短期比特币持有人退出现场 - 这对市场情绪的看法

Alphractal的新数据表明，短期比特币持有人（最多持有BTC长达一个月的人）很大程度上是在场的

New data from Alphractal reveals that short-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders, defined as those who have held the cryptocurrency for up to one month, have largely exited the scene. This behavior is typically seen in contrast to euphoric, high-momentum phases of a bull market, where short-term traders usually participate heavily, pushing the market higher.

Alphractal的新数据表明，短期比特币（BTC）持有人（被定义为那些拥有加密货币长达一个月的人）已在很大程度上退出了现场。这种行为通常与牛市的欣快，高摩托阶段相反，在牛市中，短期交易者通常会大量参与，从而提高了市场。

Currently, short-term holders control just 2.36 million BTC, a stark drop from previous peaks.

目前，短期持有人仅控制236万BTC，比以前的峰值下降了。

March 2024: 3.94M BTC

2024年3月：39.4万BTC

April 2021 (market euphoria): 5.44M BTC

2021年4月（市场欣快）：544万BTC

This lower level of short-term ownership aligns more closely with bear market behavior, where retail and speculative interest tends to cool, and broader sentiment is usually more subdued.

这种较低的短期所有权水平与熊市的行为更加紧密，零售和投机性利益倾向于冷却，而且更广泛的情感通常更加柔和。

What It Signals

它的信号

These investors typically rush in during bullish breakouts, helping to amplify price momentum. Their absence might suggest that the market is still in a "disbelief" phase despite approaching or hitting all-time highs.

这些投资者通常在看涨的突破期间急于加入，有助于扩大价格势头。他们的缺席可能表明，尽管接近或达到历史高潮，但市场仍处于“难以置信”阶段。

Instead of piling in during rallies, as they did in 2021, many short-term traders seem hesitant—perhaps exhibiting uncertainty about the sustainability of the move or waiting for the confirmation of a true breakout.

许多短期交易者似乎没有在集会期间堆积，而是似乎犹豫不决 - 也许对移动的可持续性或等待确认真正突破的不确定性表现出不确定性。

This divergence between price performance and investor participation could have broader implications for the market cycle. Is it still early in the cycle, or could an inflow of short-term holders signal the start of euphoria?

价格绩效与投资者参与之间的这种差异可能会对市场周期产生更大的影响。是在周期的早期还是短期持有人的流入表示欣喜的开始？

Until then, the market continues to be driven by longer-term conviction rather than short-term speculative mania.

在此之前，市场继续由长期定罪而不是短期投机狂热驱动。