比特币的当前周期落后还是成熟？

随着比特币的价格攀升至95,000美元以上，一些市场观察家开始质疑当前周期相对于以前的公牛跑步表现不佳。

With Bitcoin's price hovering above $95,000, several market watchers have started to wonder if the current cycle is lagging compared to previous bull runs.

随着比特币的价格徘徊在95,000美元以上，几位市场观察家开始怀疑与以前的公牛跑步相比，当前周期是否落后。

However, according to Sina, a co-founder at 21st Capital and the creator of the Bitcoin Cycle Model, those concerns might be premature.

但是，根据21st Capital的联合创始人，比特币周期模型的创建者Sina的说法，这些担忧可能为时过早。

In a recent tweet on May 3, Sina unveiled his unique Bitcoin Cycle Model. This model combines traditional Quantile Modeling (QM) with additional cycle timing components.

在5月3日的最新推文中，西娜推出了他独特的比特币周期模型。该模型将传统的分位数建模（QM）与其他循环正时组件结合在一起。

It integrates Bitcoin's historical price performance with the average performance of prior cycles to examine if the current market behavior is lagging or not.

它将比特币的历史价格表现与先前周期的平均表现相结合，以检查当前市场行为是否落后。

The chart showcases several key indicators:

该图显示了几个关键指标：

• The green line depicts the average price evolution of each Bitcoin cycle since 2011.

•绿线描述了自2011年以来每个比特币周期的平均价格演变。

• The blue lines highlight the typical Quantile ranges (25%, 50%, and 75%) for each cycle.

•蓝线突出显示了每个周期的典型分位数范围（25％，50％和75％）。

• Bollinger Bands measure price volatility relative to a 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA).

•鲍林乐队相对于20周的简单移动平均线（SMA）测量价格波动。

The visualization clearly shows that Bitcoin is still following the expected growth trajectory, albeit at a pace consistent with diminishing returns, a characteristic of each successive cycle.

可视化清楚地表明，比特币仍在遵循预期的生长轨迹，尽管其速度与回报的速度相一致，这是每个连续循环的特征。

Diminished Volatility Doesn’t Mean Deviation

波动性降低并不意味着偏差

Sina further explains that while this cycle might appear “boring” due to the slowing volatility, it's not lagging. He adds that the rapid pace of Bitcoin ETFs, the post-halving price action, and significant macro narratives (including potential political shifts like a Trump re-election) have already pulled forward some of the anticipated price growth.

西娜进一步解释说，尽管由于波动的放缓，该周期可能“无聊”，但并没有落后。他补充说，比特币ETF的迅速步伐，备注后的价格行动以及重大的宏观叙事（包括特朗普连任等潜在的政治转变）已经提高了一些预期的价格增长。

“We are still on track,” Sina reassures the crypto community, adding that the pattern remains evident even if the pace is less explosive than in 2017 or 2021.

“我们仍在正轨，”西娜向加密货币社区保证，并补充说，即使比2017年或2021年的爆炸性较小，这种模式仍然很明显。

Why This Matters

为什么这很重要

With large institutions now playing a bigger role in the crypto space and Bitcoin ETFs rapidly absorbing liquidity, short-term price stagnation could be the new normal. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is off-course.

现在，大型机构在加密货币空间中发挥了更大的作用，比特币ETF迅速吸收了流动性，短期价格停滞可能是新的常态。但是，这并不一定意味着牛市是偏僻的。

So, is Bitcoin's current cycle lagging or maturing? Only time will tell. But one thing is for sure: the crypto market is full of surprises.

那么，比特币的当前周期落后还是成熟？只有时间会证明。但是可以肯定的是：加密市场充满了惊喜。