比特币（BTC）市场供暖，因为投机指标指出了主要上行潜力

根据Axel Adler Jr的新分析，比特币的市场正在稳步建立动力，投机性指标闪烁着更高移动的早期迹象。

Bitcoin’s market is steadily building momentum, with speculative indicators flashing early signs of a significant move higher, according to a new analysis by Axel Adler Jr., an independent market commentary.

根据独立市场评论Axel Adler Jr.的新分析，比特币的市场正在稳步增强动力，投机性指标闪烁着更高的重大移动迹象。

Adler notes that the current speculative multiplier — a measure of how much Bitcoin’s price is stretched relative to its long-term averages — is now sitting at 2.1, about 31% above its three-year average.

阿德勒指出，目前的投机乘数（衡量比特币的价格相对于其长期平均值而言是多少）现在位于2.1，比其三年平均水平高出约31％。

While elevated, this level still leaves ample room before Bitcoin would hit the “extreme euphoria” peaks historically associated with cycle tops.

虽然提高了，但在比特币达到与周期顶部相关的“极端欣快感”的峰值之前，这个水平仍然留下了足够的空间。

[coin_tube id=1846536766]

[COIN_TUBE ID = 1846536766]

“The speculative multiplier is now 2.1, which is about 31% above its 3-year average and indicates that we are slowly moving into overheated territory. However, at 2.1, there is still some space for further escalation before reaching levels that would be consistent with 'extreme euphoria,'” explains Adler.

“投机性乘数现在为2.1，比其3年平均值高约31％，表明我们正在慢慢进入过热的领土。但是，在2.1时，在达到“极端euphoria”水平之前，仍有一些进一步升级的空间，” Adler解释说。”

Moreover, the three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for BTC is currently running at about +30% — a healthy but moderate level.

此外，BTC的三年复合年增长率（CAGR）目前的运行率约为 +30％ - 健康但中等水平。

For comparison, at Bitcoin’s 2022 peak, the 3-year CAGR exceeded +120%, showing the market is far from a full-blown speculative frenzy.

为了进行比较，在比特币2022年的峰值上，3年的CAGR超过 +120％，表明市场远非全面投机性疯狂。

“This is a healthy level of market appreciation, especially considering the fact that the 3-year CAGR reached astronomical highs of over +120% at the peak of the speculative cycle in 2022. At that time, it was clear that the market was becoming wildly exuberant, but we are far from anything like that today.”

“这是一个健康的市场欣赏水平，尤其是考虑到这一事实是，在2022年投机循环的高峰期，3年的CAGR的天文生长高度超过120％。当时，很明显，市场正在变得非常繁荣，但我们今天远非如此之所以如此。”

These readings suggest that while Bitcoin has enjoyed a strong rally, the broader cycle may still have significant room to leave before topping out.

这些读物表明，虽然比特币享受了强烈的集会，但更广泛的周期可能仍然有很大的离开的空间，然后再出现。

Potential Targets: $120K to $175K

潜在目标：$ 120K至$ 175K

Using market capitalization versus realized capitalization (MC/RC) ratios, Adler outlines two key potential scenarios:

使用市值与实现资本化（MC/RC）比率，Adler概述了两个关键的潜在方案：

In a benign macroeconomic setup, he sees potential for MC/RC to rise to around 4.0. This aligns with the peaks observed during the 2017 cycle. At an MC/RC of 4.0, Bitcoin would be trading at around $120,000.

在良性的宏观经济设置中，他认为MC/RC可能会升至4.0左右。这与2017年周期期间观察到的峰保持一致。在MC/RC为4.0的情况下，比特币的交易价格约为120,000美元。

If macroeconomic tailwinds become more pronounced, setting the stage for a "super bull market" in Bitcoin, Adler believes MC/RC could escalate even further, potentially reaching levels last seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble or the 2009 apex of the last commodities super cycle. Such a move could propel Bitcoin to highs of $175,000 or more.

如果宏观经济的尾风变得更加明显，为比特币的“超级牛市”奠定了基础，Adler认为MC/RC可能会进一步升级，可能达到2000年Dot-Com Bubble或2009年最新商品超级周期的2009年最高水平。这样的举动可以将比特币提升至175,000美元或更多。

“In a benign macroeconomic scenario, we could see MC/RC rise to about 4.0, which is the level reached during the 2.0 speculative cycle in 2017. At an MC/RC of 4.0, Bitcoin would be trading at around $120,000.

“在良性的宏观经济方案中，我们可以看到MC/RC上升到约4.0，这是2017年2.0投机循环中达到的水平。在MC/RC的4.0中，比特币的交易价格约为120,000美元。

“However, if we begin to see macroeconomic tailwinds setting the stage for a 'super bull market' in Bitcoin, then we might see MC/RC escalate even further, perhaps reaching levels last seen during the 2.0 speculative cycle in 2000 with the dot-com bubble, or the 2009 apex of the last commodities super cycle. This would put Bitcoin at around $175,000 or higher.”

“但是，如果我们开始看到宏观经济的尾管为比特币的'超级牛市'奠定了基础，那么我们可能会看到MC/RC进一步升级，也许在2000年的2.0投机循环中达到的水平上升，而Dot-Com Bubble则使用了Dot-Com Bubble，或者是最后一家商品的2009年Apex，这将使BitCoin of Bitcoin of Bitcoin of Bige of Figh。

Conclusion: Metrics Confirm a Heating Market

结论：指标证实了供暖市场

While short-term corrections remain possible, Axel Adler Jr.’s analysis shows that the market fundamentals are heating up, but are not yet in extreme territory.

尽管短期校正仍然可以进行，但小阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler）的分析表明，市场基本面正在加热，但尚未在极端领土上。

This positioning could set the stage for significant upside potential, especially if macroeconomic conditions turn more favorable.

这种定位可能为巨大的上升潜力奠定了基础，尤其是如果宏观经济状况变得更加有利。

In short, Bitcoin’s next major leg higher may just be getting started — and the data backs it up.

简而言之，比特币的下一个主要腿更高可能正在开始 - 数据将其备份。