像紐約市的春天一樣，加密貨幣市場很熱

比特幣形狀從關稅發脾氣延伸到有史以來高高的堅定獵人。這種看漲的複興不是孤立的。

Like springtime in New York City, the crypto market got hot, all at once, in early May.

就像紐約市的春天一樣，加密貨幣市場在5月初都立刻變得很熱。

After weeks of navigating choppy seas, influenced in part by anxieties surrounding the administration’s trade brinksmanship and the specter of a U.S. recession, a palpable shift in sentiment propelled the crypto sphere into a notable rally.

經過數週的通往波濤洶湧的海洋，部分受到政府貿易邊緣術和美國衰退的幽靈的焦慮影響，這種情緒的明顯轉變將加密貨幣球體推向了一個著名的集會。

As of Tuesday, May 7, bitcoin had risen by 20% over the past five days, trading above the psychologically significant $50,000 level. This bullish resurgence was not isolated. Ether, having endured a significant drawdown of over 50% since the start of the year, staged an impressive bounce, gaining 36% in the five days following the much-anticipated Pectra upgrade.

截至5月7日星期二，比特幣在過去五天中增長了20％，交易高於心理意義上的50,000美元。這種看漲的複興不是孤立的。 Ether經歷了自今年年初以來的顯著下降50％以上，他上演了令人印象深刻的彈跳，在備受期待的Pectra升級後的五天中，它獲得了36％的收穫。

The broader blockchain market mirrored this enthusiasm. The CoinDesk 20 Index, the benchmark for the performance of top digital assets, added nearly 18% in the past week, bringing its 30-day return to over 33%. Further down the capitalization spectrum, the CoinDesk 80 Index, which tracks assets beyond the top 20, also rebounded strongly from its lows, delivering 37% over the past month. Demonstrating truly epic participation breadth, the 50-constituent CoinDesk Memecoin Index added a 55% on the week and a whopping 86% in the last month.

更廣泛的區塊鏈市場反映了這種熱情。 Coindesk 20指數是頂級數字資產的性能的基準，在過去一周中增加了近18％，其30天的回報率提高到33％以上。在大寫範圍內，Coindesk 80指數跟踪資產以外的資產超過20號，也從其低點反彈，在過去一個月中佔37％。 50個coindesk memecoin指數展示了真正的史詩般的參與廣度，本週增加了55％，上個月增加了86％。

Given the fundamentally limited (zero) direct impact of tariff and trade news on the intrinsic value of most (all) crypto assets, this lunge higher feels like what they call a “sentiment shift.” With CoinDesk's Consensus conference unfolding this week in Toronto, the timing couldn't be more opportune. The vibes are good.

鑑於關稅和貿易新聞對大多數（全）加密資產的內在價值的根本上有限（零）的直接影響，這種巨型較高的感覺就像他們所說的“情感轉變”一樣。隨著Coindesk在本週在多倫多舉行的共識會議的展開，時間安排就不可能更合適。氛圍很好。

Performance of CoinDesk 20, CoinDesk 80, CoinDesk Memecoin Index, bitcoin, and ether since Liberation Day, April 2, 2025

自2025年4月2日，自解放日以來，Coindesk 20，Coindesk 80，Coindesk Memecoin指數，比特幣和以太的表現

Source: CoinDesk Indices

資料來源：Coindesk指數

The specter of recession

經濟衰退的幽靈

This recent market exuberance, both within digital assets and across traditional risk-on asset classes, has not quelled the underlying concerns of those who believe the United States is gradually inching towards a recession.

在數字資產和傳統風險資產類別中，這種最近的市場旺盛並沒有平息那些認為美國逐漸朝著衰退的人的根本關注。

While the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares recessions, such occurrences are relatively infrequent. Yet, today’s unusual confluence of macroeconomic factors provides fertile ground for wariness.

儘管國家經濟研究局（NBER）正式宣布衰退，但這種情況相對罕見。然而，當今宏觀經濟因素的異常融合為警惕提供了肥沃的理由。

The initial estimate for first-quarter 2025 GDP showed a contraction of 0.3% at an annualized rate, a notable reversal from the 2.4% growth in the previous quarter. True, this figure was skewed downwards by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to beat anticipated tariff increases, yet a contraction in GDP is nonetheless a concerning data point.

