Bitcoin (BTC) Ecosystem Sees New Wave of Capital as 30-Day Rotation Reaches 16.7%

A recently created X post from Axel Adler Jr. explains some important shifts in dynamics and trajectory towards a new wave of capital in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem.

A recently created X post by Axel Adler Jr. brings to light some crucial shifts in dynamics and trajectory towards a new wave of capital in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem.

The 30-Day Capital Rotation, a primary metric that measures the share of realized capital from “new” coins (less than one month old), is currently at 16.7%. This signals a consistent, healthy inflow of fresh capital into Bitcoin without the wild volatility usually seen with speculative euphoria. The metric essentially shows the proportion of the trading volume driven by new players versus old players returning to the market.

In the past, higher values of this metric, around 35% or so, have been linked to particularly aggressive hype periods and rapid price spikes.

Bitcoin's Take-off Driven by Retail Speculation

The post by Axel Adler Jr. includes a lengthy chart titled "Bitcoin Capital Rotation New vs Old," which displays Bitcoin's price action in relation to capital rotation over the past few years.

The chart highlights three key moments: a 53% increase in January 2021 when BTC was in a speculative frenzy; two more moderate peaks around 35%, with short-term rally episodes; and a current level of 16.7%, which was noted in May 2025.

The 53% figure for January 2021, as Adler mentions, was the height of the "speculator euphoria." At that time, BTC's price soared with a massive influx of retail investors and institutional interest, leading to a strong after-effect with a significant correction from the highs.

Current Bitcoin Cycle Demonstrates Market Maturity

On the other hand, the 16.7% figure for today presents a calmer picture. While it indicates that new money is still entering the market, it's doing so at a rate that fosters stability rather than mania.

According to the chart, while the capital rotation line stands well below former peaks, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise steadily, fueled by the tepid interest of investors, not temporary enthusiasm. This signals a mature stage for Bitcoin, where investor behaviors reflect a more optimistic long-term outlook.

The post post also mentions that the current cycle is being driven by organic growth, which is collecting dust in the down-wave and now being used to push prices higher.

With this stable flow, BTC can be positioned to move in a more sustainable upward trend. However, if the 30-Day Capital Rotation begins to approach 35% again, it might herald another round of rapid price appreciation.