永續合約、對沖和另類期權：紐約人的看法

永續合約並不總是我們所期望的對沖英雄。讓我們剖析風險並探索更智能的加密保護替代方案。

Perpetual Contracts, Hedging, and Alternatives: A New Yorker's Take

永續合約、對沖和另類期權：紐約人的看法

Alright, folks, let's get real about perpetual contracts. They're supposed to be these super-efficient hedging tools, right? But recent market mayhem is showing us they might be more like a ticking time bomb. Time to ditch the hype and explore some smarter ways to protect your crypto stash.

好吧，伙計們，讓我們來了解一下永續合約吧。它們應該是超高效的對沖工具，對嗎？但最近的市場混亂向我們表明，它們可能更像是一顆定時炸彈。是時候拋棄炒作並探索一些更明智的方法來保護您的加密貨幣藏品了。

The Perilous Promise of Perpetual Contracts

永續合約的危險承諾

So, what's the deal? Perpetual contracts, those derivatives with no expiration date, were supposed to be a game-changer. But events like the "10.11" incident – where billions in leveraged positions got wiped out – have exposed some serious flaws. These aren't just theoretical risks; they're real-world disasters waiting to happen.

那麼，到底是怎麼回事呢？永續合約，即那些沒有到期日的衍生品，被認為會改變遊戲規則。但像“10.11”事件這樣的事件——數十億的槓桿頭寸被消滅——暴露了一些嚴重的缺陷。這些不僅僅是理論上的風險，也是現實中的風險。它們是現實世界即將發生的災難。

ADL: The Anti-Hedging Mechanism

ADL：反對沖機制

Automatic deleveraging (ADL) sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie, but it's very real, and it's bad news for hedgers. When an exchange can't cover losses from bankrupt positions, it forcefully closes profitable ones. Guess who's targeted? That's right, your carefully constructed hedge. Suddenly, you're holding a naked position in a volatile market. Not ideal.

自動去槓桿化（ADL）聽起來像是科幻電影中的東西，但它卻非常真實，對套期保值者來說是個壞消息。當交易所無法彌補破產頭寸的損失時，它會強制關閉盈利的頭寸。猜猜誰是目標？沒錯，就是你精心建造的樹籬。突然間，您在波動的市場中持有裸倉。不理想。

Imagine this: You're long on Bitcoin, and you short a BTC contract to hedge. Then, BAM! The market goes crazy, and ADL liquidates your short position. Now you're stuck with a leveraged long position and a rapidly dwindling portfolio. Thanks, ADL!

想像一下：您做多比特幣，並做空比特幣合約進行對沖。然後，嘭！市場變得瘋狂，ADL 會清算您的空頭頭寸。現在，您陷入了槓桿多頭頭寸和迅速縮減的投資組合之中。謝謝，阿德勒！

Market Maker Mayhem

做市商混亂

Market makers, those supposed pillars of stability, aren't always reliable either. During the "10.11" incident, order book depth for major trading pairs plummeted. Why? Because market makers, facing ADL themselves, pulled their liquidity to cut losses. So, when you need it most, that liquid market you were counting on? Gone. Vanished. Poof.

做市商，那些所謂的穩定支柱，也並不總是可靠的。 “10.11”事件期間，主要交易對的訂單深度大幅下降。為什麼？因為做市商自己面對ADL，拉動流動性以減少損失。那麼，當您最需要的時候，您所依賴的流動性市場呢？走了。消失了。噗。

Oracle Issues and Cross-Margining Catastrophes

甲骨文問題和跨保證金災難

And let's not forget oracle failures. When exchange pricing systems go haywire, liquidations can happen even if your assets are fundamentally sound. Plus, cross-margining – where all your positions are backed by your entire account – can turn isolated risks into portfolio-wide disasters. One bad apple really can spoil the whole bunch.

我們不要忘記預言機的失敗。當交易所定價系統失控時，即使您的資產基本健全，也可能會發生清算。此外，交叉保證金（您的所有頭寸均由整個賬戶支持）可能會將孤立的風險變成整個投資組合的災難。一個壞蘋果確實可以毀掉一大堆。

The 1x Leverage Illusion

1x 槓桿錯覺

Thinking 1x leverage is safe? Think again. The XPL/PLASMA incident showed that even a conservative hedge can get wrecked by price manipulation. Whales can pump up the price, drain the order book, and liquidate your position faster than you can say "decentralized finance."

