永续合约、对冲和另类期权：纽约人的看法

永续合约并不总是我们所期望的对冲英雄。让我们剖析风险并探索更智能的加密保护替代方案。

Perpetual Contracts, Hedging, and Alternatives: A New Yorker's Take

永续合约、对冲和另类期权：纽约人的看法

Alright, folks, let's get real about perpetual contracts. They're supposed to be these super-efficient hedging tools, right? But recent market mayhem is showing us they might be more like a ticking time bomb. Time to ditch the hype and explore some smarter ways to protect your crypto stash.

好吧，伙计们，让我们来了解一下永续合约吧。它们应该是超高效的对冲工具，对吗？但最近的市场混乱向我们表明，它们可能更像是一颗定时炸弹。是时候抛弃炒作并探索一些更明智的方法来保护您的加密货币藏品了。

The Perilous Promise of Perpetual Contracts

永续合约的危险承诺

So, what's the deal? Perpetual contracts, those derivatives with no expiration date, were supposed to be a game-changer. But events like the "10.11" incident – where billions in leveraged positions got wiped out – have exposed some serious flaws. These aren't just theoretical risks; they're real-world disasters waiting to happen.

那么，到底是怎么回事呢？永续合约，即那些没有到期日的衍生品，被认为会改变游戏规则。但像“10.11”事件这样的事件——数十亿的杠杆头寸被消灭——暴露了一些严重的缺陷。这些不仅仅是理论上的风险，也是现实中的风险。它们是现实世界即将发生的灾难。

ADL: The Anti-Hedging Mechanism

ADL：反对冲机制

Automatic deleveraging (ADL) sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie, but it's very real, and it's bad news for hedgers. When an exchange can't cover losses from bankrupt positions, it forcefully closes profitable ones. Guess who's targeted? That's right, your carefully constructed hedge. Suddenly, you're holding a naked position in a volatile market. Not ideal.

自动去杠杆化（ADL）听起来像是科幻电影中的东西，但它却非常真实，对套期保值者来说是个坏消息。当交易所无法弥补破产头寸的损失时，它会强制关闭盈利的头寸。猜猜谁是目标？没错，就是你精心建造的树篱。突然间，您在波动的市场中持有裸仓。不理想。

Imagine this: You're long on Bitcoin, and you short a BTC contract to hedge. Then, BAM! The market goes crazy, and ADL liquidates your short position. Now you're stuck with a leveraged long position and a rapidly dwindling portfolio. Thanks, ADL!

想象一下：您做多比特币，并做空比特币合约进行对冲。然后，嘭！市场变得疯狂，ADL 会清算您的空头头寸。现在，您陷入了杠杆多头头寸和迅速缩减的投资组合之中。谢谢，阿德勒！

Market Maker Mayhem

做市商混乱

Market makers, those supposed pillars of stability, aren't always reliable either. During the "10.11" incident, order book depth for major trading pairs plummeted. Why? Because market makers, facing ADL themselves, pulled their liquidity to cut losses. So, when you need it most, that liquid market you were counting on? Gone. Vanished. Poof.

做市商，那些所谓的稳定支柱，也并不总是可靠的。 “10.11”事件期间，主要交易对的订单深度大幅下降。为什么？因为做市商自己面对ADL，拉动流动性以减少损失。那么，当您最需要的时候，您所依赖的流动性市场呢？走了。消失了。噗。

Oracle Issues and Cross-Margining Catastrophes

甲骨文问题和跨保证金灾难

And let's not forget oracle failures. When exchange pricing systems go haywire, liquidations can happen even if your assets are fundamentally sound. Plus, cross-margining – where all your positions are backed by your entire account – can turn isolated risks into portfolio-wide disasters. One bad apple really can spoil the whole bunch.

我们不要忘记预言机的失败。当交易所定价系统失控时，即使您的资产基本健全，也可能会发生清算。此外，交叉保证金（您的所有头寸均由整个账户支持）可能会将孤立的风险变成整个投资组合的灾难。一个坏苹果确实可以毁掉一大堆。

The 1x Leverage Illusion

1x 杠杆错觉

Thinking 1x leverage is safe? Think again. The XPL/PLASMA incident showed that even a conservative hedge can get wrecked by price manipulation. Whales can pump up the price, drain the order book, and liquidate your position faster than you can say "decentralized finance."

