經濟學家說

經濟學家亞歷山大（Alexkrüger）正在調整他的投資策略，以期預期他認為在美國經濟中可能會急劇放緩。

Economist Alex Krüger is adjusting his investment strategy in anticipation of what he believes could be a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.

經濟學家亞歷山大（Alexkrüger）正在調整他的投資策略，以期預期他認為在美國經濟中可能會急劇放緩。

In a recent interview, Krüger discussed the prospect of a recession, noting that early warning signs are beginning to emerge.

在最近的一次採訪中，克勞格（Krüger）討論了經濟衰退的前景，並指出預警信號開始出現。

“I’m expecting the effects to start being evident in June, and confirmation to show up in July,” he stated.

他說：“我希望這種效果將從6月開始顯而易見，並在7月份出現。”

To navigate the uncertainty, Krüger is reducing risk across his portfolio but remains invested in Bitcoin, which he sees as having a unique dual nature—part risk asset, part digital gold.

為了解決不確定性，克魯格（Krüger）正在降低他的投資組合中的風險，但仍在比特幣上投入投資，他認為這具有獨特的雙重性質 - 部分風險資產，部分是數字黃金。

“Now, I have a personal bias towards BTC, but I think it may be offering an unusual kind of asymmetry; it may perform relatively well both in a market that continues rallying, and in a market that turns quite defensive.”

“現在，我對BTC有個人的偏見，但我認為它可能會提供一種不尋常的不對稱性；在繼續集會的市場中，這兩者都可能相對良好，並且在一個變得非常防禦的市場中。”

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Krüger says the outlook is wide open, with the possibility of either a powerful bull run or a major market downturn like the 2008 crash.

展望2025年下半年，克勞格說，前景是敞開的，有強大的公牛奔跑或像2008年墜機一樣的主要市場衰退。

The deciding factor, he says, could be the direction of policy under President Trump’s second term, especially around fiscal decisions like tax cuts. For now, Krüger is operating on a middle-ground assumption. But Trump’s return has introduced a level of political unpredictability that adds a “massive left tail” to market risk—something that wouldn’t typically be priced in.

他說，決定性因素可能是特朗普總統第二任期下的政策方向，尤其是圍繞減稅等財政決定。目前，Krüger正在以中間地面假設進行操作。但是，特朗普的回歸引入了一定程度的政治不可預測性，為市場風險增加了“巨大的左尾”，這通常不會被定價。

As for altcoins, Krüger advises caution despite the recent interest in the space. He suggests against chasing rallies in a volatile macro environment.

至於Altcoins，儘管最近對該領域感興趣，但Krüger建議謹慎行事。他建議反對在揮發性的宏觀環境中追逐集會。

“There will be dips—many of them. So, I think patience will likely pay off more than FOMO behavior.”

“將會有傾角 - 許多人。