比特幣與股票市場的脫離

4月，許多加密市場觀察家正在撰寫有關比特幣與股票的持續分離或差異的撰寫，這意味著比特幣價格的軌跡與股票和股票相比，比特幣的軌跡邁出了不同的方向。

In April, many crypto market observers were writing about an ongoing decoupling or divergence of Bitcoin from equities, meaning that the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price took a different direction compared to stocks and equities. Bitcoin and Gold are up, while the American dollar and stocks are down. However, opinions among market experts on whether the Bitcoin and equities markets have truly diverged vary.

4月，許多加密市場觀察家正在撰寫有關比特幣與股票的持續分離或差異的撰寫，這意味著比特幣價格的軌跡與股票和股票相比，比特幣的軌跡邁出了不同的方向。比特幣和黃金已經上升，而美元和股票下跌。但是，市場專家對比特幣和股票市場是否真正分歧的看法有所不同。

Some enthusiastically proclaim that Bitcoin has decoupled from risk assets and joined Gold as a safe haven. The reason is not hard to see: lately, Bitcoin and Gold have been the only major assets with positive price movements. On April 21, 2025, the price of Gold crossed the $3,400 mark for the first time. This unprecedented rally is widely seen as a response to growing uncertainty among investors, stocks and altcoins went through a wave of liquidations and some of the strongest declines in years, prompting a shift toward Gold.

一些人熱情地宣布，比特幣已經與風險資產脫鉤，並加入了黃金作為避風港。原因不難看到：最近，比特幣和黃金是唯一具有正價變動的主要資產。 2025年4月21日，黃金的價格首次超過了3,400美元。這種前所未有的集會被廣泛認為是對投資者，股票和山寨幣之間不確定性日益確定的反應，多年來經歷了清算浪潮，有些人最強的下降，促使人們向黃金邁出了轉變。

For most of the 2020s, the gold price fluctuated between $1,800 and $2,000, only starting to climb in the fall of 2023. MacroTrends points to a correlation between the price of gold and global economic uncertainty. Another correlation is the alignment of gold prices with the level of U.S. national debt.

在2020年代的大部分時間裡，黃金價格在$ 1,800到2,000美元之間波動，僅在2023年秋天才開始攀升。另一個關聯是黃金價格與美國國債水平的一致。

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven. Bitcoin has a similar reputation among many investors. However, an influx of institutional investors buying Bitcoin led to a relative alignment of BTC’s price with stocks. Some viewed Bitcoin as an extension of the stock market, but with higher price amplitude. The chart below clearly shows that over the past three years, Bitcoin has mirrored Nasdaq movements closely, mimicking its ups and downs with sharper swings.

傳統上，黃金被視為避風港。比特幣在許多投資者中享有類似的聲譽。但是，購買比特幣的機構投資者的湧入導致BTC的價格與股票的相對一致。一些人將比特幣視為股票市場的擴展，但價格幅度更高。下圖清楚地表明，在過去的三年中，比特幣緊密地反映了納斯達克的動作，模仿了其跌宕起伏的動作。

Experts remain divided on this. For instance, in March 2025, BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick stated that Bitcoin is still yet to consistently move in line with Wall Street, although he anticipates it will happen as more TradFi investors start trading Bitcoin.

專家對此仍然有分歧。例如，在2025年3月，貝萊德（Blackrock）的羅比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）表示，比特幣仍未與華爾街保持一致，儘管他預計這會發生，隨著越來越多的tradfi投資者開始交易比特幣。

Did Bitcoin really decouple from stocks?

比特幣真的從股票中解散了嗎？

The second half of April saw Bitcoin and Gold rise, while major assets including stocks and the USD dropped. On April 22 alone, Bitcoin gained 7%, while risk assets ended the day in negative territory.

4月下半年，比特幣和黃金上升，而包括股票和美元在內的主要資產下降了。僅在4月22日，比特幣上漲了7％，而風險資產在負面的領土上結束了。

Many in the crypto community quickly reacted, declaring that Bitcoin was undergoing a decoupling from stocks. Bitcoin and Gold seemed to confirm their roles as safe havens, while other assets appeared increasingly risky and vulnerable amid political and economic turmoil.

