经济学家说

经济学家亚历山大（Alexkrüger）正在调整他的投资策略，以期预期他认为在美国经济中可能会急剧放缓。

Economist Alex Krüger is adjusting his investment strategy in anticipation of what he believes could be a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.

经济学家亚历山大（Alexkrüger）正在调整他的投资策略，以期预期他认为在美国经济中可能会急剧放缓。

In a recent interview, Krüger discussed the prospect of a recession, noting that early warning signs are beginning to emerge.

在最近的一次采访中，克劳格（Krüger）讨论了经济衰退的前景，并指出预警信号开始出现。

“I’m expecting the effects to start being evident in June, and confirmation to show up in July,” he stated.

他说：“我希望这种效果将从6月开始显而易见，并在7月份出现。”

To navigate the uncertainty, Krüger is reducing risk across his portfolio but remains invested in Bitcoin, which he sees as having a unique dual nature—part risk asset, part digital gold.

为了解决不确定性，克鲁格（Krüger）正在降低他的投资组合中的风险，但仍在比特币上投入投资，他认为这具有独特的双重性质 - 部分风险资产，部分是数字黄金。

“Now, I have a personal bias towards BTC, but I think it may be offering an unusual kind of asymmetry; it may perform relatively well both in a market that continues rallying, and in a market that turns quite defensive.”

“现在，我对BTC有个人的偏见，但我认为它可能会提供一种不寻常的不对称性；在继续集会的市场中，这两者都可能相对良好，并且在一个变得非常防御的市场中。”

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Krüger says the outlook is wide open, with the possibility of either a powerful bull run or a major market downturn like the 2008 crash.

展望2025年下半年，克劳格说，前景是敞开的，有强大的公牛奔跑或像2008年坠机一样的主要市场衰退。

The deciding factor, he says, could be the direction of policy under President Trump’s second term, especially around fiscal decisions like tax cuts. For now, Krüger is operating on a middle-ground assumption. But Trump’s return has introduced a level of political unpredictability that adds a “massive left tail” to market risk—something that wouldn’t typically be priced in.

他说，决定性因素可能是特朗普总统第二任期下的政策方向，尤其是围绕减税等财政决定。目前，Krüger正在以中间地面假设进行操作。但是，特朗普的回归引入了一定程度的政治不可预测性，为市场风险增加了“巨大的左尾”，这通常不会被定价。

As for altcoins, Krüger advises caution despite the recent interest in the space. He suggests against chasing rallies in a volatile macro environment.

至于Altcoins，尽管最近对该领域感兴趣，但Krüger建议谨慎行事。他建议反对在挥发性的宏观环境中追逐集会。

“There will be dips—many of them. So, I think patience will likely pay off more than FOMO behavior.”

“将会有倾角 - 许多人。