Supermicro（SMCI）股票像令人兴奋的山寨币一样移动

在过去的五年中，超级微型计算机（NASDAQ：SMCI）的移动与令人兴奋的Altcoin相似。

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) stock has moved like an exciting altcoin over the last five years.SMCI shares advanced 1,434% in that period, getting a leg up with the accelerating AI hype from late 2023 to an all-time high of $118.81 in March 2024. The server company suffered reputational damage in September from the Hindenburg Research investment group, which alleged nepotism and accounting malpractice.

超级微型计算机（NASDAQ：SMCI）的股票在过去五年中像令人兴奋的山寨币一样行动。SMCI在那个时期内提高了1,434％的股份，从2023年下半年加速AI炒作，从2023年底加速加速炒作，从2024年3月的历史上的高度为118.81美元，该公司在9月的申请中损害了9月的投资组合，该公司在9月的投资组中受到了损害。渎职。

During 2025, SMCI stock volatility continued, rallying to $60.25 in February, only to drop to the current price level of $38.36 per share. Nonetheless, Supermicro stock outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) index year-to-date, at 22% vs flatlined 0.05% SPX gains.

在2025年，SMCI股票波动率仍在继续，2月的涨幅为60.25美元，仅降至目前的每股价格38.36美元。尽管如此，Supermicro股票的表现超过了标准普尔500指数（SPX）索引，以22％的速度与平整的0.05％SPX增益。

With such fruitful price swings in recent history, is it a good idea to consider SMCI stock exposure at its present level?

在最近的历史中，价格波动如此富有成果，考虑在目前的水平上考虑SMCI股票敞口是个好主意吗？

Why Did Supermicro Gain Prominence in the First Place?

为什么首先要获得Supermicro的重要性？

Although it is possible to have a local large language model (LLM) running thanks to open-source frameworks and models, this will likely remain a niche sector. Case in point, of the global banked population (≈6 billion), only 130.4 million individuals own Bitcoin. This is a tiny 2% in an age of many benefits of having a decentralized store of value that has embedded scarcity.

尽管由于开源框架和模型，可以使用本地大型语言模型（LLM）运行，但这可能仍然是一个利基领域。在全球银行人口（约60亿）中，只有1.304亿个人拥有比特币。这是一个有很多好处的年龄，即具有嵌入稀缺性的价值存储的年龄，这是一个很小的2％。

In other words, there is always friction when it comes to integrating novel technology at a personal level. As we explored previously, the nature of AI is such that governments are making it happen via private-public partnerships (PPPs). From content generation and algorithmically regulating that content on a granular level, to productivity tools, the future seems to be AI-powered.

换句话说，在个人层面集成新技术时，总是存在摩擦。正如我们之前探索的那样，人工智能的性质使政府通过私人公共合作伙伴（PPP）实现它。从内容生成和算法从细粒度上调节该内容，再到生产力工具，未来似乎是由AI驱动的。

And as this new AI layer is added to human experience, it will require vast infrastructure in the form of data centers packed with servers. This is Supermicro’s primary fundamental – supply of highly efficient server solutions. At present, the company’s flagship is X14 Hyper system.

随着这个新的AI层被添加到人类的体验中，它将需要以包含服务器的数据中心的形式进行庞大的基础架构。这是Supermicro的主要基本 - 提供高效的服务器解决方案。目前，公司的旗舰是X14 Hyper System。

Featuring Intel’s CPU in a single socket system, and extensive memory and storage scaling, X14 series is purportedly 4x more performant than the last generation of dual socket systems. Such enterprise-grade solutions are critical for running simulations, AI training and general high-performance computing (HPC) workloads.

X14系列在单个插座系统中以英特尔的CPU为特色，并具有广泛的内存和存储缩放，据称比上一代双插座系统的性能要高4倍。这种企业级解决方案对于运行模拟，AI培训和一般高性能计算（HPC）工作量至关重要。

“The systems now shipping in volume promise to unlock new capabilities and levels of performance for our customers around the world, featuring low latency, maximum I/O expansion providing high throughput with 256 performance cores per system, 12 memory channels per CPU with MRDIMM support, and high performance EDSFF storage options.”

“现在的系统发货有望为世界各地的客户解锁新的功能和性能水平，其延迟低，最大I/O扩展为每个系统提供256个性能核心，每个CPU提供256个内存频道，并提供MRDIMM支持和高性能EDSFF存储选项。”

Even before the wave of AI investments, Supermicro has been a key supplier to Big Tech companies such as Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), currently headed by Larry Ellison as the executive chairman. Since then, Supermicro expanded its offering into liquid-cooled GPU servers and AI-optimized servers.

甚至在AI投资浪潮之前，Supermicro一直是Oracle（NYSE：ORCL）等大型科技公司的主要供应商，该公司目前由拉里·埃里森（Larry Ellison）担任执行董事长。从那时起，Supermicro将其产品扩展到液冷GPU服务器和AI优化的服务器中。

The question is, how crowded is the server market?

问题是，服务器市场有多拥挤？

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Supermicro’s Positioning in the Server Market

Supermicro在服务器市场中的定位

According to an International Data Corporation (IDC) report this April, the global server market expanded by 89% in Q4 2024. For the full year, the server market grew by 73.5%, compared to non-accelerated (not AI related) server growth of 16.9% year-over-year.

根据今年4月的国际数据公司（IDC）报告，全球服务器市场在2024年第四季度增长了89％。全年，服务器市场增长了73.5％，而非加速（非AI相关）服务器的增长为16.9％。

Expanding into 2029, investors should expect to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3% from the server market. According to CSIMarket, Supermicro holds 10.47% market share. Previously covered Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) holds the global server crown at 44.48%, followed by Hewlett Packard.

投资者应该期望扩展到2029年，将使服务器市场的复合年增长率（CAGR）为16.3％。根据Csimarket的数据，Supermicro持有10.47％的市场份额。先前涵盖的戴尔技术（NYSE：DELL）将全球服务器皇冠持有44.48％，其次是Hewlett Packard。

Other Supermicro server rivals all fall under 2% market share. As with the wider semiconductor sector in general, this clearly points to heavy concentration, owing to its inherent complexity and scarcity of human capital.

其他超级服务器的竞争对手均低于2％的市场份额。与更广泛的半导体部门一样，由于人力资本的固有复杂性和稀缺性，这显然表明了沉重的集中度。

Another filter is Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) itself, the primary beneficiary of the AI hype thanks to its full stack solutions on both the software and hardware side. Although Nvidia partnered with Dell for its end-to-end AI Factory solutions, the company also has Supermicro as its preferred OEM partner.

另一个过滤器是NVIDIA（NASDAQ：NVDA）本身，这是AI Hype的主要受益人，这要归功于其在软件和硬件方面的完整堆栈解决方案。尽管NVIDIA与Dell合作为其端到端的AI工厂解决方案合作，但该公司也将SuperMicro作为其首选OEM合作伙伴。

In early February, Supermicro unveiled its first offering of Nvidia’s cutting edge Blackwell GPUs within its plug-and-play AI Building Blocks modular infrastructure solutions.

2月初，Supermicro在其插件AI构建块中首次推出了其NVIDIA尖端Blackwell GPU的首次产品。

Is The Server Macro Scene Even More Bullish?

服务器宏场景是否更看好？

Substantial AI moves have occurred since Supermicro’s all-time high stock price of $118.81 in March 2024. Although China’s DeepSeek AI suggested that optimization could lead to

自2024年3月Supermicro的历史最高股价118.81美元以来，已经发生了大量的AI举动。尽管中国的DeepSeek AI建议优化可能导致