加密至高無上的變化沙子

加密貨幣市場是競爭敘事的戰場，比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）經常處於最前沿。

In the ever-shifting sands of cryptocurrency, the market is a battleground of competing narratives, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) often at the forefront. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting injects a surge of volatility and speculation, one pivotal question arises: will Ethereum, currently languishing at a five-year low against Bitcoin in the ETH/BTC pair, finally break free and outpace its dominant rival in the impending market rebound?

在加密貨幣的不斷變化的沙子中，市場是競爭敘事的戰場，比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）經常處於最前沿。隨著聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）遇到的波動性和投機性的激增，一個關鍵的問題出現了：以太坊（Ethereum）是否會在ETH/BTC對中以比特幣對比特幣的努力，最終在即將到來的市場籃板中脫穎而出並超過其主導的競爭對手？

This article delves into the intricate dynamics of this contest, exploring the technical indicators, on-chain data, and macroeconomic factors that will determine the victor.

本文深入研究了這場比賽的複雜動態，探討了將決定勝利者的技術指標，鏈上數據和宏觀經濟因素。

The FOMC Jolt: A Catalyst for Speculation

FOMC震動：猜測的催化劑

FOMC震動：猜測的催化劑

The FOMC meeting's outcome, hinting at a potentially slowing economy and a possible pause in interest rate hikes, has unsurprisingly sparked a surge in volatility across financial markets, with cryptocurrencies closely following suit.

FOMC會議的結果暗示了經濟的潛在放緩和利率上升的可能暫停，毫不奇怪地激發了整個金融市場的波動，加密貨幣緊隨其後。

The FOMC members' forecasts, known as the “dot plots,” signaled a slight upward revision for 2024's economic outlook compared to March's projections. However, they also predicted a gradual slowdown in economic growth over the next two years, converging on a 1.9% projection for 2025.

與3月的預測相比，FOMC成員的預測（稱為“ DOT”圖案）表示，對2024年的經濟前景進行了略有上升修訂。但是，他們還預測，未來兩年的經濟增長會逐漸放緩，匯聚了2025年的1.9％預測。

Furthermore, the FOMC anticipates interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period. Members now project the federal funds rate to reach a range of 5.0% to 5.25% by year-end, up from March's prediction of 4.9%.

此外，FOMC預計將長期升高利率。現在，成員將聯邦資金利率預測到年底為5.0％至5.25％的範圍，而3月份的預測為4.9％。

These projections suggest that despite a potential pause in the current tightening cycle, interest rates are not expected to return to neutral until 2024, and even then, only gradually.

這些預測表明，儘管當前的緊縮週期中有潛在的停頓，但預計直到2024年才能恢復中立，即使到那時，還不會逐漸恢復中立。

This outlook has implications for cryptocurrency markets. With the U.S. dollar showing signs of renewed strength following the FOMC meeting, and speculations swirling about a potential shift in the macroeconomic narrative, all eyes are on how these developments will influence the cryptocurrency landscape.

這種前景對加密貨幣市場有影響。由於美元在FOMC會議之後顯示出了新的力量的跡象，並且猜測對宏觀經濟敘事的潛在轉變進行了猜測，所有人的目光都關注這些發展將如何影響加密貨幣的景觀。

Technical Indicators: A Glimpse of Potential Reversal

技術指標：潛在逆轉的一瞥

技術指標：潛在逆轉的一瞥

Turning to technical analysis, several indicators suggest that Ethereum may be approaching a trend reversal against Bitcoin.

在進行技術分析時，一些指標表明以太坊可能正在接近針對比特幣的趨勢逆轉。

Examining the eight-hour chart of the ETH/BTC pair, it becomes evident that the price has been closely following the lower band of the Bollinger Bands since May. This close proximity to the lower Bollinger Band suggests that bears maintain a strong presence.

