Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes說，美國政府的比特幣（BTC）戰略儲備是“純粹的幻想”

在亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）看來，美國可能有一天成為大規模比特幣買家的想法是純粹的幻想。

The idea that the United States might one day become a large-scale Bitcoin buyer is, in Arthur Hayes’ view, pure fantasy.

在亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）看來，美國可能有一天成為大規模比特幣買家的想法是純粹的幻想。

The BitMEX co-founder recently pushed back on the concept of a U.S. “strategic reserve” of BTC, suggesting that fiscal reality and political optics make it virtually impossible.

BITMEX聯合創始人最近重新推出了BTC的“戰略儲備”的概念，這表明財政現實和政治光學數學幾乎使它變得不可能。

Speaking in an interview on May 1, Hayes dismissed the notion that America would ever proactively build a Bitcoin reserve beyond the holdings it already controls—mostly assets seized through law enforcement actions. Given the nation’s spiraling deficit, he argued, there’s little room to justify printing money to accumulate more crypto.

海耶斯在5月1日的一次採訪中發表講話時駁斥了美國人將積極建立比特幣儲備金的觀念，超出了它已經控制的持股，這主要是通過執法行動奪取的資產。他認為，鑑於該國的螺旋赤字，幾乎沒有空間可以證明印刷資金積累了更多的加密貨幣。

But the optics matter too. Hayes pointed out that the public perception of Bitcoin—still tied to stereotypical “crypto bro” culture—would make such a policy a hard sell for any politician trying to appeal to mainstream voters. “Would a public official really want to associate monetary strategy with nightclub selfies and meme coins?” he mused.

但是光學器件也很重要。海耶斯指出，公眾對比特幣的看法 - 與刻板印象的“加密兄弟”文化有關，將使任何試圖吸引主流選民的政治家都很難賣出這樣的政策。 “公職人員真的想將貨幣戰略與夜總會自拍照和模因硬幣聯繫起來嗎？”他沉思。

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While the U.S. government holds close to 200,000 BTC through past seizures, such as those tied to the Silk Road and Bitfinex incidents, there’s no indication it plans to add more. However, Hayes’ skepticism contrasts with growing speculation that geopolitical competition over Bitcoin could heat up.

儘管美國政府通過過去的癲癇發作（例如與絲綢之路和Bitfinex事件相關的事件）持有近200,000 BTC，但沒有跡象表明它計劃增加更多。但是，海斯的懷疑與越來越多的猜測形成鮮明對比，即對比特幣的地緣政治競爭可能會加熱。

At a recent industry event in Dubai, 1inch’s Sergej Kunz suggested that if the U.S. made any further moves toward hoarding Bitcoin, it could trigger a global rush among smaller nations trying to keep up.

在迪拜最近舉行的一項行業活動中，1英寸的Sergej Kunz建議，如果美國採取了進一步的ho積比特幣，這可能會引發試圖跟上較小國家的全球衝刺。

Switching gears to market structure, Hayes also reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin’s market cycle remains predictable. He expects the same pattern to repeat: Bitcoin rallies first, hits dominance highs, and then capital begins to rotate into altcoins. He sees Bitcoin’s dominance rising to 70%, just as it did prior to the 2021 altcoin boom.

將齒輪轉向市場結構，海斯還重申了他相信比特幣的市場週期仍然可以預見的信念。他期望相同的模式重複：比特幣集會首先，命中率高，然後資本開始旋轉成山寨幣。他認為比特幣的統治地位上升到70％，就像2021年山寨幣繁榮之前一樣。

However, not everyone is convinced that dominance metrics still matter. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen have suggested Bitcoin’s dominance will stall around 60%, while others argue that today’s altcoin momentum operates independently of BTC trends. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju, for example, believes altseasons are now driven more by stablecoin and fiat pairings, rather than Bitcoin outflows.

但是，並不是每個人都相信主導指標仍然重要。像本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）這樣的分析師表明，比特幣的主導地位將停滯在60％左右，而其他人則認為當今的替代幣動量獨立於BTC趨勢。例如，CryptoQuant的Ki Young Ju認為，目前，Alts季節更多地由Stablecoin和Fiat配對，而不是比特幣流出。

At present, BTC’s dominance is trending around 65%, reflecting a clear shift since the start of the year—though whether the historical cycle repeats as Hayes predicts remains to be seen.

目前，BTC的統治地位趨勢約為65％，這反映了自今年年初以來的明顯轉變，儘管Hayes預測的歷史週期是否重複了。