儘管表現不佳，但以太坊（ETH）可能坐在市場底部的區域

近年來，以太坊的表現不佳，包括2025年第1季度。但是，根據許多指標，Fidelity發布的最近的第1季度2025信號報告表明，以太坊被低估了。

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH) has encountered a period of underperformance, notably in Q1 of 2025. Nonetheless, a recent report by Fidelity, examining a variety of metrics, suggests that the second-largest cryptocurrency may be undervalued.

在不斷發展的加密貨幣景觀中，以太坊（ETH）遇到了一段表現不佳的時期，尤其是在2025年第1季度中。儘管如此，Fidelity最近的一份報告表明，第二大加密貨幣可能不足。

Despite poor performance, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that ETH may currently be sitting in a market bottoming zone, where it could be deemed as a good buying opportunity.

儘管表現不佳，但有理由謹慎樂觀，因為ETH目前可能坐在市場底部的區域，在那裡它可以被視為一個很好的購買機會。

Q1 has shown that ETH has been holding bearish momentum following a 45% drop from the January peak of US$3,579 (AU$5,606). ETH formed a ‘death cross’ in March, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) fell below the 200-day SMA.

第1季度表明，ETH從1月份的峰值下降了45％（澳元$ 5,606）之後一直保持看跌勢頭。 ETH在3月成立了一個“死亡十字架”，其中50天的簡單移動平均線（SMA）低於200天的SMA。

However, the MVRV Z-score, which is used to assess whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued in relation to its ‘fair value’, holds more reason for optimism. ETH scored -0.18 through this metric indicating that it is undervalued and that this may be a market bottom zone.

但是，用於評估資產是否被低估或與其“公允價值”相關的MVRV Z分數具有更多樂觀的理由。 ETH通過該指標得分-0.18，表明它被低估了，這可能是市場底層區域。

Ethereum’s market cap in relation to Bitcoin is at mid-2020 levels and has been persistently declining since the end of 2022. Fidelity labelled this trend as having taken place over 30 consecutive months. This indicates Ethereum’s performance in relation to Bitcoin has been poor.

以太坊與比特幣有關的市值處於2020年中期的水平，自2022年底以來一直在下降。富達將這一趨勢標記為連續30個月以來的趨勢。這表明以太坊在比特幣方面的性能很差。

The Signals Q1 2025 report also highlighted that the Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) Ratio, which assesses market sentiment, has a reading of 0 at the end of Q1 which is labelled as ‘capitulation’. This implies that much of the downtrend move may have already occurred.

信號Q1 2025報告還強調，評估市場情緒的淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）比率在Q1結束時讀數為0，標記為“投降”。這意味著可能已經發生了許多下降趨勢移動。

Other data suggests that an all-time-high of 13.6 million active addresses are interacting with Ethereum layer 2 networks. This is a positive sign for the scalability and activity of the Ethereum ecosystem.

其他數據表明，有1360萬個活動地址的歷史高峰正在與以太坊2層網絡相互作用。這是以太坊生態系統的可擴展性和活性的積極跡象。

Further data suggests that ETH has reclaimed above the 12-hour Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which suggests an uptrend, should ETH manage to stay above it. This is the first time this has occurred since December 2024.

進一步的數據表明，ETH已在12小時的Ichimoku雲指標上收回，這表明上升趨勢應設法保持在其上方。這是自2024年12月以來首次發生。

This looks clean afETH back above 12H cloud for first time since December https://t.co/bt0LL05Ajo pic.twitter.com/W26wPAksj4

自12月https://t.co/bt0ll05ajo pic.twitter.com/w26wpaksj4以來，這看起來很乾淨。

Persistent macro headwinds and bearish momentum still suggest that caution may be sensible. However, several metrics indicate that this may be a general bottoming and value zone for ETH.

持續的宏觀逆風和看跌動量仍然表明謹慎可能是明智的。但是，幾個指標表明這可能是ETH的一般底部和價值區域。

Fidelity mirrored this sentiment, suggesting that the metrics regarding ETH are positive from a long-term relative valuation, but that short-term traders need to proceed with caution.

富達反映了這種情緒，表明有關ETH的指標從長期的相對估值中是正面的，但是短期交易者需要謹慎行事。