加密貨幣社區中的許多人迅速做出了反應，宣布比特幣正在與股票脫鉤。比特幣和黃金似乎證實了它們作為避風港的作用，而在政治和經濟動蕩的情況下，其他資產似乎越來越冒險和脆弱。

Some commenters attributed the Bitcoin rally to increased liquidity, encouraging investors to “ignore the noise.” They argue that Bitcoin can surge thanks to technical triggers even when news sentiment is mixed. Others pointed to macro headlines as a major driver of the demand for Bitcoin, including comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting a possible de-escalation between the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, headlines reported that India was considering sanctions against China, and China itself urged countries to reject collaboration with the U.S.

一些評論者將比特幣集會歸因於增加的流動性，鼓勵投資者“忽略噪音”。他們認為，即使是新聞情緒，比特幣也會激發技術觸發因素。其他人則指出，宏觀標題是對比特幣需求的主要驅動力，其中包括美國財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）的評論，表明美國和中國之間可能會降低。同時，頭條新聞報導說，印度正在考慮對中國的製裁，中國本身敦促各國拒絕與美國的合作

In this light, it appears that Bitcoin’s rally was at least partly news-driven. Such major economic shake-ups don’t happen often, suggesting that the current decoupling may be more extraordinary than permanent. Bitcoin could realign with the stock market once the trade tensions subside.

據此，看來比特幣的集會至少部分是新聞驅動的。這種重大的經濟改動不會經常發生，這表明當前的去耦可能比永久性更為非凡。一旦貿易緊張局勢消退，比特幣可能會與股票市場重新分配。

Why is decoupling important?

為什麼解耦很重要？

We asked our market analyst and trader, Ekta Mourya, to enlighten our readers on this topic. Here’s what she replied to why decoupling is important and whether she sees the current decoupling as a temporary or a long-term phase:

我們要求我們的市場分析師和交易員Ekta Mourya啟發我們的讀者有關此主題的啟發。這是她回答為什麼解耦為何重要的原因，以及她是否將當前的脫鉤視為臨時或長期階段：

“Bitcoin’s decoupling comes at a time when the largest cryptocurrency’s correlation with Gold rises. BTC’s outperformance against the Nasdaq during Trump’s tariff crisis marked a pivotal shift in Bitcoin’s price this cycle, bringing back the ‘digital Gold’ narrative.

“比特幣的脫鉤是在當時最大的加密貨幣與黃金的相關性。在特朗普的關稅危機期間，BTC對納斯達克的表現超出了納斯達克的表現，這標誌著比特幣價格這個週期的關鍵轉移，從而恢復了“數字黃金”的敘述。

Bitcoin’s 30-day Pearson correlation coefficient with Gold is up from -0.7 in March 2025 to 0.45 and rising as of April 2025. For traders, this signals an opportunity to enter long positions; it opens doors for Bitcoin’s re-test of the $109K all-time high and likely price discovery.

比特幣與黃金的30天Pearson相關係數從2025年3月的-0.7增加到0.45，截至2025年4月。對於交易者來說，這標誌著有機會進入長位位置；它為比特幣的重新測試打開了109K $ 109,000的價格發現。

Bitcoin’s divergence from the stock market feels more like a temporary blip than a permanent shift. Market volatility, tariff tensions, and weak earnings are rattling U.S. equities, while Bitcoin is catching a bid as a safe haven for traders’ capital. However, structurally, BTC has always stood apart; it is a high-beta asset with a growing appeal for portfolio diversification. Both retail and institutional traders should watch Bitcoin for its evolving risk/reward profile and gains.”

比特幣與股票市場的分歧更像是暫時的碎片，而不是永久性的轉變。市場波動，關稅緊張局勢和疲軟的收入使美國的股票震撼，而比特幣則是競標作為交易者資本的避風港。但是，從結構上講，BTC總是脫穎而出。這是一種高β資產，對投資組合多元化的吸引力越來越大。零售和機構交易者都應觀看比特幣的不斷發展的風險/回報概況和收益。 ”