认为 1 倍杠杆安全吗？再想一想。 XPL/PLASMA 事件表明，即使是保守的对冲也可能因价格操纵而遭到破坏。鲸鱼可以抬高价格，耗尽订单簿，并比你所说的“去中心化金融”更快地清算你的头寸。

So, What's a Crypto Investor to Do?

那么，加密货币投资者应该做什么？

Okay, perpetual contracts might not be the hedging panacea we hoped for. But that doesn't mean you're doomed. Here are some guidelines for reducing (but not eliminating) risk:

好吧，永续合约可能不是我们所希望的对冲灵丹妙药。但这并不意味着你注定失败。以下是一些降低（但不是消除）风险的指南：

• Capital is King: Forget capital efficiency. To safely hedge, you need serious funds – like, 1.5 to 2 times your position size. If you're short on capital, don't even bother.
• Stop-Loss or Bust: Always, always set stop-loss and take-profit orders before opening a position. A delta-neutral strategy isn't "set it and forget it."
• Diversify, Diversify, Diversify: Don't put all your eggs in one exchange's basket. Spread your hedges across multiple platforms to mitigate operational risks.
• Leverage Limits: Keep it at 1x, max. If that seems inefficient, perpetual hedging isn't for you.
• Eyes on the Screen: Crypto markets don't sleep, and neither should your monitoring. If you can't monitor 24/7, hire a team, automate, or just walk away.

The Ultimate Alternative: Don't Hedge at All

最终选择：根本不进行对冲

Here's the harsh truth: For 95% of users, perpetual swaps are more speculative tool than hedge. They work great when you don't need them, but fail when you do. So, unless you're a specialized pro with deep pockets, consider ditching them altogether.

这是残酷的事实：对于 95% 的用户来说，永续合约更像是投机工具，而不是对冲工具。当您不需要它们时，它们会很好地工作，但当您需要它们时，它们就会失败。因此，除非您是财力雄厚的专业人士，否则请考虑完全放弃它们。

Smarter Strategies for Crypto Protection

更智能的加密保护策略

Instead of relying on flawed hedging tools, focus on these strategies:

不要依赖有缺陷的对冲工具，而应关注以下策略：

• Reduce Leverage: Simple, but effective. Less leverage means less risk.
• Allocate Assets Wisely: Diversify across truly diverse assets.
• Accept the Unhedgeable: Some risks just can't be hedged. Focus on avoiding them as much as possible.

Alternatives to Chumba Casino

Chumba 赌场的替代方案

Chumba Casino has emerged as a leader in the U.S. sweepstakes market since its launch in 2017. It attracts over one million players worldwide due to its unique sweepstakes model, where you play using two types of virtual currencies: Gold Coins (GC) for fun, and Sweeps Coins (SC) for games that offer the chance to win real prizes. Here are the best alternatives to Chumba Casino:

自 2017 年推出以来，Chumba Casino 已成为美国抽奖市场的领导者。由于其独特的抽奖模式，它在全球吸引了超过 100 万玩家，在该模式中，您可以使用两种类型的虚拟货币进行游戏：金币 (GC) 供娱乐，而扫彩币 (SC) 则提供有机会赢得真正奖品的游戏。以下是 Chumba 赌场的最佳替代方案：

• Wild Casino
• Red Dog Casino
• El Royale
• Slots Empire
• Sun Palace Casino
• Stake.us
• Real Prize
• MegaBonanza
• WOW Vegas
• McLuck

The Bottom Line

底线

Let's stop pretending perpetual swaps are reliable hedging tools for everyday users. They're speculative instruments, useful for price discovery and arbitrage, but dangerous when used improperly. The "10.11" incident proved they transform market risk into operational risk, and those risks tend to trigger simultaneously. So, the best hedging strategy? Avoid hedging altogether. Reduce leverage, allocate wisely, and profit gradually. Now go enjoy that avocado toast.

让我们停止假装永续合约是日常用户可靠的对冲工具。它们是投机工具，对于价格发现和套利很有用，但如果使用不当就会很危险。 “10.11”事件证明，他们将市场风险转化为操作风险，并且这些风险往往同时触发。那么，最好的对冲策略是什么？完全避免对冲。降低杠杆，明智配置，逐步获利。现在去享受鳄梨吐司吧。