黑莓時代結束了。 BlackBerry曾經是一家高飛技術巨頭，在移動設備革命中發揮了關鍵作用，BlackBerry未能在快速發展的消費技術市場中進行創新，並最終失敗了。

現在，Cardano創建者查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）警告說，以太坊可能幾乎失敗。霍斯金森（Hoskinson）認為，隨著用戶遷移到其他區塊鍊和設計缺陷，世界第二大加密貨幣將無法在未來10至15年內生存。

BlackBerry era is over. Once a high-flying tech giant that played a key role in the mobile device revolution, BlackBerry failed to innovate in a rapidly evolving consumer technology market and eventually failed spectacularly.

黑莓時代結束了。 BlackBerry曾經是一家高飛技術巨頭，在移動設備革命中發揮了關鍵作用，BlackBerry未能在快速發展的消費技術市場中進行創新，並最終失敗了。

Now, Cardano creator Charles Hoskinson warns that Ethereum could be next to fail. Hoskinson believes the world’s second-largest crypto will not survive over the next 10 to 15 years as users migrate to other blockchains and design flaws persist.

現在，Cardano創建者查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）警告說，以太坊可能幾乎失敗。霍斯金森（Hoskinson）認為，隨著用戶遷移到其他區塊鍊和設計缺陷，世界第二大加密貨幣將無法在未來10至15年內生存。

In a recent AMA session, Charles Hoskinson claimed that Ethereum’s accounting model, virtual machine, and consensus model are badly designed — a triad of architectural flaws that he thinks are a bane for the blockchain network’s survival.

在最近的AMA會議上，查爾斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）聲稱，以太坊的會計模型，虛擬機和共識模型的設計良好 - 他認為這是區塊鍊網絡生存的禍根的三合一。

“People told them not to do it, they did it, and they got where they needed to go,” he said, before warning that the fixes adopted so far “put in all these weird slashing economics and layer twos and other things,” whose unintentional outcomes are starting to bite.

他說：“人們告訴他們不要這樣做，他們做到了，他們得到了需要去的地方。”他警告說，到目前為止採用的修復程序“投入了所有這些奇怪的經濟學，兩層二人的兩者和其他事物”，他們的無意結局開始咬人。

“I don’t think Ethereum will survive…more than 10 years to 15 years,” Hoskinson asserted.

霍斯金森斷言：“我認為以太坊不會生存……超過10年至15年。”

Hoskinson, who helped co-create Ethereum in 2014 before leaving to launch Cardano two years later, emphasized that Ethereum needs first to solve its technological issues, pointing specifically to its proof-of-stake system as something the network “needs to wean itself off,” as it is not built for long-term success.

霍斯金森（Hoskinson）於2014年幫助共同創造了以太坊，然後兩年後離開了卡爾達諾（Cardano），他強調，以太坊首先需要解決其技術問題，專門指向其銷售證明系統，因為網絡“需要脫離斷奶”，因為它沒有為長期成功而建立。

“They’re going to have to solve the technological issues and they’re going to have to put in a good on-chain governance system so they can make the hard decisions and adjust the system parameters accordingly,” he said.

他說：“他們將不得不解決技術問題，並且必須提出一個良好的鍊子治理系統，以便他們做出艱難的決定並相應地調整系統參數。”

Hoskinson also slammed Ethereum’s layer-2s, which are driving activity away from the main chain. He described these L2s as “parasitic”, predicting that they will continue to suck all the alpha out of the main chain.

霍斯金森還抨擊了以太坊的第2層，這些以太坊的2層正在從主鏈中推動活動。他將這些L2s描述為“寄生”，預測它們將繼續將所有alpha從主鏈中吸出。

In his opinion, Ethereum does not have a good on-chain governance system that would help solve the aforementioned issues.

他認為，以太坊沒有良好的鍊子治理體系，可以幫助解決上述問題。

“People will start fighting, and it’ll get harder and harder for Vitalik to be able to hold it together through sheer force of will, and users will gradually migrate to other places, and then they’re going to get eclipsed by Bitcoin DeFi,” the Cardano founder added.

Cardano創始人補充說：“人們將開始戰鬥，而Vitalik能夠通過意志的純粹力量將其固定在一起，並且用戶將逐漸遷移到其他地方，然後他們將被比特幣Defi黯然失色。”

He conceded that Ethereum is a “brilliant project,” but like Myspace and BlackBerry, the crypto could fade into oblivion as newer, more efficient systems take over.

他承認以太坊是一個“出色的項目”，但是像Myspace和Blackberry一樣，加密貨幣可能會隨著更新，更有效的系統接管而逐漸消失。

“It’s just a victim of its own success, like Myspace or any of these other things that have a lot of network effect and momentum. Blackberry is another example,” he stated. “And the other thing is they’re eaten alive by Solana.”

他說：“這只是其自身成功的受害者，例如Myspace或其他具有很大網絡效果和動力的其他事物。黑莓就是另一個例子。” “另一件事是他們被索拉納（Solana）活著吃。”