尽管表现不佳，但以太坊（ETH）可能坐在市场底部的区域

近年来，以太坊的表现不佳，包括2025年第1季度。但是，根据许多指标，Fidelity发布的最近的第1季度2025信号报告表明，以太坊被低估了。

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH) has encountered a period of underperformance, notably in Q1 of 2025. Nonetheless, a recent report by Fidelity, examining a variety of metrics, suggests that the second-largest cryptocurrency may be undervalued.

在不断发展的加密货币景观中，以太坊（ETH）遇到了一段表现不佳的时期，尤其是在2025年第1季度中。尽管如此，Fidelity最近的一份报告表明，第二大加密货币可能不足。

Despite poor performance, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that ETH may currently be sitting in a market bottoming zone, where it could be deemed as a good buying opportunity.

尽管表现不佳，但有理由谨慎乐观，因为ETH目前可能坐在市场底部的区域，在那里它可以被视为一个很好的购买机会。

Q1 has shown that ETH has been holding bearish momentum following a 45% drop from the January peak of US$3,579 (AU$5,606). ETH formed a ‘death cross’ in March, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) fell below the 200-day SMA.

第1季度表明，ETH从1月份的峰值下降了45％（澳元$ 5,606）之后一直保持看跌势头。 ETH在3月成立了一个“死亡十字架”，其中50天的简单移动平均线（SMA）低于200天的SMA。

However, the MVRV Z-score, which is used to assess whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued in relation to its ‘fair value’, holds more reason for optimism. ETH scored -0.18 through this metric indicating that it is undervalued and that this may be a market bottom zone.

但是，用于评估资产是否被低估或与其“公允价值”相关的MVRV Z分数具有更多乐观的理由。 ETH通过该指标得分-0.18，表明它被低估了，这可能是市场底层区域。

Ethereum’s market cap in relation to Bitcoin is at mid-2020 levels and has been persistently declining since the end of 2022. Fidelity labelled this trend as having taken place over 30 consecutive months. This indicates Ethereum’s performance in relation to Bitcoin has been poor.

以太坊与比特币有关的市值处于2020年中期的水平，自2022年底以来一直在下降。富达将这一趋势标记为连续30个月以来的趋势。这表明以太坊在比特币方面的性能很差。

The Signals Q1 2025 report also highlighted that the Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) Ratio, which assesses market sentiment, has a reading of 0 at the end of Q1 which is labelled as ‘capitulation’. This implies that much of the downtrend move may have already occurred.

信号Q1 2025报告还强调，评估市场情绪的净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）比率在Q1结束时读数为0，标记为“投降”。这意味着可能已经发生了许多下降趋势移动。

Other data suggests that an all-time-high of 13.6 million active addresses are interacting with Ethereum layer 2 networks. This is a positive sign for the scalability and activity of the Ethereum ecosystem.

其他数据表明，有1360万个活动地址的历史高峰正在与以太坊2层网络相互作用。这是以太坊生态系统的可扩展性和活性的积极迹象。

Further data suggests that ETH has reclaimed above the 12-hour Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which suggests an uptrend, should ETH manage to stay above it. This is the first time this has occurred since December 2024.

进一步的数据表明，ETH已在12小时的Ichimoku云指标上收回，这表明上升趋势应设法保持在其上方。这是自2024年12月以来首次发生。

This looks clean afETH back above 12H cloud for first time since December https://t.co/bt0LL05Ajo pic.twitter.com/W26wPAksj4

自12月https://t.co/bt0ll05ajo pic.twitter.com/w26wpaksj4以来，这看起来很干净。

Persistent macro headwinds and bearish momentum still suggest that caution may be sensible. However, several metrics indicate that this may be a general bottoming and value zone for ETH.

持续的宏观逆风和看跌动量仍然表明谨慎可能是明智的。但是，几个指标表明这可能是ETH的一般底部和价值区域。

Fidelity mirrored this sentiment, suggesting that the metrics regarding ETH are positive from a long-term relative valuation, but that short-term traders need to proceed with caution.

富达反映了这种情绪，表明有关ETH的指标从长期的相对估值中是正面的，但是短期交易者需要谨慎行事。