認為 1 倍槓桿安全嗎？再想一想。 XPL/PLASMA 事件表明，即使是保守的對沖也可能因價格操縱而遭到破壞。鯨魚可以抬高價格，耗盡訂單簿，並比你所說的“去中心化金融”更快地清算你的頭寸。

So, What's a Crypto Investor to Do?

那麼，加密貨幣投資者應該做什麼？

Okay, perpetual contracts might not be the hedging panacea we hoped for. But that doesn't mean you're doomed. Here are some guidelines for reducing (but not eliminating) risk:

好吧，永續合約可能不是我們所希望的對沖靈丹妙藥。但這並不意味著你注定失敗。以下是一些降低（但不是消除）風險的指南：

• Capital is King: Forget capital efficiency. To safely hedge, you need serious funds – like, 1.5 to 2 times your position size. If you're short on capital, don't even bother.
• Stop-Loss or Bust: Always, always set stop-loss and take-profit orders before opening a position. A delta-neutral strategy isn't "set it and forget it."
• Diversify, Diversify, Diversify: Don't put all your eggs in one exchange's basket. Spread your hedges across multiple platforms to mitigate operational risks.
• Leverage Limits: Keep it at 1x, max. If that seems inefficient, perpetual hedging isn't for you.
• Eyes on the Screen: Crypto markets don't sleep, and neither should your monitoring. If you can't monitor 24/7, hire a team, automate, or just walk away.

The Ultimate Alternative: Don't Hedge at All

最終選擇：根本不進行對沖

Here's the harsh truth: For 95% of users, perpetual swaps are more speculative tool than hedge. They work great when you don't need them, but fail when you do. So, unless you're a specialized pro with deep pockets, consider ditching them altogether.

這是殘酷的事實：對於 95% 的用戶來說，永續合約更像是投機工具，而不是對沖工具。當您不需要它們時，它們會很好地工作，但當您需要它們時，它們就會失敗。因此，除非您是財力雄厚的專業人士，否則請考慮完全放棄它們。

Smarter Strategies for Crypto Protection

更智能的加密保護策略

Instead of relying on flawed hedging tools, focus on these strategies:

不要依賴有缺陷的對沖工具，而應關注以下策略：

• Reduce Leverage: Simple, but effective. Less leverage means less risk.
• Allocate Assets Wisely: Diversify across truly diverse assets.
• Accept the Unhedgeable: Some risks just can't be hedged. Focus on avoiding them as much as possible.

Alternatives to Chumba Casino

Chumba 賭場的替代方案

Chumba Casino has emerged as a leader in the U.S. sweepstakes market since its launch in 2017. It attracts over one million players worldwide due to its unique sweepstakes model, where you play using two types of virtual currencies: Gold Coins (GC) for fun, and Sweeps Coins (SC) for games that offer the chance to win real prizes. Here are the best alternatives to Chumba Casino:

自 2017 年推出以來，Chumba Casino 已成為美國抽獎市場的領導者。由於其獨特的抽獎模式，它在全球吸引了超過 100 萬玩家，在該模式中，您可以使用兩種類型的虛擬貨幣進行遊戲：金幣 (GC) 供娛樂，而掃彩幣 (SC) 則提供有機會贏得真正獎品的遊戲。以下是 Chumba 賭場的最佳替代方案：

• Wild Casino
• Red Dog Casino
• El Royale
• Slots Empire
• Sun Palace Casino
• Stake.us
• Real Prize
• MegaBonanza
• WOW Vegas
• McLuck

The Bottom Line

底線

Let's stop pretending perpetual swaps are reliable hedging tools for everyday users. They're speculative instruments, useful for price discovery and arbitrage, but dangerous when used improperly. The "10.11" incident proved they transform market risk into operational risk, and those risks tend to trigger simultaneously. So, the best hedging strategy? Avoid hedging altogether. Reduce leverage, allocate wisely, and profit gradually. Now go enjoy that avocado toast.

讓我們停止假裝永續合約是日常用戶可靠的對沖工具。它們是投機工具，對於價格發現和套利很有用，但如果使用不當就會很危險。 “10.11”事件證明，他們將市場風險轉化為操作風險，並且這些風險往往同時觸發。那麼，最好的對沖策略是什麼？完全避免對沖。降低杠桿，明智配置，逐步獲利。現在去享受鱷梨吐司吧。