Supermicro（SMCI）股票像令人興奮的山寨幣一樣移動

在過去的五年中，超級微型計算機（NASDAQ：SMCI）的移動與令人興奮的Altcoin相似。

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) stock has moved like an exciting altcoin over the last five years.SMCI shares advanced 1,434% in that period, getting a leg up with the accelerating AI hype from late 2023 to an all-time high of $118.81 in March 2024. The server company suffered reputational damage in September from the Hindenburg Research investment group, which alleged nepotism and accounting malpractice.

超級微型計算機（NASDAQ：SMCI）的股票在過去五年中像令人興奮的山寨幣一樣行動。 SMCI在那個時期內提高了1,434％的股份，從2023年下半年加速AI炒作，從2023年底加速加速炒作，從2024年3月的歷史上的高度為118.81美元，該公司在9月的申請中損害了9月的投資組合，該公司在9月的投資組中受到了損害。瀆職。

During 2025, SMCI stock volatility continued, rallying to $60.25 in February, only to drop to the current price level of $38.36 per share. Nonetheless, Supermicro stock outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) index year-to-date, at 22% vs flatlined 0.05% SPX gains.

在2025年，SMCI股票波動率仍在繼續，2月的漲幅為60.25美元，僅降至目前的每股價格38.36美元。儘管如此，Supermicro股票的表現超過了標準普爾500指數（SPX）索引，以22％的速度與平整的0.05％SPX增益。

With such fruitful price swings in recent history, is it a good idea to consider SMCI stock exposure at its present level?

在最近的歷史中，價格波動如此富有成果，考慮在目前的水平上考慮SMCI股票敞口是個好主意嗎？

Why Did Supermicro Gain Prominence in the First Place?

為什麼首先要獲得Supermicro的重要性？

Although it is possible to have a local large language model (LLM) running thanks to open-source frameworks and models, this will likely remain a niche sector. Case in point, of the global banked population (≈6 billion), only 130.4 million individuals own Bitcoin. This is a tiny 2% in an age of many benefits of having a decentralized store of value that has embedded scarcity.

儘管由於開源框架和模型，可以使用本地大型語言模型（LLM）運行，但這可能仍然是一個利基領域。在全球銀行人口（約60億）中，只有1.304億個人擁有比特幣。這是一個有很多好處的年齡，即具有嵌入稀缺性的價值存儲的年齡，這是一個很小的2％。

In other words, there is always friction when it comes to integrating novel technology at a personal level. As we explored previously, the nature of AI is such that governments are making it happen via private-public partnerships (PPPs). From content generation and algorithmically regulating that content on a granular level, to productivity tools, the future seems to be AI-powered.

換句話說，在個人層面集成新技術時，總是存在摩擦。正如我們之前探索的那樣，人工智能的性質使政府通過私人公共合作夥伴（PPP）實現它。從內容生成和算法從細粒度上調節該內容，再到生產力工具，未來似乎是由AI驅動的。

And as this new AI layer is added to human experience, it will require vast infrastructure in the form of data centers packed with servers. This is Supermicro’s primary fundamental – supply of highly efficient server solutions. At present, the company’s flagship is X14 Hyper system.

隨著這個新的AI層被添加到人類的體驗中，它將需要以包含服務器的數據中心的形式進行龐大的基礎架構。這是Supermicro的主要基本 - 提供高效的服務器解決方案。目前，公司的旗艦是X14 Hyper System。

Featuring Intel’s CPU in a single socket system, and extensive memory and storage scaling, X14 series is purportedly 4x more performant than the last generation of dual socket systems. Such enterprise-grade solutions are critical for running simulations, AI training and general high-performance computing (HPC) workloads.

