邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）概述了他極為看好的比特幣（BTC）價格預測（MSTR 0.74％）

策略（MSTR 0.74％）創始人兼首席執行官邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）是比特幣中最具聲音的公牛之一

Strategy (MSTR 0.74%) founder and Chief Executive Officer Michael Saylor is one of the most vocal of the Bitcoin (BTC -0.63%) bulls out there, and in recent days, he made yet another series of incredibly optimistic predictions about the coin’s growth during the coming decades. Saylor says he expects the price of Bitcoin to rise at a 30% annual rate during the next 20 years, bringing its price into the ballpark of $13 million per coin.

策略（MSTR 0.74％）創始人兼首席執行官邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）是比特幣（BTC -0.63％）公牛中最具發聲的公牛之一，最近幾天，他對未來幾十年來對硬幣的增長做出了又一系列令人難以置信的樂觀預測。塞勒說，他預計比特幣的價格將在未來20年內以每年30％的速度上漲，將其價格帶入每枚硬幣1300萬美元的球場。

For reference, its price is currently about $104,000, so Saylor’s projection appears to be, at least on its face, extraordinarily ambitious, bordering on fantastical, or perhaps even what some would describe as delusional. Could he be right, or is this just another instance of another celebrity portfolio manager making lofty predictions in the course of “talking his book” to attract fresh capital for his most important investment?

作為參考，其價格目前約為104,000美元，因此，至少在面部，Saylor的投影似乎非常雄心勃勃，與夢幻般的接壤，甚至有些人形容為妄想。他可以是對的，還是這只是另一個名人投資組合經理在“說話”過程中做出崇高預測的另一個實例，以吸引他最重要的投資的新資本？

The math is actually pretty favorable here

數學實際上在這裡非常有利

During the past 10 years, the price of Bitcoin rose by 43,820%. That puts its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) at 84%; during the past five years, its CAGR was 62%. Therefore, the back-of-the-napkin math for Saylor’s predicted growth rate looks to be on the conservative side relative to the coin’s historical performance.

在過去的10年中，比特幣的價格上漲了43,820％。這使其複合年增長率（CAGR）為84％；在過去的五年中，其複合年增長率為62％。因此，相對於硬幣的歷史表現而言，Saylor預測的增長率的納普金數學似乎是保守的。

Let’s emphasize that point: Saylor’s forecast for Bitcoin is based on a scenario in which it would consistently perform significantly worse than it has historically. But will this growth actually happen?

讓我們強調這一點：Saylor對比特幣的預測是基於一種情況，在這種情況下，它的表現始終如一地比歷史上的情況要差得多。但是這種增長實際上會發生嗎？

If it does, it certainly won’t occur such that the coin’s price marches upward each year in an orderly fashion. Multiple crashes of as much as 80% have already happened in Bitcoin’s history, and similar plunges will probably happen again. Notably, the asset has recovered from all of those plunges so far and gone on to reach higher highs afterward. It’s more probable than not that it will repeat those patterns.

如果確實如此，那肯定不會發生，以至於硬幣的價格每年都以有序的方式上漲。在比特幣的歷史中，多次崩潰已經發生了多達80％的崩潰，類似的暴跌可能會再次發生。值得注意的是，到目前為止，資產已經從所有這些暴跌中恢復過來，此後繼續達到更高的高點。它可能會重複這些模式。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

In the current era, there are also a handful of drivers for Bitcoin’s price that make it an attractive asset to hold even if it isn’t capable of growing by as much as Saylor is banking on. Governments, institutional investors, and major corporations are all evaluating whether to hold it on their balance sheets, or are already acquiring it. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are giving investors easier access to the asset. And that’s before even getting into the long-term drivers of its price performance, like its halving schedule and the scarcity that’s baked into the coin’s protocol.

在當前時代，還有少數比特幣價格的司機，即使它不能像塞勒（Saylor）的依靠那樣，它也使其成為有吸引力的資產。政府，機構投資者和主要公司都在評估是否將其持有資產負債表，還是已經收購了它。現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）使投資者更容易獲得資產。這甚至是進入其價格績效的長期驅動因素，例如其減半時間表和涉及硬幣協議中的稀缺性。

So all of those trends will contribute upward pressure on the price of the coin during the next 10 to 20 years, as well as providing boosts in the shorter term as the commanders of large volumes of capital implement their Bitcoin strategies.

因此，所有這些趨勢都將在未來10到20年內對硬幣的價格造成上調，並在較短的任期內提供提升，因為大量資本的指揮官實施了比特幣戰略。

Even Saylor is advising you not to bet the farm

甚至塞勒（Saylor）也建議您不要打賭農場

All of this is to say that Saylor could well be right about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. There isn’t any obvious barrier that would prevent the asset from compounding at the pace his forecast calls for.

所有這些都是說，Saylor對比特幣的長期軌跡很正確。沒有明顯的障礙可以阻止資產以他的預測呼籲加劇。

Nonetheless, he explicitly warns against quitting your day job in hopes that the coin’s price appreciation will carry the day for your personal finances. Nor is it advisable to sell your house to buy Bitcoin, nor to go into debt for the sake of accumulating it at a faster pace. The implications of a bright future for Bitcoin are no excuse to sacrifice the fundamentals of personal finance or your portfolio’s diversification.

儘管如此，他明確警告不要辭掉您的日常工作，希望硬幣的價格讚賞將為您的個人理財帶來一天。也不建議出售您的房子購買比特幣，也不建議以更快的速度積累債務。光明的未來對比特幣的含義並不是犧牲個人理財或您的投資組合多樣化的基本面的藉口。

However, if Saylor’s bullishness catches your imagination (as perhaps it should) what might make sense is to bump up the size of the allocation to Bitcoin in your portfolio. For conservative investors who might need their funds within the next five years, an allocation of 1% is reasonable, but for those with longer time frames, 5% or more could be a good idea. Just remember, you will only get the benefit of its price compounding over time if you keep your coins rather than sell them.

但是，如果Saylor的看漲抓住了您的想像力（也許應該如此），那可能是有意義的，那就是將投資組合中對比特幣的分配規模增加。對於可能在未來五年內需要資金的保守投資者來說，分配1％是合理的，但是對於那些時間較長的人來說，5％或更多的時間可能是一個好主意。請記住，如果您保留硬幣而不是出售它們，您只會隨著時間的推移而獲得其價格加重的好處。