加密至高无上的变化沙子

加密货币市场是竞争叙事的战场，比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）经常处于最前沿。

In the ever-shifting sands of cryptocurrency, the market is a battleground of competing narratives, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) often at the forefront. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting injects a surge of volatility and speculation, one pivotal question arises: will Ethereum, currently languishing at a five-year low against Bitcoin in the ETH/BTC pair, finally break free and outpace its dominant rival in the impending market rebound?

在加密货币的不断变化的沙子中，市场是竞争叙事的战场，比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）经常处于最前沿。随着联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）遇到的波动性和投机性的激增，一个关键的问题出现了：以太坊（Ethereum）是否会在ETH/BTC对中以比特币对比特币的努力，最终在即将到来的市场篮板中脱颖而出并超过其主导的竞争对手？

This article delves into the intricate dynamics of this contest, exploring the technical indicators, on-chain data, and macroeconomic factors that will determine the victor.

本文深入研究了这场比赛的复杂动态，探讨了将决定胜利者的技术指标，链上数据和宏观经济因素。

The FOMC Jolt: A Catalyst for Speculation

FOMC震动：猜测的催化剂

FOMC震动：猜测的催化剂

The FOMC meeting's outcome, hinting at a potentially slowing economy and a possible pause in interest rate hikes, has unsurprisingly sparked a surge in volatility across financial markets, with cryptocurrencies closely following suit.

FOMC会议的结果暗示了经济的潜在放缓和利率上升的可能暂停，毫不奇怪地激发了整个金融市场的波动，加密货币紧随其后。

The FOMC members' forecasts, known as the “dot plots,” signaled a slight upward revision for 2024's economic outlook compared to March's projections. However, they also predicted a gradual slowdown in economic growth over the next two years, converging on a 1.9% projection for 2025.

与3月的预测相比，FOMC成员的预测（称为“ DOT”图案）表示，对2024年的经济前景进行了略有上升修订。但是，他们还预测，未来两年的经济增长会逐渐放缓，汇聚了2025年的1.9％预测。

Furthermore, the FOMC anticipates interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period. Members now project the federal funds rate to reach a range of 5.0% to 5.25% by year-end, up from March's prediction of 4.9%.

此外，FOMC预计将长期升高利率。现在，成员将联邦资金利率预测到年底为5.0％至5.25％的范围，而3月份的预测为4.9％。

These projections suggest that despite a potential pause in the current tightening cycle, interest rates are not expected to return to neutral until 2024, and even then, only gradually.

这些预测表明，尽管当前的紧缩周期中有潜在的停顿，但预计直到2024年才能恢复中立，即使到那时，还不会逐渐恢复中立。

This outlook has implications for cryptocurrency markets. With the U.S. dollar showing signs of renewed strength following the FOMC meeting, and speculations swirling about a potential shift in the macroeconomic narrative, all eyes are on how these developments will influence the cryptocurrency landscape.

这种前景对加密货币市场有影响。由于美元在FOMC会议之后显示出了新的力量的迹象，并且猜测对宏观经济叙事的潜在转变进行了猜测，所有人的目光都关注这些发展将如何影响加密货币的景观。

Technical Indicators: A Glimpse of Potential Reversal

技术指标：潜在逆转的一瞥

技术指标：潜在逆转的一瞥

Turning to technical analysis, several indicators suggest that Ethereum may be approaching a trend reversal against Bitcoin.

在进行技术分析时，一些指标表明以太坊可能正在接近针对比特币的趋势逆转。

Examining the eight-hour chart of the ETH/BTC pair, it becomes evident that the price has been closely following the lower band of the Bollinger Bands since May. This close proximity to the lower Bollinger Band suggests that bears maintain a strong presence.

检查ETH/BTC对的八小时图表，很明显，自5月以来，价格一直紧随Bollinger乐队的下部乐队。靠近下鲍林（Bollinger）带的这种近距离表明，熊保持着很强的存在。

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the 30 level, typically associated with oversold conditions. This further indicates that bears have gained the upper hand in the short term.

此外，相对强度指数（RSI）降至30个水平以下，通常与超售条件有关。这进一步表明，熊在短期内占据了上风。

However, there are signs of a potential shift. After a substantial decline from the 0.040 area in February, the ETH/BTC pair encountered support at the 0.025 level, which coincides with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

但是，存在潜在转变的迹象。在2月的0.040面积大幅下降之后，ETH/BTC对遇到了0.025水平的支持，这与斐波那契扩展的127.2％相吻合。

This support zone, crucial for buyers, has stalled the downward momentum, setting the stage for a possible trend reversal.

对于买家而言，这个支持区域至关重要，使下降势头停滞不前，为可能的趋势逆转奠定了基础。

On-Chain Data: Fundamental Insights

链上数据：基本见解

链上数据：基本见解

On-chain data provides valuable insights into the fundamental strength of both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

链上的数据为比特币和以太坊的基本强度提供了宝贵的见解。

Examining Glassnode's analysis, it's clear that Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout 2023. Despite the turbulent first quarter, which saw a 74% drop in realized losses as on-chain holders went through a period of distress, Bitcoin has since recovered remarkably.

在检查玻璃节的分析时，很明显，比特币在2023年都表现出了显着的韧性。尽管第一季度动荡不安，但由于链子持有人经历了一段痛苦时期，但比特币恢复了出色的恢复，但实现的损失下降了74％。

In the second quarter, realized losses dropped to $10 billion, a significant decrease from the $73 billion recorded in the first quarter. This recovery is largely attributed to a substantial surge in on-chain realized gains, reaching $154 billion in Q2 alone.

在第二季度，实现的损失下降到100亿美元，比第一季度记录的730亿美元大幅下降。这种恢复在很大程度上归因于链上实现的收益大幅增长，仅第2季度就达到了1540亿美元。

The magnitude of these realized gains is noteworthy, considering that in the entire year of 2022, realized gains amounted to $243 billion.

考虑到2022年全年，这些实现的收益的规模值得注意，这一数量达到了2430亿美元。

This shift from realized losses to gains is a positive development, indicating that Bitcoin is slowly recovering from the 2022 bear market.

从实现的损失到收益的转变是一个积极的发展，表明比特币正在慢慢从2022年的熊市中恢复过来。

Moreover, the analysis reveals that the market value realized (MVRV) ratio, an indicator of on-chain holder confidence, has also moved into positive territory.

此外，该分析表明，实现的市场价值（MVRV）比率是链持有人信心的指标，也已进入积极的领域。

When the MVRV is below 1, it suggests that on-chain holders are collectively in unrealized loss, and vice versa. At the start of 2023, the MVRV was around 0.3, but by the second quarter of 2023, it rose to 1.16.

当MVRV低于1时，这表明链上持有人集体陷入未实现的损失，反之亦然。在2023年初，MVRV约为0.3，但到2023年第二季度，它上升到1.16。

This shift coincides with a 100% increase in market cap during the same period, showcasing a recovery in on-chain holder confidence.

这一转变与同一时期的市值增加100％相吻合，展示了链上持有人信心的恢复。

The Battle for Dominance: ETH vs. BTC

争取统治力的战斗：ETH与BTC

争取统治力的战斗：ETH与BTC

As macroeconomic headwinds continue to batter financial markets, one cryptocurrency pair has come into sharper focus.

随着宏观经济的逆风继续击败金融市场，一对加密货币对变得更加焦点。

After a five-year decline, the ETH/BTC pair finally bottomed out at 0.0236 in March, setting the stage for a potential recovery.

经过五年的下降，ETH/BTC对最终在3月的0.0236下降，为潜在的恢复奠定了基础。