Bitcoin Dominance Is Moving Through Familiar Patterns, Next Target Could Be 66%

Right now, one of the biggest things traders are watching is Bitcoin dominance, and how it's moving through some pretty familiar patterns.

Now one of the biggest things traders are watching closely is Bitcoin dominance, and how it’s moving through some pretty familiar patterns.

As you know, Bitcoin dominance seems to follow certain patterns, especially when it hits key Fibonacci levels. It usually stalls a bit at these levels before continuing its ascent. The next target could be around 66%, which aligns with a trend observed in Bitcoin pairs.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests this could be a short-term goal and might even mark the peak of the current cycle.

Moreover, he keeps an eye on a metric that combines Bitcoin dominance with USDT and USDC dominance. In the last cycle, this metric peaked at 75%, and a similar occurrence could be expected this time.

According to Cowen, once quantitative tightening begins to wind down, we’ll likely witness a significant shift across the cryptocurrency market. However, until then, Bitcoin’s dominance might keep rising, leaving altcoins behind.

Now, switching over to Ethereum, it has recently returned to its fair value, as explained by the analyst.

Historically, we’ve seen that Ethereum tends to rise during Bitcoin’s bull runs, but it’s often been bleeding against Bitcoin. If Ethereum manages to hold its ground and altcoins perform well, then we might see an altcoin rally in the future.

However, once again, the timing will be crucial, which will be signaled by a change in monetary policy or when Bitcoin’s dominance begins to stabilize.

When asked about the four-year cycle and whether it’s still relevant, Cowen believes it provides a useful framework, especially for observing Bitcoin’s lows, which have occurred roughly every four years. Based on this cycle, we can anticipate the next low for Bitcoin around late 2026.

Nonetheless, predicting the peak within each cycle is a more challenging endeavor. Typically, Bitcoin has seen peaks about a year before its cycle lows. If this pattern continues, the top could be in 2025. However, Cowen doesn’t foresee Bitcoin reaching $300K in this cycle.

According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s top is expected around 2025. If the broader economy remains strong, we might see Bitcoin push past its previous highs, with an estimated top between $120K to $170K. But for this to happen smoothly, the macroeconomic environment must cooperate, with unemployment rates remaining low.

Finally, Bitcoin’s future is closely linked to the broader market and macroeconomic conditions. The S&P 500 could provide some clues—if it keeps rising, we might see Bitcoin follow suit. However, if the S&P 500 stumbles, or if economic cracks begin to show, that bullish setup could get derailed quickly.

At the end of the day, Bitcoin’s next big moves aren’t solely about crypto anymore. They are increasingly tied to how the broader economy performs—something every trader should be keeping a close eye on.