2025年GDP第一季度的初步估計顯示，每年的收縮率為0.3％，這顯著逆轉了上一季度的2.4％的增長。的確，隨著企業急於超過預期的關稅增加，這一數字偏向於進口量，但GDP的收縮仍然是一個與數據點有關的。

Adding to this unease is plunging consumer confidence. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in April to 86.0, its lowest level in nearly five years, with the Expectations Index hitting its lowest point since October 2011 – a level often associated with recessionary signals. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index also echoed this weakness, dropping to 52.2 in its preliminary May reading, driven by concerns over trade policy and the potential resurgence of inflation. Furthermore, their survey highlighted a surge in year-ahead inflation expectations to 6.5%, the highest since 1981.

加上這種不安是消費者的信心。會議委員會的消費者信心指數在4月的86.0急劇下降到近五年來的最低水平，預期指數達到了自2011年10月以來的最低點 - 通常與經濟衰退信號相關的水平。密歇根大學的消費者情緒指數也與此弱點相呼應，在對貿易政策的擔憂和潛在的通貨膨脹率的關注下，在其初步閱讀中降至52.2。此外，他們的調查強調，一年一度的通貨膨脹預期的激增為6.5％，是1981年以來最高的。

The growing U.S. debt burden and the persistent inability of the administration to tame the 10-year Treasury yield, despite apparent efforts, despite which the yield continues to hover around 5.3%, further contribute to the sense of fragility. Finally, the potential for collateral damage from ongoing or escalating trade wars, including businesses potentially reducing their workforce in response to disrupted supply chains and increased costs, adds another layer of concern.

儘管明顯的努力，但美國債務負擔不斷增長，政府持續無法馴服10年的財政收益率，儘管這些收益率持續徘徊在5.3％左右，這進一步導致了脆弱感。最後，持續或不斷升級的貿易戰爭造成附帶損害的潛力，包括企業可能會減少勞動力，以應對破壞的供應鏈並增加成本，並增加了另一層關注。

NBER Chart of US Unemployment Levels and Recession Periods Since 1978

自1978年以來，美國失業水平和衰退期的NBER圖表

Source: NBER.org (Hey, NBER, should that read "since 1978?")

資料來源：nber.org（嘿，nber，應該寫“自1978年以來？”）

To be clear, the prevailing sentiment among our network still leans against an imminent recession, and we don’t make predictions. However, to dismiss the possibility of a recession in the current environment seems imprudent.

需要明確的是，我們網絡中普遍的情緒仍然傾向於即將衰退，我們沒有做出預測。但是，駁斥當前環境中衰退的可能性似乎是不明智的。

Bitcoin vs. other digital assets in a downturn

比特幣與其他數字資產低迷

Crypto has only experienced one NBER-declared recession, during the worst of COVID. While the market crisis caused a liquidity panic and significant drawdowns, the subsequent $5 trillion ocean of emergency fiscal stimulus (and millions of homebound people discovering crypto) pointed things north and delivered the 2021 bubble. We may not expect the same path in a future recession. So, what might we expect?

在最糟糕的情況下，加密貨幣只經歷了一次NBER的經濟衰退。儘管市場危機引起了流動性恐慌和大幅下降，但隨後的5萬億美元海洋緊急財政刺激（以及數以百萬計的居家發現加密貨幣的人）指出了北方的東西，並傳達了2021年的泡沫。我們可能不會期望將來的衰退中的同樣的道路。那麼，我們會期待什麼？

On the one hand, there's a compelling argument to be made that bitcoin has now achieved a level of adoption and established a user base sufficient to begin fulfilling its long-touted destiny as a safe haven asset during times of economic turmoil. With the U.S

一方面，有一個令人信服的論點是，比特幣現在已經達到了一定程度的收養水平，並建立了足以在經濟動盪時期開始實現其長期吹捧的命運作為避風港的資產。與美國