费城联邦（Philly Fed）4月的制造商业前景调查震撼了全球风险市场，并为加密货币资产提供

费城美联储5月份的制造商业前景调查的空前激增使全球风险市场震撼了

The massive surge in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey has jolted global risk markets and given crypto asset traders their clearest macro catalyst of the year.

费城美联储5月份的制造商业前景调查的巨大激增使全球风险市场震撼，并使加密货币资产交易员是一年中最清晰的宏观催化剂。

What Happened: The massive reading on Monday saw the Future New Orders diffusion index rise by forty-plus points, a move that Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), called “literally” historic.

发生的事情是：周一的大量阅读使未来的新订单扩散指数提高了40多个点，这一举动是全球宏观投资者（GMI）宏观研究负责人朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel），称为“字面意义”。

“Philly Fed data for May dropped yesterday — and the Future New Orders index just made history. Literally. ... Expectations for new orders posted the largest monthly spike ever recorded — going all the way back to the index’s inception in May 1968. A staggering +4.3 standard deviation move,” Bittel said in a post on X.

“费城喂养的数据昨天下降了 - 未来的新订单指数刚刚使历史。……对新订单的期望发布了有史以来最大的每月峰值 - 一直恢复到1968年5月的指数的成立。+4.3的标准偏差移动。

For perspective: that’s an even bigger move up than the downside collapse during the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-4.1σ). Let that sink in.

从角度来看：这比2008年全球金融危机（-4.1σ）深处的下行崩溃更大。让那沉没。

Philly Fed data for May dropped yesterday — and the Future New Orders index just made history. Literally.

Philly FED昨天五月的数据下降了 - 未来的新订单指数刚刚创造了历史。字面上地。

Expectations for new orders posted the largest monthly spike ever recorded — going all the way back to the index’s inception in May 1968. A staggering +4.3 standard deviation move.

对新订单的期望发布了有史以来最大的每月峰值 - 一直可以追溯到1968年5月的指数成立。这是惊人的+4.3标准偏差动作。

— Julien Bittel (@globalmacrobias) May 16, 2024

-Julien Bittel（@globalmacrobias）2024年5月16日

Q1 growth was weak. The reason is straightforward — financial conditions tightened sharply in Q4. The dollar ripped, bond yields surged … a classic tightening phase. This set up a perfect storm for slower activity.

Q1增长薄弱。原因很简单 - 财务状况在第四季度急剧收紧。撕裂的美元，债券收益飙升……经典的收紧阶段。这为较慢的活动奠定了完美的风暴。

Proximate trigger: businesses panic-loading inventories ahead of Trump tariffs, and markets front-running the inflation narrative. These dynamics are a direct replay of Q4 2016 during Trump’s first term. Just like early 2017, that tightening spilled over into slower growth momentum in Q1. We’ve highlighted repeatedly: this had all the hallmarks of Q4 2016 during Trump’s first term.

近距离触发：企业在特朗普关税之前对恐慌量的库存进行了恐慌，并推销了通货膨胀叙事的正面运行。这些动态是特朗普第一学期的2016年第四季度的直接重播。就像2017年初一样，在第一季度的增长势头越来越慢。我们反复强调：在特朗普的第一学期中，这具有2016年第四季度的所有标志。

Where 2017 began with doubt and ended in a synchronous global boom, 2024 is rhyming. Those Q1 headwinds have flipped into Q2 tailwinds. Everything flows downstream from changes in financial conditions …

2017年开始怀疑，并以同步的全球繁荣结束，2024年是押韵。那些Q1的逆风已转向Q2尾风。一切因财务状况的变化而下游流动……

Purchasing managers’ expectations are shifting — and shifts in thinking eventually translate into action. Sentiment shifts first. Action follows. It always does. Bullish.

采购经理的期望正在转移 - 思维的转变最终转化为行动。情绪首先改变。行动如下。总是这样做。看涨。

Crypto traders responded accordingly, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $104,000 level in early-European trade, though it later slipped. Ether remained steady near the $2,600 mark, and high-beta layer-one tokens such as Solana and Avalanche also moved in tandem.

加密货币交易者做出了相应的回应，比特币在早期贸易中收回了104,000美元的水平，尽管后来滑倒了。以太币在2600美元的大关附近保持稳定，而索拉纳（Solana）和雪崩等高贝塔（High-layer-One）代币也在同时移动。

An upside economic shock like this — +4.3σ on new orders — is rare. But the bigger story is market positioning. Asset prices are not prepared. The melt-up is the asymmetric risk. Now it’s being repriced.

像这样的上升经济冲击（新订单上的 +4.3σ）很少见。但是更大的故事是市场定位。资产价格尚未准备好。融化是不对称的风险。现在它正在重新确定。

Indeed, the scale of the shock is less important than how under-positioned investors are for an upside growth surprise. This is a buffer against further downside in the new year.

确实，冲击的规模不如固定的投资者对上升增长的意外的重要性不大。这是针对新年进一步缺点的缓冲。

When this dropped, markets didn’t even blink. Because the shift’s already in motion. This wasn’t news, it was confirmation. That’s the real tell, when markets shrug off a four-sigma upside shock. It means the turn is already upon us — and it’s just getting started.

当这种情况下降时，市场甚至没有闪烁。因为转变已经在运动。这不是新闻，这是确认。这是真正的说明，当市场耸了耸肩，耸了耸肩。这意味着转弯已经在我们身上，而且它才刚刚开始。

The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for May 2024 showed a massive shift in expectations for new orders. The diffusion index rose by a staggering 40-plus points to 38.0, marking the largest monthly spike in the index's history, which spans back to May 1968.

费城美联储在2024年5月的制造商业前景调查显示，新订单的期望发生了巨大变化。扩散指数的惊人40多个点上升到38.0，这是该指数历史上最大的每月升高，该峰值可以追溯到1968年5月。

This surge was so significant that it surpassed even the depths of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, where the index saw a -4.1 standard deviation move in the third quarter.

这种激增非常重要，以至于它甚至超过了2008年全球金融危机的深度，在该危机中，该指数在第三季度看到了-4.1标准偏差。

The survey's results also indicated a substantial increase in the employment diffusion index, which jumped from -12.0 to 10.0, the highest reading since April 2022.

该调查的结果还表明，就业扩散指数大幅增加，该指数从-12.0跃升至10.0，这是自2022年4月以来的最高读数。

This optimistic economic snapshot stands in stark contrast to the pessimistic outlooks from both the New York Federal Reserve's Consumer Expectations Survey and the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for May.

这款乐观的经济快照与纽约美联储的消费者预期调查和密歇根大学最终消费者情感指数的悲观前景形成了鲜明的对比。

These surveys highlighted consumers' dampened expectations for both inflation and income gains over the coming year.

这些调查强调了消费者对通货膨胀和来年收入收入的期望减弱。

The crypto market responded accordingly, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $104,000 level in early-European trade, though it later slipped. Ether remained steady near the $2,600 mark, and high-beta layer-one tokens such as Solana and Avalanche also moved in tandem.

加密市场做出了相应的反应，比特币在早期贸易中收回了104,000美元的水平，尽管后来下滑了。以太币在2600美元的大关附近保持稳定，而索拉纳（Solana）和雪崩等高贝塔（High-layer-One）代币也在同时移动。

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.28 trillion.

发稿时，总加密市政上限为3.28万亿美元。