比特幣（BTC）市場供暖，因為投機指標指出了主要上行潛力

根據Axel Adler Jr的新分析，比特幣的市場正在穩步建立動力，投機性指標閃爍著更高移動的早期跡象。

Bitcoin’s market is steadily building momentum, with speculative indicators flashing early signs of a significant move higher, according to a new analysis by Axel Adler Jr., an independent market commentary.

根據獨立市場評論Axel Adler Jr.的新分析，比特幣的市場正在穩步增強動力，投機性指標閃爍著更高的重大移動跡象。

Adler notes that the current speculative multiplier — a measure of how much Bitcoin’s price is stretched relative to its long-term averages — is now sitting at 2.1, about 31% above its three-year average.

阿德勒指出，目前的投機乘數（衡量比特幣的價格相對於其長期平均值而言是多少）現在位於2.1，比其三年平均水平高出約31％。

While elevated, this level still leaves ample room before Bitcoin would hit the “extreme euphoria” peaks historically associated with cycle tops.

雖然提高了，但在比特幣達到與週期頂部相關的“極端欣快感”的峰值之前，這個水平仍然留下了足夠的空間。

[coin_tube id=1846536766]

[COIN_TUBE ID = 1846536766]

“The speculative multiplier is now 2.1, which is about 31% above its 3-year average and indicates that we are slowly moving into overheated territory. However, at 2.1, there is still some space for further escalation before reaching levels that would be consistent with 'extreme euphoria,'” explains Adler.

“投機性乘數現在為2.1，比其3年平均值高約31％，表明我們正在慢慢進入過熱的領土。但是，在2.1時，在達到“極端euphoria”水平之前，仍有一些進一步升級的空間，” Adler解釋說。 ”

Moreover, the three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for BTC is currently running at about +30% — a healthy but moderate level.

此外，BTC的三年復合年增長率（CAGR）目前的運行率約為 +30％ - 健康但中等水平。

For comparison, at Bitcoin’s 2022 peak, the 3-year CAGR exceeded +120%, showing the market is far from a full-blown speculative frenzy.

為了進行比較，在比特幣2022年的峰值上，3年的CAGR超過 +120％，表明市場遠非全面投機性瘋狂。

“This is a healthy level of market appreciation, especially considering the fact that the 3-year CAGR reached astronomical highs of over +120% at the peak of the speculative cycle in 2022. At that time, it was clear that the market was becoming wildly exuberant, but we are far from anything like that today.”

“這是一個健康的市場欣賞水平，尤其是考慮到這一事實是，在2022年投機循環的高峰期，3年的CAGR的天文生長高度超過120％。當時，很明顯，市場正在變得非常繁榮，但我們今天遠非如此之所以如此。”

These readings suggest that while Bitcoin has enjoyed a strong rally, the broader cycle may still have significant room to leave before topping out.

這些讀物表明，雖然比特幣享受了強烈的集會，但更廣泛的周期可能仍然有很大的離開的空間，然後再出現。

Potential Targets: $120K to $175K

潛在目標：$ 120K至$ 175K

Using market capitalization versus realized capitalization (MC/RC) ratios, Adler outlines two key potential scenarios:

使用市值與實現資本化（MC/RC）比率，Adler概述了兩個關鍵的潛在方案：

In a benign macroeconomic setup, he sees potential for MC/RC to rise to around 4.0. This aligns with the peaks observed during the 2017 cycle. At an MC/RC of 4.0, Bitcoin would be trading at around $120,000.

在良性的宏觀經濟設置中，他認為MC/RC可能會升至4.0左右。這與2017年周期期間觀察到的峰保持一致。在MC/RC為4.0的情況下，比特幣的交易價格約為120,000美元。

If macroeconomic tailwinds become more pronounced, setting the stage for a "super bull market" in Bitcoin, Adler believes MC/RC could escalate even further, potentially reaching levels last seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble or the 2009 apex of the last commodities super cycle. Such a move could propel Bitcoin to highs of $175,000 or more.

如果宏觀經濟的尾風變得更加明顯，為比特幣的“超級牛市”奠定了基礎，Adler認為MC/RC可能會進一步升級，可能達到2000年Dot-Com Bubble或2009年最新商品超級週期的2009年最高水平。這樣的舉動可以將比特幣提升至175,000美元或更多。

“In a benign macroeconomic scenario, we could see MC/RC rise to about 4.0, which is the level reached during the 2.0 speculative cycle in 2017. At an MC/RC of 4.0, Bitcoin would be trading at around $120,000.

“在良性的宏觀經濟方案中，我們可以看到MC/RC上升到約4.0，這是2017年2.0投機循環中達到的水平。在MC/RC的4.0中，比特幣的交易價格約為120,000美元。

“However, if we begin to see macroeconomic tailwinds setting the stage for a 'super bull market' in Bitcoin, then we might see MC/RC escalate even further, perhaps reaching levels last seen during the 2.0 speculative cycle in 2000 with the dot-com bubble, or the 2009 apex of the last commodities super cycle. This would put Bitcoin at around $175,000 or higher.”

“但是，如果我們開始看到宏觀經濟的尾管為比特幣的'超級牛市'奠定了基礎，那麼我們可能會看到MC/RC進一步升級，也許在2000年的2.0投機循環中達到的水平上升，而Dot-Com Bubble則使用了Dot-Com Bubble，或者是最後一家商品的2009年Apex，這將使BitCoin of Bitcoin of Bitcoin of Bige of Figh。

Conclusion: Metrics Confirm a Heating Market

結論：指標證實了供暖市場

While short-term corrections remain possible, Axel Adler Jr.’s analysis shows that the market fundamentals are heating up, but are not yet in extreme territory.

儘管短期校正仍然可以進行，但小阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler）的分析表明，市場基本面正在加熱，但尚未在極端領土上。

This positioning could set the stage for significant upside potential, especially if macroeconomic conditions turn more favorable.

這種定位可能為巨大的上升潛力奠定了基礎，尤其是如果宏觀經濟狀況變得更加有利。

In short, Bitcoin’s next major leg higher may just be getting started — and the data backs it up.

簡而言之，比特幣的下一個主要腿更高可能正在開始 - 數據將其備份。