檢查ETH/BTC對的八小時圖表，很明顯，自5月以來，價格一直緊隨Bollinger樂隊的下部樂隊。靠近下鮑林（Bollinger）帶的這種近距離表明，熊保持著很強的存在。

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the 30 level, typically associated with oversold conditions. This further indicates that bears have gained the upper hand in the short term.

此外，相對強度指數（RSI）降至30個水平以下，通常與超售條件有關。這進一步表明，熊在短期內佔據了上風。

However, there are signs of a potential shift. After a substantial decline from the 0.040 area in February, the ETH/BTC pair encountered support at the 0.025 level, which coincides with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

但是，存在潛在轉變的跡象。在2月的0.040面積大幅下降之後，ETH/BTC對遇到了0.025水平的支持，這與斐波那契擴展的127.2％相吻合。

This support zone, crucial for buyers, has stalled the downward momentum, setting the stage for a possible trend reversal.

對於買家而言，這個支持區域至關重要，使下降勢頭停滯不前，為可能的趨勢逆轉奠定了基礎。

On-Chain Data: Fundamental Insights

鏈上數據：基本見解

鏈上數據：基本見解

On-chain data provides valuable insights into the fundamental strength of both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

鏈上的數據為比特幣和以太坊的基本強度提供了寶貴的見解。

Examining Glassnode's analysis, it's clear that Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout 2023. Despite the turbulent first quarter, which saw a 74% drop in realized losses as on-chain holders went through a period of distress, Bitcoin has since recovered remarkably.

在檢查玻璃節的分析時，很明顯，比特幣在2023年都表現出了顯著的韌性。儘管第一季度動盪不安，但由於鍊子持有人經歷了一段痛苦時期，但比特幣恢復了出色的恢復，但實現的損失下降了74％。

In the second quarter, realized losses dropped to $10 billion, a significant decrease from the $73 billion recorded in the first quarter. This recovery is largely attributed to a substantial surge in on-chain realized gains, reaching $154 billion in Q2 alone.

在第二季度，實現的損失下降到100億美元，比第一季度記錄的730億美元大幅下降。這種恢復在很大程度上歸因於鏈上實現的收益大幅增長，僅第2季度就達到了1540億美元。

The magnitude of these realized gains is noteworthy, considering that in the entire year of 2022, realized gains amounted to $243 billion.

考慮到2022年全年，這些實現的收益的規模值得注意，這一數量達到了2430億美元。

This shift from realized losses to gains is a positive development, indicating that Bitcoin is slowly recovering from the 2022 bear market.

從實現的損失到收益的轉變是一個積極的發展，表明比特幣正在慢慢從2022年的熊市中恢復過來。

Moreover, the analysis reveals that the market value realized (MVRV) ratio, an indicator of on-chain holder confidence, has also moved into positive territory.

此外，該分析表明，實現的市場價值（MVRV）比率是鏈持有人信心的指標，也已進入積極的領域。

When the MVRV is below 1, it suggests that on-chain holders are collectively in unrealized loss, and vice versa. At the start of 2023, the MVRV was around 0.3, but by the second quarter of 2023, it rose to 1.16.

當MVRV低於1時，這表明鏈上持有人集體陷入未實現的損失，反之亦然。在2023年初，MVRV約為0.3，但到2023年第二季度，它上升到1.16。

This shift coincides with a 100% increase in market cap during the same period, showcasing a recovery in on-chain holder confidence.

這一轉變與同一時期的市值增加100％相吻合，展示了鏈上持有人信心的恢復。

The Battle for Dominance: ETH vs. BTC

爭取統治力的戰鬥：ETH與BTC

爭取統治力的戰鬥：ETH與BTC

As macroeconomic headwinds continue to batter financial markets, one cryptocurrency pair has come into sharper focus.

隨著宏觀經濟的逆風繼續擊敗金融市場，一對加密貨幣對變得更加焦點。

After a five-year decline, the ETH/BTC pair finally bottomed out at 0.0236 in March, setting the stage for a potential recovery.

經過五年的下降，ETH/BTC對最終在3月的0.0236下降，為潛在的恢復奠定了基礎。