費城聯邦（Philly Fed）4月的製造商業前景調查震撼了全球風險市場，並為加密貨幣資產提供

費城美聯儲5月份的製造商業前景調查的空前激增使全球風險市場震撼了

The massive surge in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey has jolted global risk markets and given crypto asset traders their clearest macro catalyst of the year.

費城美聯儲5月份的製造商業前景調查的巨大激增使全球風險市場震撼，並使加密貨幣資產交易員是一年中最清晰的宏觀催化劑。

What Happened: The massive reading on Monday saw the Future New Orders diffusion index rise by forty-plus points, a move that Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), called “literally” historic.

發生的事情是：週一的大量閱讀使未來的新訂單擴散指數提高了40多個點，這一舉動是全球宏觀投資者（GMI）宏觀研究負責人朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel），稱為“字面意義”。

“Philly Fed data for May dropped yesterday — and the Future New Orders index just made history. Literally. ... Expectations for new orders posted the largest monthly spike ever recorded — going all the way back to the index’s inception in May 1968. A staggering +4.3 standard deviation move,” Bittel said in a post on X.

“費城餵養的數據昨天下降了 - 未來的新訂單指數剛剛使歷史。……對新訂單的期望發布了有史以來最大的每月峰值 - 一直恢復到1968年5月的指數的成立。+4.3的標準偏差移動。

For perspective: that’s an even bigger move up than the downside collapse during the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-4.1σ). Let that sink in.

從角度來看：這比2008年全球金融危機（-4.1σ）深處的下行崩潰更大。讓那沉沒。

Philly Fed data for May dropped yesterday — and the Future New Orders index just made history. Literally.

Philly FED昨天五月的數據下降了 - 未來的新訂單指數剛剛創造了歷史。字面上地。

Expectations for new orders posted the largest monthly spike ever recorded — going all the way back to the index’s inception in May 1968. A staggering +4.3 standard deviation move.

對新訂單的期望發布了有史以來最大的每月峰值 - 一直可以追溯到1968年5月的指數成立。這是驚人的+4.3標準偏差動作。

— Julien Bittel (@globalmacrobias) May 16, 2024

-Julien Bittel（@globalmacrobias）2024年5月16日

Q1 growth was weak. The reason is straightforward — financial conditions tightened sharply in Q4. The dollar ripped, bond yields surged … a classic tightening phase. This set up a perfect storm for slower activity.

Q1增長薄弱。原因很簡單 - 財務狀況在第四季度急劇收緊。撕裂的美元，債券收益飆升……經典的收緊階段。這為較慢的活動奠定了完美的風暴。

Proximate trigger: businesses panic-loading inventories ahead of Trump tariffs, and markets front-running the inflation narrative. These dynamics are a direct replay of Q4 2016 during Trump’s first term. Just like early 2017, that tightening spilled over into slower growth momentum in Q1. We’ve highlighted repeatedly: this had all the hallmarks of Q4 2016 during Trump’s first term.

近距離觸發：企業在特朗普關稅之前對恐慌量的庫存進行了恐慌，並推銷了通貨膨脹敘事的正面運行。這些動態是特朗普第一學期的2016年第四季度的直接重播。就像2017年初一樣，在第一季度的增長勢頭越來越慢。我們反復強調：在特朗普的第一學期中，這具有2016年第四季度的所有標誌。

Where 2017 began with doubt and ended in a synchronous global boom, 2024 is rhyming. Those Q1 headwinds have flipped into Q2 tailwinds. Everything flows downstream from changes in financial conditions …

2017年開始懷疑，並以同步的全球繁榮結束，2024年是押韻。那些Q1的逆風已轉向Q2尾風。一切因財務狀況的變化而下游流動……

Purchasing managers’ expectations are shifting — and shifts in thinking eventually translate into action. Sentiment shifts first. Action follows. It always does. Bullish.

採購經理的期望正在轉移 - 思維的轉變最終轉化為行動。情緒首先改變。行動如下。總是這樣做。看漲。

Crypto traders responded accordingly, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $104,000 level in early-European trade, though it later slipped. Ether remained steady near the $2,600 mark, and high-beta layer-one tokens such as Solana and Avalanche also moved in tandem.

加密貨幣交易者做出了相應的回應，比特幣在早期貿易中收回了104,000美元的水平，儘管後來滑倒了。以太幣在2600美元的大關附近保持穩定，而索拉納（Solana）和雪崩等高貝塔（High-layer-One）代幣也在同時移動。

An upside economic shock like this — +4.3σ on new orders — is rare. But the bigger story is market positioning. Asset prices are not prepared. The melt-up is the asymmetric risk. Now it’s being repriced.

像這樣的上升經濟衝擊（新訂單上的 +4.3σ）很少見。但是更大的故事是市場定位。資產價格尚未準備好。融化是不對稱的風險。現在它正在重新確定。

Indeed, the scale of the shock is less important than how under-positioned investors are for an upside growth surprise. This is a buffer against further downside in the new year.

確實，衝擊的規模不如固定的投資者對上升增長的意外的重要性不大。這是針對新年進一步缺點的緩衝。

When this dropped, markets didn’t even blink. Because the shift’s already in motion. This wasn’t news, it was confirmation. That’s the real tell, when markets shrug off a four-sigma upside shock. It means the turn is already upon us — and it’s just getting started.

當這種情況下降時，市場甚至沒有閃爍。因為轉變已經在運動。這不是新聞，這是確認。這是真正的說明，當市場聳了聳肩，聳了聳肩。這意味著轉彎已經在我們身上，而且它才剛剛開始。

The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for May 2024 showed a massive shift in expectations for new orders. The diffusion index rose by a staggering 40-plus points to 38.0, marking the largest monthly spike in the index's history, which spans back to May 1968.

費城美聯儲在2024年5月的製造商業前景調查顯示，新訂單的期望發生了巨大變化。擴散指數的驚人40多個點上升到38.0，這是該指數歷史上最大的每月升高，該峰值可以追溯到1968年5月。

This surge was so significant that it surpassed even the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, where the index saw a -4.1 standard deviation move in the third quarter.

這種激增非常重要，以至於它甚至超過了2008年全球金融危機的深度，在該危機中，該指數在第三季度看到了-4.1標準偏差。

The survey's results also indicated a substantial increase in the employment diffusion index, which jumped from -12.0 to 10.0, the highest reading since April 2022.

該調查的結果還表明，就業擴散指數大幅增加，該指數從-12.0躍升至10.0，這是自2022年4月以來的最高讀數。

This optimistic economic snapshot stands in stark contrast to the pessimistic outlooks from both the New York Federal Reserve's Consumer Expectations Survey and the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for May.

這款樂觀的經濟快照與紐約美聯儲的消費者預期調查和密歇根大學最終消費者情感指數的悲觀前景形成了鮮明的對比。

These surveys highlighted consumers' dampened expectations for both inflation and income gains over the coming year.

這些調查強調了消費者對通貨膨脹和來年收入收入的期望減弱。

The crypto market responded accordingly, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $104,000 level in early-European trade, though it later slipped. Ether remained steady near the $2,600 mark, and high-beta layer-one tokens such as Solana and Avalanche also moved in tandem.

加密市場做出了相應的反應，比特幣在早期貿易中收回了104,000美元的水平，儘管後來下滑了。以太幣在2600美元的大關附近保持穩定，而索拉納（Solana）和雪崩等高貝塔（High-layer-One）代幣也在同時移動。

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.28 trillion.

發稿時，總加密市政上限為3.28萬億美元。