比特币（BTC）生态系统看到新的资本浪潮，30天轮换达到16.7％

Axel Adler Jr.最近创建的X帖子解释了动态和轨迹向比特币（BTC）生态系统中新一波资本浪潮的一些重要变化。

A recently created X post by Axel Adler Jr. brings to light some crucial shifts in dynamics and trajectory towards a new wave of capital in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem.

Axel Adler Jr.最近创建的X帖子使动态和轨迹的一些关键转移向比特币（BTC）生态系统中的新一波资本浪潮。

The 30-Day Capital Rotation, a primary metric that measures the share of realized capital from “new” coins (less than one month old), is currently at 16.7%. This signals a consistent, healthy inflow of fresh capital into Bitcoin without the wild volatility usually seen with speculative euphoria. The metric essentially shows the proportion of the trading volume driven by new players versus old players returning to the market.

30天的资本轮换是一个主要指标，该指标衡量了“新”硬币（少于一个月大）的资本所占份额，目前为16.7％。这标志着新鲜资本流入比特币的一致，健康的流入，而没有通常用投机性欣快感看到的野生波动。该指标实质上显示了由新参与者与返回市场的老球员驱动的交易量的比例。

In the past, higher values of this metric, around 35% or so, have been linked to particularly aggressive hype periods and rapid price spikes.

过去，该度量的较高值左右，大约35％左右，与特别激进的炒作期和价格快速峰值有关。

Bitcoin's Take-off Driven by Retail Speculation

零售投机驱动的比特币的起飞

The post by Axel Adler Jr. includes a lengthy chart titled "Bitcoin Capital Rotation New vs Old," which displays Bitcoin's price action in relation to capital rotation over the past few years.

Axel Adler Jr.的帖子包括一张冗长的图表，标题为“比特币资本轮换新与Old”，该图表显示了过去几年中与资本轮换有关的比特币的价格行动。

The chart highlights three key moments: a 53% increase in January 2021 when BTC was in a speculative frenzy; two more moderate peaks around 35%, with short-term rally episodes; and a current level of 16.7%, which was noted in May 2025.

该图表突出了三个关键时刻：2021年1月BTC处于投机性狂热时增长了53％；大约35％的中等峰值，短期集会发作；目前的水平为16.7％，在2025年5月指出。

The 53% figure for January 2021, as Adler mentions, was the height of the "speculator euphoria." At that time, BTC's price soared with a massive influx of retail investors and institutional interest, leading to a strong after-effect with a significant correction from the highs.

正如阿德勒（Adler）所提到的，2021年1月的53％数字是“投机者欣快感”的高度。当时，BTC的价格飙升，大量的散户投资者和机构利益涌入，导致了强烈的后效应，并从高处进行了重大纠正。

Current Bitcoin Cycle Demonstrates Market Maturity

当前的比特币周期证明了市场成熟度

On the other hand, the 16.7% figure for today presents a calmer picture. While it indicates that new money is still entering the market, it's doing so at a rate that fosters stability rather than mania.

另一方面，今天的16.7％数字显示了一张平静的图片。虽然这表明新资金仍在进入市场，但它以促进稳定而不是躁狂症的速度这样做。

According to the chart, while the capital rotation line stands well below former peaks, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise steadily, fueled by the tepid interest of investors, not temporary enthusiasm. This signals a mature stage for Bitcoin, where investor behaviors reflect a more optimistic long-term outlook.

根据图表的说法，尽管资本轮换线远低于以前的峰值，但由于投资者（而不是暂时的热情）的胜利，比特币的价格继续稳步上涨。这标志着比特币的成熟阶段，投资者的行为反映了更乐观的长期前景。

The post post also mentions that the current cycle is being driven by organic growth, which is collecting dust in the down-wave and now being used to push prices higher.

帖子帖子还提到，当前周期是由有机增长驱动的，有机增长是在下波动中收集灰尘，现在被用来推动价格提高。

With this stable flow, BTC can be positioned to move in a more sustainable upward trend. However, if the 30-Day Capital Rotation begins to approach 35% again, it might herald another round of rapid price appreciation.

凭借这种稳定的流动，BTC可以定位以更可持续的向上趋势。但是，如果30天的资本轮换再次开始接近35％，它可能会预示着另一轮快速价格升值。