比特幣的當前週期落後還是成熟？

隨著比特幣的價格攀升至95,000美元以上，一些市場觀察家開始質疑當前週期相對於以前的公牛跑步表現不佳。

With Bitcoin's price hovering above $95,000, several market watchers have started to wonder if the current cycle is lagging compared to previous bull runs.

隨著比特幣的價格徘徊在95,000美元以上，幾位市場觀察家開始懷疑與以前的公牛跑步相比，當前週期是否落後。

However, according to Sina, a co-founder at 21st Capital and the creator of the Bitcoin Cycle Model, those concerns might be premature.

但是，根據21st Capital的聯合創始人，比特幣週期模型的創建者Sina的說法，這些擔憂可能為時過早。

In a recent tweet on May 3, Sina unveiled his unique Bitcoin Cycle Model. This model combines traditional Quantile Modeling (QM) with additional cycle timing components.

在5月3日的最新推文中，西娜推出了他獨特的比特幣週期模型。該模型將傳統的分位數建模（QM）與其他循環正時組件結合在一起。

It integrates Bitcoin's historical price performance with the average performance of prior cycles to examine if the current market behavior is lagging or not.

它將比特幣的歷史價格表現與先前週期的平均表現相結合，以檢查當前市場行為是否落後。

The chart showcases several key indicators:

該圖顯示了幾個關鍵指標：

• The green line depicts the average price evolution of each Bitcoin cycle since 2011.

•綠線描述了自2011年以來每個比特幣週期的平均價格演變。

• The blue lines highlight the typical Quantile ranges (25%, 50%, and 75%) for each cycle.

•藍線突出顯示了每個週期的典型分位數範圍（25％，50％和75％）。

• Bollinger Bands measure price volatility relative to a 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA).

•鮑林樂隊相對於20週的簡單移動平均線（SMA）測量價格波動。

The visualization clearly shows that Bitcoin is still following the expected growth trajectory, albeit at a pace consistent with diminishing returns, a characteristic of each successive cycle.

可視化清楚地表明，比特幣仍在遵循預期的生長軌跡，儘管其速度與回報的速度相一致，這是每個連續循環的特徵。

Diminished Volatility Doesn’t Mean Deviation

波動性降低並不意味著偏差

Sina further explains that while this cycle might appear “boring” due to the slowing volatility, it's not lagging. He adds that the rapid pace of Bitcoin ETFs, the post-halving price action, and significant macro narratives (including potential political shifts like a Trump re-election) have already pulled forward some of the anticipated price growth.

西娜進一步解釋說，儘管由於波動的放緩，該週期可能“無聊”，但並沒有落後。他補充說，比特幣ETF的迅速步伐，備註後的價格行動以及重大的宏觀敘事（包括特朗普連任等潛在的政治轉變）已經提高了一些預期的價格增長。

“We are still on track,” Sina reassures the crypto community, adding that the pattern remains evident even if the pace is less explosive than in 2017 or 2021.

“我們仍在正軌，”西娜向加密貨幣社區保證，並補充說，即使比2017年或2021年的爆炸性較小，這種模式仍然很明顯。

Why This Matters

為什麼這很重要

With large institutions now playing a bigger role in the crypto space and Bitcoin ETFs rapidly absorbing liquidity, short-term price stagnation could be the new normal. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is off-course.

現在，大型機構在加密貨幣空間中發揮了更大的作用，比特幣ETF迅速吸收了流動性，短期價格停滯可能是新的常態。但是，這並不一定意味著牛市是偏僻的。

So, is Bitcoin's current cycle lagging or maturing? Only time will tell. But one thing is for sure: the crypto market is full of surprises.

那麼，比特幣的當前週期落後還是成熟？只有時間會證明。但是可以肯定的是：加密市場充滿了驚喜。