资深加密分析师鲍勃·卢卡斯（Bob Loukas）减少了他的比特币曝光率

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Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, increasing the cash weighting in his model portfolio as the bull market progresses. In an update published April 8th, Loukas explained the move, highlighting both technical deterioration in the Bitcoin price and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop.

资深加密分析师鲍勃·卢卡斯（Bob Loukas）减少了他的比特币曝光率，随着牛市的发展，他的模型投资组合中的现金加权增加了。在4月8日发布的更新中，Loukas解释了这一举动，强调了比特币价格的技术恶化和宏观经济背景恶化。

As part of a planned adjustment, Loukas sold one-third of his model portfolio's Bitcoin allocation at $79,500, bringing it down to 27 BTC. The remaining capital will be held in cash to await new opportunities.

作为计划调整的一部分，Loukas以79,500美元的价格出售了他的车型投资组合分配的三分之一，将其降至27 BTC。剩余的资本将以现金持有，以等待新的机会。

"I still think that we have the ability to push later in the year or early next year to a high in the four-year cycle," Loukas said, but he noted that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach.

卢卡斯说：“我仍然认为，我们有能力在四年周期中或明年年初推动高涨。”

"I'm not calling for this to be the top in the cycle, but I'm saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low-risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance."

“我并不是要求这是周期中的最高点，但我是说，它成为顶级的可能性已经增加了……从低风险的可能性到可能更像三分之一的东西，您知道，机会是33％的机会。”

Bitcoin Bull In Doubt

比特币公牛

The portfolio shift, which brings the model’s Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for immediate collapse but rather a hedge against rising downside risk.

投资组合转移将模型的比特币分配降至27 BTC，其余的现金并不是要立即崩溃的，而是避免下降下行风险的对冲。

“My decision is not based on any sudden events or market panic,” Loukas stressed, adding that his move is aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoin’s price history.

Loukas强调说：“我的决定并不是基于任何突然的事件或市场恐慌。”他补充说，他的举动与比特币价格历史的周期性结构所告知的长期策略保持一致。

He further explained that his strategy, previously discussed in February, involves reducing Bitcoin exposure if the next weekly cycle fails to hold support and takes out recent lows.

他进一步解释说，他以前在2月进行了讨论的策略涉及减少比特币的暴露，如果下一个每周周期未能保持支持并取消最近的低点。

“Now, in the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often. But if it does happen, it’s usually a sign that the market is transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle.”

“现在，在牛市的第三年，您不想像我们在2月份那样看到大低的低点……然后被淘汰。它不会经常发生。但是，如果确实发生，通常这表明市场正在过渡到四年周期的下降阶段。”

Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle.

Loukas指出，每周和每月的图表都违反了一系列趋势线和严重的支持中断。他认为，虽然认识到技术中断并非孤立地对周期顶部的可靠预测指标，但他认为他们增加了一个论点，即市场可能正在过渡到四年周期的下降阶段。

“We are now… 29 months into the cycle, so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.”

“我们现在是……循环29个月，所以现在我只需要更加认真对待它就足够深了。”

Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside.

尽管分析师仍然长期看涨 - 强劲的价格绩效，ETF流入和机构采用，但他警告说，宏观经济的逆风可能会加速短期的缺点。

“There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.”

Loukas指出：“关税，贸易和经济存在严重的宏观问题。” “几十年来，我们还没有看到这种影响或破坏对世界贸易的影响……这可能……成为全球衰退的全球衰退。”

In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas’ view, unrealistic.

在这种情况下，在卢卡斯（Loukas）看来，比特币可以完全与风险资产完全解散的想法仍然是不现实的。

“With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.”

“随着ETF如此新，Saylor和其他人（机构或Tradfi涉及比特币），使我相信完全的脱钩……可能是不现实的。”

The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity.

分析师概述了一个可能的熊情况，其中比特币将其下降到52,000美元的水平，比1月份的高点大约有50％的回波。 Loukas强调这不是预测，而是偶然性，但他表示，这样的举动可以带来强大的重返机会。

“If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.”

“如果在接下来的一个月到三个月中的比特币有些机会下降到54,000美元的水平，我会认为那时我想在50％的回撤就足够了……我想在其中重新部署一些风险。”

He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.”

他补充说，在他看来，任何重大的集会随后较低的低点都将确认四年的周期顶部。 “大幅上升，然后随后的移动……几乎是棺材中的最后一指钉子。”

Still, Loukas hasn’t ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns.

尽管如此，Loukas今年晚些时候尚未排除更高的高潮。他浮动了一个非典型的“超级右翻译周期”的可能性，其中比特币远远超出了标准月-35个月窗口（也许是41个月或42个月左右），并通过急剧但短暂的校正，然后继续进入下一个四年周期。这种更具投机性的情况将涉及复杂的双重甚至三泵结构，与2013年和2021周期模式相呼应。

For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure.

目前，模型投资组合仍然是对比特币投资的三分之二，而Loukas重申，即使以减少曝光率为代价，他也更喜欢看涨的结果。

“I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down

“我更喜欢骑三分之二的位置，最高$ 150万美元，$ 20万美元，甚至比我要说的要多，'好吧，比特币的后退