比特幣優勢正在通過熟悉的模式進行，下一個目標可能為66％

目前，交易者正在觀看的最大事情之一就是比特幣的主導地位，以及它如何通過一些非常熟悉的模式進行。

Now one of the biggest things traders are watching closely is Bitcoin dominance, and how it’s moving through some pretty familiar patterns.

現在，交易者正在密切關注的最大的事情之一就是比特幣的主導地位，以及它如何通過一些非常熟悉的模式進行。

As you know, Bitcoin dominance seems to follow certain patterns, especially when it hits key Fibonacci levels. It usually stalls a bit at these levels before continuing its ascent. The next target could be around 66%, which aligns with a trend observed in Bitcoin pairs.

如您所知，比特幣優勢似乎遵循某些模式，尤其是在達到斐波那契級的關鍵水平時。在繼續上升之前，它通常會在這些級別上停滯不前。下一個目標可能是66％左右，這與比特幣對觀察到的趨勢保持一致。

Analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests this could be a short-term goal and might even mark the peak of the current cycle.

分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）認為這可能是一個短期目標，甚至可能標誌著當前週期的峰值。

Moreover, he keeps an eye on a metric that combines Bitcoin dominance with USDT and USDC dominance. In the last cycle, this metric peaked at 75%, and a similar occurrence could be expected this time.

此外，他一直在關注將比特幣優勢與USDT和USDC優勢相結合的度量。在最後一個週期中，該度量達到75％的峰值，並且這次可能會發生類似的情況。

According to Cowen, once quantitative tightening begins to wind down, we’ll likely witness a significant shift across the cryptocurrency market. However, until then, Bitcoin’s dominance might keep rising, leaving altcoins behind.

根據Cowen的說法，一旦定量收緊開始逐漸減少，我們可能會看到整個加密貨幣市場的重大轉變。但是，在那之前，比特幣的統治地位可能會繼續上升，而將山寨幣留在後面。

Now, switching over to Ethereum, it has recently returned to its fair value, as explained by the analyst.

現在，轉向以太坊，它最近恢復了其公允價值，正如分析師所解釋的那樣。

Historically, we’ve seen that Ethereum tends to rise during Bitcoin’s bull runs, but it’s often been bleeding against Bitcoin. If Ethereum manages to hold its ground and altcoins perform well, then we might see an altcoin rally in the future.

從歷史上看，我們已經看到，以太坊在比特幣的公牛跑期間往往會上升，但通常會對比特幣流血。如果以太坊設法保持其地面並表現良好，那麼我們將來可能會看到Altcoin集會。

However, once again, the timing will be crucial, which will be signaled by a change in monetary policy or when Bitcoin’s dominance begins to stabilize.

但是，再次，時機將是至關重要的，這將由貨幣政策的變化或比特幣的主導地位開始穩定時發出信號。

When asked about the four-year cycle and whether it’s still relevant, Cowen believes it provides a useful framework, especially for observing Bitcoin’s lows, which have occurred roughly every four years. Based on this cycle, we can anticipate the next low for Bitcoin around late 2026.

當被問及四年周期以及是否仍然相關時，Cowen認為它提供了一個有用的框架，尤其是對於觀察比特幣的低點，大約每四年就會發生一次。基於這個週期，我們可以預期2026年底左右的比特幣下一個低點。

Nonetheless, predicting the peak within each cycle is a more challenging endeavor. Typically, Bitcoin has seen peaks about a year before its cycle lows. If this pattern continues, the top could be in 2025. However, Cowen doesn’t foresee Bitcoin reaching $300K in this cycle.

但是，預測每個週期內的峰值是一個更具挑戰性的努力。通常，比特幣在周期低點之前就達到了大約一年的高峰。如果這種模式持續下去，頂部可能是2025年。但是，Cowen在此週期中不會預見比特幣達到30萬美元。

According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s top is expected around 2025. If the broader economy remains strong, we might see Bitcoin push past its previous highs, with an estimated top between $120K to $170K. But for this to happen smoothly, the macroeconomic environment must cooperate, with unemployment rates remaining low.

根據Cowen的說法，比特幣的頂級預計將在2025年左右。如果更廣泛的經濟狀況仍然強勁，我們可能會看到比特幣超越了先前的高點，估計高於12萬美元至17萬美元。但是為了順利進行，宏觀經濟環境必須合作，失業率保持較低。

Finally, Bitcoin’s future is closely linked to the broader market and macroeconomic conditions. The S&P 500 could provide some clues—if it keeps rising, we might see Bitcoin follow suit. However, if the S&P 500 stumbles, or if economic cracks begin to show, that bullish setup could get derailed quickly.

最後，比特幣的未來與更廣泛的市場和宏觀經濟狀況密切相關。標準普爾500指數可以提供一些線索 - 如果它不斷上升，我們可能會看到比特幣效仿。但是，如果標準普爾500指數偶然，或者經濟裂縫開始表明，則看漲的設置可能會很快出軌。

At the end of the day, Bitcoin’s next big moves aren’t solely about crypto anymore. They are increasingly tied to how the broader economy performs—something every trader should be keeping a close eye on.

歸根結底，比特幣的下一個大動作不再僅僅關乎加密貨幣。他們越來越與更廣泛的經濟表現聯繫在一起 - 每個交易者都應該密切關注。