比特币优势正在通过熟悉的模式进行，下一个目标可能为66％

目前，交易者正在观看的最大事情之一就是比特币的主导地位，以及它如何通过一些非常熟悉的模式进行。

Now one of the biggest things traders are watching closely is Bitcoin dominance, and how it’s moving through some pretty familiar patterns.

现在，交易者正在密切关注的最大的事情之一就是比特币的主导地位，以及它如何通过一些非常熟悉的模式进行。

As you know, Bitcoin dominance seems to follow certain patterns, especially when it hits key Fibonacci levels. It usually stalls a bit at these levels before continuing its ascent. The next target could be around 66%, which aligns with a trend observed in Bitcoin pairs.

如您所知，比特币优势似乎遵循某些模式，尤其是在达到斐波那契级的关键水平时。在继续上升之前，它通常会在这些级别上停滞不前。下一个目标可能是66％左右，这与比特币对观察到的趋势保持一致。

Analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests this could be a short-term goal and might even mark the peak of the current cycle.

分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）认为这可能是一个短期目标，甚至可能标志着当前周期的峰值。

Moreover, he keeps an eye on a metric that combines Bitcoin dominance with USDT and USDC dominance. In the last cycle, this metric peaked at 75%, and a similar occurrence could be expected this time.

此外，他一直在关注将比特币优势与USDT和USDC优势相结合的度量。在最后一个周期中，该度量达到75％的峰值，并且这次可能会发生类似的情况。

According to Cowen, once quantitative tightening begins to wind down, we’ll likely witness a significant shift across the cryptocurrency market. However, until then, Bitcoin’s dominance might keep rising, leaving altcoins behind.

根据Cowen的说法，一旦定量收紧开始逐渐减少，我们可能会看到整个加密货币市场的重大转变。但是，在那之前，比特币的统治地位可能会继续上升，而将山寨币留在后面。

Now, switching over to Ethereum, it has recently returned to its fair value, as explained by the analyst.

现在，转向以太坊，它最近恢复了其公允价值，正如分析师所解释的那样。

Historically, we’ve seen that Ethereum tends to rise during Bitcoin’s bull runs, but it’s often been bleeding against Bitcoin. If Ethereum manages to hold its ground and altcoins perform well, then we might see an altcoin rally in the future.

从历史上看，我们已经看到，以太坊在比特币的公牛跑期间往往会上升，但通常会对比特币流血。如果以太坊设法保持其地面并表现良好，那么我们将来可能会看到Altcoin集会。

However, once again, the timing will be crucial, which will be signaled by a change in monetary policy or when Bitcoin’s dominance begins to stabilize.

但是，再次，时机将是至关重要的，这将由货币政策的变化或比特币的主导地位开始稳定时发出信号。

When asked about the four-year cycle and whether it’s still relevant, Cowen believes it provides a useful framework, especially for observing Bitcoin’s lows, which have occurred roughly every four years. Based on this cycle, we can anticipate the next low for Bitcoin around late 2026.

当被问及四年周期以及是否仍然相关时，Cowen认为它提供了一个有用的框架，尤其是对于观察比特币的低点，大约每四年就会发生一次。基于这个周期，我们可以预期2026年底左右的比特币下一个低点。

Nonetheless, predicting the peak within each cycle is a more challenging endeavor. Typically, Bitcoin has seen peaks about a year before its cycle lows. If this pattern continues, the top could be in 2025. However, Cowen doesn’t foresee Bitcoin reaching $300K in this cycle.

但是，预测每个周期内的峰值是一个更具挑战性的努力。通常，比特币在周期低点之前就达到了大约一年的高峰。如果这种模式持续下去，顶部可能是2025年。但是，Cowen在此周期中不会预见比特币达到30万美元。

According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s top is expected around 2025. If the broader economy remains strong, we might see Bitcoin push past its previous highs, with an estimated top between $120K to $170K. But for this to happen smoothly, the macroeconomic environment must cooperate, with unemployment rates remaining low.

根据Cowen的说法，比特币的顶级预计将在2025年左右。如果更广泛的经济状况仍然强劲，我们可能会看到比特币超越了先前的高点，估计高于12万美元至17万美元。但是为了顺利进行，宏观经济环境必须合作，失业率保持较低。

Finally, Bitcoin’s future is closely linked to the broader market and macroeconomic conditions. The S&P 500 could provide some clues—if it keeps rising, we might see Bitcoin follow suit. However, if the S&P 500 stumbles, or if economic cracks begin to show, that bullish setup could get derailed quickly.

最后，比特币的未来与更广泛的市场和宏观经济状况密切相关。标准普尔500指数可以提供一些线索 - 如果它不断上升，我们可能会看到比特币效仿。但是，如果标准普尔500指数偶然，或者经济裂缝开始表明，则看涨的设置可能会很快出轨。

At the end of the day, Bitcoin’s next big moves aren’t solely about crypto anymore. They are increasingly tied to how the broader economy performs—something every trader should be keeping a close eye on.

归根结底，比特币的下一个大动作不再仅仅关乎加密货币。他们越来越与更广泛的经济表现联系在一起 - 每个交易者都应该密切关注。