世界是Netflix（NASDAQ：NFLX）牡蠣。到2030年，這是1萬億美元的市值目標的數學

通過雲處理處理的視頻流將媒體部門變成了真正的全球遊戲。 Netflix利用了這個全球派，投資於在歐洲，拉丁美洲，韓國和印度等市場上專門製作視頻。

World is oyster for Netflix as it aims for $1 trillion market cap by 2030

世界是Netflix的牡蠣，因為它的目標是到2030年達到1萬億美元的市值

(Image: Getty)

（圖片：Getty）

Video streaming processed through the cloud has turned the media sector into a truly worldwide game. This is how Netflix (NASDAQ:) has been able to grow so large, investing to produce video specifically in markets such as Europe, Latin America, South Korea, and India.

通過雲處理處理的視頻流將媒體部門變成了真正的全球遊戲。這就是Netflix（NASDAQ :)能夠成長如此大的方式，投資於在歐洲，拉丁美洲，韓國和印度等市場上專門製作視頻。

That global expansion is how it eclipsed 300 million total subscribers at the end of 2024, making it the largest pure-play premium video streamer in the world. With a global population of 8 billion and rising use of the internet every year, there is plenty of room to expand its total subscribers in the years to come.

全球擴張是它在2024年底黯然失色的總訂閱者的方式，使其成為世界上最大的純高級視頻流媒體。每年的全球人口為80億，使用互聯網的使用量增加，在未來幾年中，有足夠的空間可以擴大其總訂戶。

Another factor for success is pricing power. In the U.S., its premium subscription tier has gone from $11.99 a month in 2013 to $24.99 currently. This more than doubling in monthly subscription fees has helped revenue grow by close to 600% in the last 10 years.

成功的另一個因素是定價能力。在美國，其高級訂閱層已從2013年的每月11.99美元增加到目前的24.99美元。在過去的10年中，每月訂閱費用增加了一倍以上，這使收入增長了近600％。

More importantly, it has helped the company gain some operating leverage over its cost base, with operating income inflecting higher to $11.3 billion in the last few years. Free cash flow is now positive at $7.5 billion over the last 12 months, giving the company the flexibility to keep pushing for more growth globally.

更重要的是，它幫助公司在其成本基礎上獲得了一些運營槓桿作用，過去幾年的營業收入增長到113億美元。在過去的12個月中，自由現金流現在為75億美元，使該公司具有繼續推動全球增長的靈活性。

NFLX Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.

YCHARTS的NFLX操作保證金（TTM）數據； TTM =落後12個月。

Investors should be aware that these figures are still preliminary and may be revised in the coming months.

投資者應意識到，這些數字仍然是初步的，並且可以在未來幾個月內進行修訂。

According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, management aims to double its revenue to $80 billion in 2030 and triple its operating income to around $30 billion. Advertising revenue of $9 billion will be a large part of that equation.

根據《華爾街日報》的報導，管理層的目標是將其收入翻一番，達到2030年的800億美元，並將其營業收入增加三倍，達到300億美元。廣告收入為90億美元將是該方程式的很大一部分。

How will the company do it? It hopes to grow its total subscribers to 410 million compared to 300 million at the end of 2024. However, that would only lead to about a 30% increase in revenue assuming no changes to subscription pricing.

公司將如何做？它希望將其總訂閱者增加到4.1億，而到2024年底，其總訂閱者為3億美元。但是，假設訂閱價格沒有變化，則只會導致收入增加約30％。

What this means is that Netflix will need to continue increasing the price of its subscription service while simultaneously growing advertising sales if it hopes to double revenue in the next seven years. This is a tall task, but one it is poised to achieve.

這意味著Netflix將需要繼續提高其訂閱服務的價格，同時增加廣告銷售的價格，如果它希望在未來七年內獲得一倍的收入。這是一項艱鉅的任務，但它有望實現。

Tripling operating income to $30 billion feels doable as well. Expanding operating margins is not something a company can do indefinitely, but N has consistently pushed up its operating margin in the last 10 years, hitting 28% in the last 12 months. I think the company can keep expanding its profit margins as it scales up to greater heights in the years to come.

將營業收入達到300億美元的三元，這也是可行的。公司無限期可以做到的業務利潤率並不是一項無限期的事情，但是N在過去十年中一直在提高其營業利潤率，在過去的12個月中達到了28％。我認為，隨著未來幾年的擴大到更高的高度，該公司可以繼續擴大其利潤率。

That $30 billion in operating income likely equates to $25 billion in net income when factoring in corporate tax rates. Should N be valued at a trillion-dollar market cap if it generates $25 billion in net income? Maybe. That is a P/E ratio of 40, which is well above the average for stocks, even durable growers like N.

在公司稅率方面，這筆300億美元的營業收入可能相當於250億美元的淨收入。如果n產生250億美元的淨收入，應該在萬億美元的市值中估值嗎？或許。這是40個比率，遠高於股票的平均值，甚至像N. N.

It is possible, but not a guarantee, that the market cap will double to $1 trillion in the next seven years. We have no idea what the stock's future P/E will be.

在未來七年中，市值將翻一番，達到1萬億美元，這是有可能的，但不能保證。我們不知道該股票的未來是什麼。

It still remains a good hold for investors who have bought the stock in the past. However, I don't think N is a strong buy today.

對於過去購買了該股票的投資者來說，這仍然是一個良好的持股。但是，我認為N不是今天的強勁買入。