短期比特幣持有人退出現場 - 這對市場情緒的看法

Alphractal的新數據表明，短期比特幣持有人（最多持有BTC長達一個月的人）很大程度上是在場的

New data from Alphractal reveals that short-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders, defined as those who have held the cryptocurrency for up to one month, have largely exited the scene. This behavior is typically seen in contrast to euphoric, high-momentum phases of a bull market, where short-term traders usually participate heavily, pushing the market higher.

Alphractal的新數據表明，短期比特幣（BTC）持有人（被定義為那些擁有加密貨幣長達一個月的人）已在很大程度上退出了現場。這種行為通常與牛市的欣快，高摩托階段相反，在牛市中，短期交易者通常會大量參與，從而提高了市場。

Currently, short-term holders control just 2.36 million BTC, a stark drop from previous peaks.

目前，短期持有人僅控制236萬BTC，比以前的峰值下降了。

March 2024: 3.94M BTC

2024年3月：39.4萬BTC

April 2021 (market euphoria): 5.44M BTC

2021年4月（市場欣快）：544萬BTC

This lower level of short-term ownership aligns more closely with bear market behavior, where retail and speculative interest tends to cool, and broader sentiment is usually more subdued.

這種較低的短期所有權水平與熊市的行為更加緊密，零售和投機性利益傾向於冷卻，而且更廣泛的情感通常更加柔和。

What It Signals

它的信號

These investors typically rush in during bullish breakouts, helping to amplify price momentum. Their absence might suggest that the market is still in a "disbelief" phase despite approaching or hitting all-time highs.

這些投資者通常在看漲的突破期間急於加入，有助於擴大價格勢頭。他們的缺席可能表明，儘管接近或達到歷史高潮，但市場仍處於“難以置信”階段。

Instead of piling in during rallies, as they did in 2021, many short-term traders seem hesitant—perhaps exhibiting uncertainty about the sustainability of the move or waiting for the confirmation of a true breakout.

許多短期交易者似乎沒有在集會期間堆積，而是似乎猶豫不決 - 也許對移動的可持續性或等待確認真正突破的不確定性表現出不確定性。

This divergence between price performance and investor participation could have broader implications for the market cycle. Is it still early in the cycle, or could an inflow of short-term holders signal the start of euphoria?

價格績效與投資者參與之間的這種差異可能會對市場週期產生更大的影響。是在周期的早期還是短期持有人的流入表示欣喜的開始？

Until then, the market continues to be driven by longer-term conviction rather than short-term speculative mania.

在此之前，市場繼續由長期定罪而不是短期投機狂熱驅動。