已实现价格指标如何帮助您预测比特币 (BTC) 的下一步走势

虽然 MVRV Z 得分和 Pi 周期顶部等一些指标有助于识别市场顶部，但它们无法提供短期下行走势的见解。这就是链上交易者实现价格发挥作用的地方。

Everyone in the crypto space has experienced the frustration of seeing Bitcoin plummet unexpectedly, just an hour or a day after buying a fresh stack. It leaves you thinking, “If only I knew, I would have bought it later for cheaper.” But what if there were some indicators that could help predict these downturns?

加密货币领域的每个人都经历过在购买新堆栈后一小时或一天看到比特币意外暴跌的挫败感。它会让你想，“如果我知道的话，我会稍后以更便宜的价格购买它。”但如果有一些指标可以帮助预测这些衰退呢？

Some indicators, like the MVRV Z-score and the Pi Cycle Top, help identify market tops, but they don’t provide insights into short-term downward movements. This is where the on-chain trader realized price comes into play.

MVRV Z 分数和 Pi 周期顶部等一些指标有助于识别市场顶部，但它们无法提供短期下行走势的见解。这就是链上交易者实现价格发挥作用的地方。

The on-chain trader realized price graph highlights a clear pattern in Bitcoin’s price movements from 2018 to 2024. Every time Bitcoin’s price falls below the on-chain trader realized price, it tends to drop further. On average, the price plummets -27% within 43 days.

链上交易者实现的价格图表凸显了 2018 年至 2024 年比特币价格走势的清晰模式。每次比特币的价格低于链上交易者实现的价格时，它往往会进一步下跌。平均而言，价格在 43 天内暴跌 -27%。

Moreover, the realized price often serves as a dynamic support or resistance level. When Bitcoin’s price approaches this line from above, it sometimes bounces back up, using it as support. Conversely, when the price crosses below the realized price, it often fails to break through and declines further, using the line as resistance.

此外，已实现价格通常充当动态支撑或阻力位。当比特币的价格从上方接近这条线时，它有时会反弹，并将其作为支撑。相反，当价格跌破已实现价格时，往往无法突破并进一步下跌，并以该线为阻力。

To understand why the realized price is such a powerful indicator, it’s important to grasp its underlying concept. The realized price represents the average price at which all current Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. When the market price falls below the realized price, it indicates that many holders are sitting on unrealized losses, which can create selling pressure and lead to further price declines.

要理解为什么已实现价格是一个如此强大的指标，重要的是要掌握其基本概念。已实现价格代表所有当前比特币持有者获取其代币的平均价格。当市场价格低于已实现价格时，表明许多持有者正承受未实现的损失，这可能会造成抛售压力并导致价格进一步下跌。

This insight can be used by traders to predict potential downward movements. By closely monitoring when Bitcoin’s price crosses the realized price, traders can anticipate periods of heightened selling pressure and prepare accordingly.

交易者可以利用这种洞察力来预测潜在的下行走势。通过密切监控比特币价格何时穿越已实现价格，交易者可以预测抛售压力加剧的时期并做出相应准备。

But the question may arise: If one knows that Bitcoin will fall, when should one buy back in?

但可能会出现一个问题：如果知道比特币会下跌，什么时候应该回购？

First of all, one must understand that consistently selling at the top or buying at the bottom is nearly impossible. A trader might get lucky once, but repeating this feat consistently is improbable; otherwise, many would become very rich very quickly. However, one can analyze the price structure on the on-chain realized price graph. When Bitcoin’s price ceases to decline and begins to show an upward trend, it indicates a potential buy-back opportunity.

首先，我们必须明白，持续在顶部卖出或在底部买入几乎是不可能的。交易者可能会幸运一次，但持续重复这一壮举是不可能的；否则，许多人很快就会变得非常富有。然而，我们可以在链上实现的价格图上分析价格结构。当比特币的价格停止下跌并开始呈现上涨趋势时，就表明存在潜在的回购机会。

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) can clearly reveal both the downward and upward trends. MACD is a tool that helps traders understand if the price of an asset is likely to go up or down. It uses two lines: the MACD line and the signal line. When the MACD line goes above the signal line, it might be a good time to buy. When it goes below the signal line, it might be a good time to sell. MACD also features red and green bars, known as the histogram, which represent the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. Green bars indicate increasing bullish momentum, while red bars indicate increasing bearish momentum.

移动平均线收敛分歧（MACD）可以清楚地揭示下降和上升趋势。 MACD 是一种帮助交易者了解资产价格可能上涨还是下跌的工具。它使用两条线：MACD 线和信号线。当 MACD 线高于信号线时，可能是买入的好时机。当价格跌破信号线时，可能是卖出的好时机。 MACD 还具有红色和绿色条形，称为柱状图，代表 MACD 线和信号线之间的差异。绿色条表示看涨势头增加，而红色条表示看跌势头增加。

By using the on-chain trader realized price and MACD in tandem, traders can gain valuable insights into Bitcoin’s price movements. The combination allows traders to identify potential downward trends with high probability and anticipate the best times to re-enter the market.

通过同时使用链上交易者实现的价格和 MACD，交易者可以获得有关比特币价格走势的宝贵见解。该组合使交易者能够以高概率识别潜在的下降趋势，并预测重新进入市场的最佳时机。