X14系列在單個插座系統中以英特爾的CPU為特色，並具有廣泛的內存和存儲縮放，據稱比上一代雙插座系統的性能要高4倍。這種企業級解決方案對於運行模擬，AI培訓和一般高性能計算（HPC）工作量至關重要。

“The systems now shipping in volume promise to unlock new capabilities and levels of performance for our customers around the world, featuring low latency, maximum I/O expansion providing high throughput with 256 performance cores per system, 12 memory channels per CPU with MRDIMM support, and high performance EDSFF storage options.”

“現在的系統發貨有望為世界各地的客戶解鎖新的功能和性能水平，其延遲低，最大I/O擴展為每個系統提供256個性能核心，每個CPU提供256個內存頻道，並提供MRDIMM支持和高性能EDSFF存儲選項。”

Even before the wave of AI investments, Supermicro has been a key supplier to Big Tech companies such as Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), currently headed by Larry Ellison as the executive chairman. Since then, Supermicro expanded its offering into liquid-cooled GPU servers and AI-optimized servers.

甚至在AI投資浪潮之前，Supermicro一直是Oracle（NYSE：ORCL）等大型科技公司的主要供應商，該公司目前由拉里·埃里森（Larry Ellison）擔任執行董事長。從那時起，Supermicro將其產品擴展到液冷GPU服務器和AI優化的服務器中。

The question is, how crowded is the server market?

問題是，服務器市場有多擁擠？

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Supermicro’s Positioning in the Server Market

Supermicro在服務器市場中的定位

According to an International Data Corporation (IDC) report this April, the global server market expanded by 89% in Q4 2024. For the full year, the server market grew by 73.5%, compared to non-accelerated (not AI related) server growth of 16.9% year-over-year.

根據今年4月的國際數據公司（IDC）報告，全球服務器市場在2024年第四季度增長了89％。全年，服務器市場增長了73.5％，而非加速（非AI相關）服務器的增長為16.9％。

Expanding into 2029, investors should expect to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3% from the server market. According to CSIMarket, Supermicro holds 10.47% market share. Previously covered Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) holds the global server crown at 44.48%, followed by Hewlett Packard.

投資者應該期望擴展到2029年，將使服務器市場的複合年增長率（CAGR）為16.3％。根據Csimarket的數據，Supermicro持有10.47％的市場份額。先前涵蓋的戴爾技術（NYSE：DELL）將全球服務器皇冠持有44.48％，其次是Hewlett Packard。

Other Supermicro server rivals all fall under 2% market share. As with the wider semiconductor sector in general, this clearly points to heavy concentration, owing to its inherent complexity and scarcity of human capital.

其他超級服務器的競爭對手均低於2％的市場份額。與更廣泛的半導體部門一樣，由於人力資本的固有復雜性和稀缺性，這顯然表明了沉重的集中度。

Another filter is Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) itself, the primary beneficiary of the AI hype thanks to its full stack solutions on both the software and hardware side. Although Nvidia partnered with Dell for its end-to-end AI Factory solutions, the company also has Supermicro as its preferred OEM partner.

另一個過濾器是NVIDIA（NASDAQ：NVDA）本身，這是AI Hype的主要受益人，這要歸功於其在軟件和硬件方面的完整堆棧解決方案。儘管NVIDIA與Dell合作為其端到端的AI工廠解決方案合作，但該公司也將SuperMicro作為其首選OEM合作夥伴。

In early February, Supermicro unveiled its first offering of Nvidia’s cutting edge Blackwell GPUs within its plug-and-play AI Building Blocks modular infrastructure solutions.

2月初，Supermicro在其插件AI構建塊中首次推出了其NVIDIA尖端Blackwell GPU的首次產品。

Is The Server Macro Scene Even More Bullish?

服務器宏場景是否更看好？

Substantial AI moves have occurred since Supermicro’s all-time high stock price of $118.81 in March 2024. Although China’s DeepSeek AI suggested that optimization could lead to

自2024年3月Supermicro的歷史最高股價118.81美元以來，已經發生了大量的AI舉動。儘管中國的DeepSeek AI建議優化可能導致