資深加密分析師鮑勃·盧卡斯（Bob Loukas）減少了他的比特幣曝光率

我們的新聞是如何製作的

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, increasing the cash weighting in his model portfolio as the bull market progresses. In an update published April 8th, Loukas explained the move, highlighting both technical deterioration in the Bitcoin price and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop.

資深加密分析師鮑勃·盧卡斯（Bob Loukas）減少了他的比特幣曝光率，隨著牛市的發展，他的模型投資組合中的現金加權增加了。在4月8日發布的更新中，Loukas解釋了這一舉動，強調了比特幣價格的技術惡化和宏觀經濟背景惡化。

As part of a planned adjustment, Loukas sold one-third of his model portfolio's Bitcoin allocation at $79,500, bringing it down to 27 BTC. The remaining capital will be held in cash to await new opportunities.

作為計劃調整的一部分，Loukas以79,500美元的價格出售了他的車型投資組合分配的三分之一，將其降至27 BTC。剩餘的資本將以現金持有，以等待新的機會。

"I still think that we have the ability to push later in the year or early next year to a high in the four-year cycle," Loukas said, but he noted that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach.

盧卡斯說：“我仍然認為，我們有能力在四年周期中或明年年初推動高漲。”

"I'm not calling for this to be the top in the cycle, but I'm saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low-risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance."

“我並不是要求這是周期中的最高點，但我是說，它成為頂級的可能性已經增加了……從低風險的可能性到可能更像三分之一的東西，您知道，機會是33％的機會。”

Bitcoin Bull In Doubt

比特幣公牛

The portfolio shift, which brings the model’s Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for immediate collapse but rather a hedge against rising downside risk.

投資組合轉移將模型的比特幣分配降至27 BTC，其餘的現金並不是要立即崩潰的，而是避免下降下行風險的對沖。

“My decision is not based on any sudden events or market panic,” Loukas stressed, adding that his move is aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history.

Loukas強調說：“我的決定並不是基於任何突然的事件或市場恐慌。”他補充說，他的舉動與比特幣價格歷史的周期性結構所告知的長期策略保持一致。

He further explained that his strategy, previously discussed in February, involves reducing Bitcoin exposure if the next weekly cycle fails to hold support and takes out recent lows.

他進一步解釋說，他以前在2月進行了討論的策略涉及減少比特幣的暴露，如果下一個每週週期未能保持支持並取消最近的低點。

“Now, in the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often. But if it does happen, it’s usually a sign that the market is transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle.”

“現在，在牛市的第三年，您不想像我們在2月份那樣看到大低的低點……然後被淘汰。它不會經常發生。但是，如果確實發生，通常這表明市場正在過渡到四年周期的下降階段。”

Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle.

Loukas指出，每周和每月的圖表都違反了一系列趨勢線和嚴重的支持中斷。他認為，雖然認識到技術中斷並非孤立地對周期頂部的可靠預測指標，但他認為他們增加了一個論點，即市場可能正在過渡到四年周期的下降階段。

“We are now… 29 months into the cycle, so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.”

“我們現在是……循環29個月，所以現在我只需要更加認真對待它就足夠深了。”

Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside.

儘管分析師仍然長期看漲 - 強勁的價格績效，ETF流入和機構採用，但他警告說，宏觀經濟的逆風可能會加速短期的缺點。

“There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.”

Loukas指出：“關稅，貿易和經濟存在嚴重的宏觀問題。” “幾十年來，我們還沒有看到這種影響或破壞對世界貿易的影響……這可能……成為全球衰退的全球衰退。”

In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas’ view, unrealistic.

在這種情況下，在盧卡斯（Loukas）看來，比特幣可以完全與風險資產完全解散的想法仍然是不現實的。

“With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.”

“隨著ETF如此新，Saylor和其他人（機構或Tradfi參與比特幣），使我相信，完整的脫鉤……可能是不現實的。”

The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity.

分析師概述了一個可能的熊情況，其中比特幣將其下降到52,000美元的水平，比1月份的高點大約有50％的回波。 Loukas強調這不是預測，而是偶然性，但他表示，這樣的舉動可以帶來強大的重返機會。

“If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.”

“如果在接下來的一個月到三個月中的比特幣有些機會下降到54,000美元的水平，我會認為那時我想在50％的回撤就足夠了……我想在其中重新部署一些風險。”

He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.”

他補充說，在他看來，任何重大的集會隨後較低的低點都將確認四年的周期頂部。 “大幅上升，然後隨後的移動……幾乎是棺材中的最後一指釘子。”

Still, Loukas hasn’t ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns.

儘管如此，Loukas今年晚些時候尚未排除更高的高潮。他浮動了一個非典型的“超級右翻譯週期”的可能性，其中比特幣遠遠超出了標準月-35個月窗口（也許是41個月或42個月左右），並通過急劇但短暫的校正，然後繼續進入下一個四年周期。這種更具投機性的情況將涉及復雜的雙重甚至三泵結構，與2013年和2021週期模式相呼應。

For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure.

目前，模型投資組合仍然是對比特幣投資的三分之二，而Loukas重申，即使以減少曝光率為代價，他也更喜歡看漲的結果。

“I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down

“我更喜歡騎三分之二的位置，最高$ 150萬美元，$ 20萬美元，甚至比我要說的要多，'好吧，比特幣的後退