Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure

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Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, increasing the cash weighting in his model portfolio as the bull market progresses. In an update published April 8th, Loukas explained the move, highlighting both technical deterioration in the Bitcoin price and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop.

As part of a planned adjustment, Loukas sold one-third of his model portfolio's Bitcoin allocation at $79,500, bringing it down to 27 BTC. The remaining capital will be held in cash to await new opportunities.

"I still think that we have the ability to push later in the year or early next year to a high in the four-year cycle," Loukas said, but he noted that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach.

"I'm not calling for this to be the top in the cycle, but I'm saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low-risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance."

Bitcoin Bull In Doubt

The portfolio shift, which brings the model’s Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for immediate collapse but rather a hedge against rising downside risk.

“My decision is not based on any sudden events or market panic,” Loukas stressed, adding that his move is aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history.

He further explained that his strategy, previously discussed in February, involves reducing Bitcoin exposure if the next weekly cycle fails to hold support and takes out recent lows.

“Now, in the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often. But if it does happen, it’s usually a sign that the market is transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle.”

Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle.

“We are now… 29 months into the cycle, so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.”

Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside.

“There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.”

In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas’ view, unrealistic.

“With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.”

The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity.

“If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.”

He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.”

Still, Loukas hasn’t ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns.

For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure.

“I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down