Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes说，美国政府的比特币（BTC）战略储备是“纯粹的幻想”

在亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）看来，美国可能有一天成为大规模比特币买家的想法是纯粹的幻想。

The idea that the United States might one day become a large-scale Bitcoin buyer is, in Arthur Hayes’ view, pure fantasy.

在亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）看来，美国可能有一天成为大规模比特币买家的想法是纯粹的幻想。

The BitMEX co-founder recently pushed back on the concept of a U.S. “strategic reserve” of BTC, suggesting that fiscal reality and political optics make it virtually impossible.

BITMEX联合创始人最近重新推出了BTC的“战略储备”的概念，这表明财政现实和政治光学数学几乎使它变得不可能。

Speaking in an interview on May 1, Hayes dismissed the notion that America would ever proactively build a Bitcoin reserve beyond the holdings it already controls—mostly assets seized through law enforcement actions. Given the nation’s spiraling deficit, he argued, there’s little room to justify printing money to accumulate more crypto.

海耶斯在5月1日的一次采访中发表讲话时驳斥了美国人将积极建立比特币储备金的观念，超出了它已经控制的持股，这主要是通过执法行动夺取的资产。他认为，鉴于该国的螺旋赤字，几乎没有空间可以证明印刷资金积累了更多的加密货币。

But the optics matter too. Hayes pointed out that the public perception of Bitcoin—still tied to stereotypical “crypto bro” culture—would make such a policy a hard sell for any politician trying to appeal to mainstream voters. “Would a public official really want to associate monetary strategy with nightclub selfies and meme coins?” he mused.

但是光学器件也很重要。海耶斯指出，公众对比特币的看法 - 与刻板印象的“加密兄弟”文化有关，将使任何试图吸引主流选民的政治家都很难卖出这样的政策。 “公职人员真的想将货币战略与夜总会自拍照和模因硬币联系起来吗？”他沉思。

READ MORE: Tether Looks to Regain U.S. Presence With New Stablecoin

阅读更多：系绳希望通过新的Stablecoin重新获得美国的存在

While the U.S. government holds close to 200,000 BTC through past seizures, such as those tied to the Silk Road and Bitfinex incidents, there’s no indication it plans to add more. However, Hayes’ skepticism contrasts with growing speculation that geopolitical competition over Bitcoin could heat up.

尽管美国政府通过过去的癫痫发作（例如与丝绸之路和Bitfinex事件相关的事件）持有近200,000 BTC，但没有迹象表明它计划增加更多。但是，海斯的怀疑与越来越多的猜测形成鲜明对比，即对比特币的地缘政治竞争可能会加热。

At a recent industry event in Dubai, 1inch’s Sergej Kunz suggested that if the U.S. made any further moves toward hoarding Bitcoin, it could trigger a global rush among smaller nations trying to keep up.

在迪拜最近举行的一项行业活动中，1英寸的Sergej Kunz建议，如果美国采取了进一步的ho积比特币，这可能会引发试图跟上较小国家的全球冲刺。

Switching gears to market structure, Hayes also reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin’s market cycle remains predictable. He expects the same pattern to repeat: Bitcoin rallies first, hits dominance highs, and then capital begins to rotate into altcoins. He sees Bitcoin’s dominance rising to 70%, just as it did prior to the 2021 altcoin boom.

将齿轮转向市场结构，海斯还重申了他相信比特币的市场周期仍然可以预见的信念。他期望相同的模式重复：比特币集会首先，命中率高，然后资本开始旋转成山寨币。他认为比特币的统治地位上升到70％，就像2021年山寨币繁荣之前一样。

However, not everyone is convinced that dominance metrics still matter. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen have suggested Bitcoin’s dominance will stall around 60%, while others argue that today’s altcoin momentum operates independently of BTC trends. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju, for example, believes altseasons are now driven more by stablecoin and fiat pairings, rather than Bitcoin outflows.

但是，并不是每个人都相信主导指标仍然重要。像本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）这样的分析师表明，比特币的主导地位将停滞在60％左右，而其他人则认为当今的替代币动量独立于BTC趋势。例如，CryptoQuant的Ki Young Ju认为，目前，Alts季节更多地由Stablecoin和Fiat配对，而不是比特币流出。

At present, BTC’s dominance is trending around 65%, reflecting a clear shift since the start of the year—though whether the historical cycle repeats as Hayes predicts remains to be seen.

目前，BTC的统治地位趋势约为65％，这反映了自今年年初以来的明显转变，尽管Hayes预测的历史周期是否重复了。