the notoriously volatile bitcoin has slowly clawed back ground.

在特朗普在4月2日宣布解放日關稅之後不久，今年不久的最低水平達到了最低水平後，臭名昭著的揮發性比特幣逐漸逐漸向後傾斜。

It managed to outperform stock markets in 10 out of 17 sessions in that period, according to data from VanEck, which also tracks the performance of major asset classes.

根據Vaneck的數據，在此期間，在17個會議中的10個會議中，它設法超越了股票市場，該數據還跟踪了主要資產類別的績效。

The world's top and original cryptocurrency is now a whisker away from the $10,000 mark last seen three months ago, after a 15% rise in April alone.

現在，僅在四月份上漲15％之後，世界上最高和原始的加密貨幣遠離了三個月前的10,000美元大關。

By comparison, the S&P 500 slipped around 0.8% in April, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite eked out 0.8% gains last month, while the U.S. dollar index fell over 4%.

相比之下，標準普爾500指數在4月下跌了約0.8％，以技術為重點的納斯達克綜合材料上個月獲得了0.8％的收益，而美元指數下跌了4％。

"The most recent price action may have begun to validate the view that Bitcoin is not just the 501st company in the SPX," analysts at research firm Block Scholes said.

研究公司Block Scholes的分析師說：“最近的價格行動可能已經開始驗證比特幣不僅是SPX中的第501家公司的觀點。”

Bitcoin is up 33% from its April low in a surprising turn for the cryptocurrency, given how closely it has mimicked the performance of equity markets in periods of market turmoil- particularly the tech sector - over the past few years.

對於加密貨幣來說，比特幣在4月份的低位方面增長了33％，因為在過去幾年中，它在市場動盪時期（尤其是科技行業）中的股票市場的表現如何。

But stellar returns from the cryptocurrency, and strong outperformance against other major asset classes, has seen investors rapidly funnel more money into digital asset-focused funds.

但是，來自加密貨幣的恆星回報，以及針對其他主要資產類別的強勁表現，投資者迅速向以數字資產為中心的資金匯集了更多的錢。

Roughly $5.5 billion has been plowed into such products over the last three weeks, according to data from CoinShares, which also tracks institutional flows into cryptocurrency products. Of that sum, $1.8 billion went into bitcoin products alone in the week to May 3.

根據Coinshares的數據，在過去三周中，大約55億美元被耕種到了此類產品中，該產品還追踪了機構流入加密貨幣產品。其中，截至5月3日的一周，僅18億美元就進入了比特幣產品。

Those flows pushed total inflows into digital asset-focused products to a record high in the first quarter, with investors pouring a net $6.4 billion into such funds.

這些流動將總流入流入以數字資產為中心的產品中達到了創紀錄的最高水平，投資者向這種資金投入了64億美元的淨資金。

That compares to outflows of $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 and inflows of $4.2 billion in the third quarter of last year.

相比之下，2019年第四季度的流出額為13億美元，去年第三季度流出了42億美元。

Relative performance aside, investors are also becoming more pessimistic on U.S. assets due to Trump's trade war and threat to cut taxes, while worries over a potential no-deal Brexit are also escalating.

除了相對績效外，由於特朗普的貿易戰和削減稅收的威脅，投資者也對美國資產變得越來越悲觀，而對潛在的無交易脫歐的擔憂也在不斷升級。

Those worries have seen traders rapidly unwind bullish bets on the S&P 500 and dollar in recent weeks, while increasing bearish positions on the tech sector.

這些擔心已經使交易者迅速在最近幾週對標準普爾500指數和美元的看漲賭注，同時增加了對科技行業的看跌地位。

But bulk uprisings in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw their bullish positions hit their highest since early 2018.

但是，比特幣和其他加密貨幣的批量起義使他們的看漲位置達到了自2018年初以來的最高水平。

Correlations between bitcoin and other asset classes have also shifted, according to Block Scholes, and bitcoin is the most inversely correlated to the steepness of the Treasury yield curve in over two years."Investors are really starting to respond to (bitcoin) as a potential diversifier," said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors.

根據Block Scholes的說法，比特幣與其他資產類別之間的相關性也發生了變化，比特幣與兩年多的財政收益率曲線的陡峭相關。

Bitcoin has also outperformed gold's 11% rise since April 2, despite the safe-haven metal surging to record highs on worries over the trade war and global growth. Measures of bitcoin's expected volatility have dropped to 18-month lows, as per Block Scholes.

自4月2日以來，比特幣的表現也勝過11％的增長，儘管安全金屬飆升以記錄對貿易戰和全球增長的擔憂的最高點。根據塊學者，比特幣預期波動率的量度已下降至18個月的低點。

"The damage has been done in terms of trust towards the U.S. and dollar assets ... but you can't (diversify) overnight," said Martin Leinweber, director of digital asset research & strategy at MarketVector Indexes.

MarketVector Indexes數字資產研究與戰略總監Martin Leinweber說：“損害是根據對美國和美元資產的信任而造成的……但是您不能在一夜之間（多元化）。”

"What kind of neutral assets do you have? Underlying that is really a supportive shift towards bitcoin and crypto."

“您有什麼樣的中性資產？這確實是向比特幣和加密貨幣的支持。”

Investors are becoming more bullish on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at a time when macro trends suggest a case for investing in "neutral" assets.

在宏觀趨勢提出投資“中性”資產的案例時，投資者對比特幣和其他加密貨幣越來越看好。

If changing tariff policies continue to drive a move away from U.S. assets, bitcoin could find its next leg higher, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank said in a note to clients on Monday.

標準特許銀行數字資產研究負責人傑夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）在周一向客戶的一份報告中說，如果不斷變化的關稅政策繼續遠離美國資產，則比特幣可能會發現其下一個腿部更高的問題。

"We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets to trigger the next sharp up swing in Bitcoin in the coming months," Kendrick said, adding he sees bitcoin hitting a new record high of around $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025.

肯德里克說：“我們預計，在接下來的幾個月中，我們的資產將獲得戰略資產重新分配，以觸發比特幣的下一個急劇搖擺。”

Still, it's far too early to say bitcoin has severed its ties with macroeconomic developments.

儘管如此，現在說比特幣已經切斷了與宏觀經濟發展的聯繫還為時過早。

Bitcoin's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 0.45 in early April but has crept back up to 0.87, according to LSEG data, where 1 indicates they are moving in lockstep.

根據LSEG數據，比特幣與標準普爾500指數的30天相關性在4月初短暫下降至0.45，但根據LSEG數據，逐回到0.87，其中1表示它們正在鎖定。

And it still remains some ways away from its January record high.

而且仍然有一些距離其一月份的紀錄高的方式。

"I think we'll inevitably see periods going forward

“我認為我們不可避免地會看到未來的時期