已實現價格指標如何幫助您預測比特幣 (BTC) 的下一步趨勢

雖然 MVRV Z 分數和 Pi 週期頂部等一些指標有助於識別市場頂部，但它們無法提供短期下行走勢的見解。這就是鏈上交易者實現價格發揮作用的地方。

Everyone in the crypto space has experienced the frustration of seeing Bitcoin plummet unexpectedly, just an hour or a day after buying a fresh stack. It leaves you thinking, “If only I knew, I would have bought it later for cheaper.” But what if there were some indicators that could help predict these downturns?

加密貨幣領域的每個人都經歷過看到比特幣在購買新堆疊一小時或一天後意外暴跌的挫折感。它會讓你想，“如果我知道的話，我稍後會以更便宜的價格購買它。”但如果有一些指標可以幫助預測這些衰退呢？

Some indicators, like the MVRV Z-score and the Pi Cycle Top, help identify market tops, but they don’t provide insights into short-term downward movements. This is where the on-chain trader realized price comes into play.

MVRV Z 分數和 Pi 週期頂部等一些指標有助於識別市場頂部，但它們無法提供短期下行走勢的見解。這就是鏈上交易者實現價格發揮作用的地方。

The on-chain trader realized price graph highlights a clear pattern in Bitcoin’s price movements from 2018 to 2024. Every time Bitcoin’s price falls below the on-chain trader realized price, it tends to drop further. On average, the price plummets -27% within 43 days.

鏈上交易者實現的價格圖表凸顯了 2018 年至 2024 年比特幣價格走勢的清晰模式。平均而言，價格在 43 天內暴跌 -27%。

Moreover, the realized price often serves as a dynamic support or resistance level. When Bitcoin’s price approaches this line from above, it sometimes bounces back up, using it as support. Conversely, when the price crosses below the realized price, it often fails to break through and declines further, using the line as resistance.

此外，已實現價格通常充當動態支撐或阻力位。當比特幣的價格從上方接近這條線時，它有時會反彈，並將其作為支撐。相反，當價格跌破已實現價格時，往往無法突破並進一步下跌，並以該線為阻力。

To understand why the realized price is such a powerful indicator, it’s important to grasp its underlying concept. The realized price represents the average price at which all current Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. When the market price falls below the realized price, it indicates that many holders are sitting on unrealized losses, which can create selling pressure and lead to further price declines.

要理解為什麼已實現價格是如此強大的指標，重要的是要掌握其基本概念。已實現價格代表所有當前比特幣持有者獲取其代幣的平均價格。當市場價格低於已實現價格時，表示許多持有者正承受未實現的損失，這可能會造成拋售壓力並導致價格進一步下跌。

This insight can be used by traders to predict potential downward movements. By closely monitoring when Bitcoin’s price crosses the realized price, traders can anticipate periods of heightened selling pressure and prepare accordingly.

交易者可以利用這種洞察力來預測潛在的下行走勢。透過密切監控比特幣價格何時穿越已實現價格，交易者可以預測拋售壓力加劇的時期並做出相應準備。

But the question may arise: If one knows that Bitcoin will fall, when should one buy back in?

但可能會出現一個問題：如果知道比特幣會下跌，什麼時候該回購？

First of all, one must understand that consistently selling at the top or buying at the bottom is nearly impossible. A trader might get lucky once, but repeating this feat consistently is improbable; otherwise, many would become very rich very quickly. However, one can analyze the price structure on the on-chain realized price graph. When Bitcoin’s price ceases to decline and begins to show an upward trend, it indicates a potential buy-back opportunity.

首先，我們必須明白，持續在頂部賣出或在底部買入幾乎是不可能的。交易者可能會幸運一次，但持續重複這項壯舉是不可能的；否則，許多人很快就會變得非常富有。然而，我們可以在鏈上實現的價格圖上分析價格結構。當比特幣的價格停止下跌並開始呈現上漲趨勢時，就表示有潛在的回購機會。

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can clearly reveal both the downward and upward trends. MACD is a tool that helps traders understand if the price of an asset is likely to go up or down. It uses two lines: the MACD line and the signal line. When the MACD line goes above the signal line, it might be a good time to buy. When it goes below the signal line, it might be a good time to sell. MACD also features red and green bars, known as the histogram, which represent the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. Green bars indicate increasing bullish momentum, while red bars indicate increasing bearish momentum.

移動平均線收斂分歧（MACD）可以清楚地揭示下降和上升趨勢。 MACD 是一種幫助交易者了解資產價格可能上漲還是下跌的工具。它使用兩條線：MACD 線和訊號線。當 MACD 線高於訊號線時，可能是買入的好時機。當價格跌破訊號線時，可能是賣出的好時機。 MACD 還具有紅色和綠色條形，稱為長條圖，代表 MACD 線和訊號線之間的差異。綠色條表示看漲勢頭增加，而紅色條表示看跌勢頭增加。

By using the on-chain trader realized price and MACD in tandem, traders can gain valuable insights into Bitcoin’s price movements. The combination allows traders to identify potential downward trends with high probability and anticipate the best times to re-enter the market.

透過同時使用鏈上交易者實現的價格和 MACD，交易者可以獲得有關比特幣價格走勢的寶貴見解。該組合使交易者能夠以高機率識別潛在的下降趨勢，並預測重新進入市場的最佳時機。