Recession Risks Rising, But Bitcoin Offers Unique Upside, Says Economist

Economist Alex Krüger is adjusting his investment strategy in anticipation of what he believes could be a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Economist Alex Krüger is adjusting his investment strategy in anticipation of what he believes could be a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy.

In a recent interview, Krüger discussed the prospect of a recession, noting that early warning signs are beginning to emerge.

“I’m expecting the effects to start being evident in June, and confirmation to show up in July,” he stated.

To navigate the uncertainty, Krüger is reducing risk across his portfolio but remains invested in Bitcoin, which he sees as having a unique dual nature—part risk asset, part digital gold.

“Now, I have a personal bias towards BTC, but I think it may be offering an unusual kind of asymmetry; it may perform relatively well both in a market that continues rallying, and in a market that turns quite defensive.”

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Krüger says the outlook is wide open, with the possibility of either a powerful bull run or a major market downturn like the 2008 crash.

The deciding factor, he says, could be the direction of policy under President Trump’s second term, especially around fiscal decisions like tax cuts. For now, Krüger is operating on a middle-ground assumption. But Trump’s return has introduced a level of political unpredictability that adds a “massive left tail” to market risk—something that wouldn’t typically be priced in.

As for altcoins, Krüger advises caution despite the recent interest in the space. He suggests against chasing rallies in a volatile macro environment.

“There will be dips—many of them. So, I think patience will likely pay off more than FOMO behavior.”